| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.247959489735664 |
| beta | 0.0345337296488464 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 110.643162393162 | 4.3568376068376 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.073143387588 | 3.92685661241249 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.430132053629 | 3.56986794637126 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.062503983317 | 2.93749601668324 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.06322697046 | 1.93677302953955 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.49906238458 | 1.5009376154205 |
| 19 | 170 | 160.131347416214 | 9.86865258378592 |
| 20 | 170 | 163.506325051358 | 6.4936749486416 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.850050071909 | 4.14994992809099 |
| 22 | 133 | 138.731495445679 | -5.73149544567943 |
| 23 | 114 | 123.321997399523 | -9.32199739952262 |
| 24 | 140 | 135.609043041042 | 4.39095695895753 |
| 25 | 145 | 136.860463840114 | 8.13953615988575 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.177864159562 | 0.822135840438222 |
| 27 | 178 | 163.742778738725 | 14.2572212612748 |
| 28 | 163 | 160.88736830728 | 2.11263169271962 |
| 29 | 172 | 151.26166711948 | 20.7383328805198 |
| 30 | 178 | 180.52345193849 | -2.52345193848959 |
| 31 | 199 | 198.907941418777 | 0.092058581222858 |
| 32 | 199 | 197.694112643343 | 1.30588735665711 |
| 33 | 184 | 185.317990243194 | -1.31799024319412 |
| 34 | 162 | 161.694628859308 | 0.305371140692131 |
| 35 | 146 | 145.415787851416 | 0.584212148584157 |
| 36 | 166 | 170.890657487436 | -4.89065748743587 |
| 37 | 171 | 172.999007307477 | -1.99900730747703 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.551972077214 | 2.44802792278551 |
| 39 | 193 | 202.890186966571 | -9.8901869665709 |
| 40 | 181 | 184.973617184963 | -3.97361718496342 |
| 41 | 183 | 187.853581322793 | -4.85358132279288 |
| 42 | 218 | 193.064187605335 | 24.9358123946645 |
| 43 | 230 | 220.247948846114 | 9.75205115388616 |
| 44 | 242 | 222.448490221367 | 19.5515097786325 |
| 45 | 209 | 212.885752351814 | -3.88575235181398 |
| 46 | 191 | 190.087007403602 | 0.912992596398055 |
| 47 | 172 | 174.414218571941 | -2.41421857194123 |
| 48 | 194 | 195.248286577793 | -1.24828657779273 |
| 49 | 196 | 200.685635881058 | -4.68563588105766 |
| 50 | 196 | 208.144971709426 | -12.1449717094265 |
| 51 | 236 | 220.689112540808 | 15.310887459192 |
| 52 | 235 | 213.789920520889 | 21.2100794791108 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.78733174053 | 6.21266825947043 |
| 54 | 243 | 253.774189579802 | -10.7741895798021 |
| 55 | 264 | 261.008168974429 | 2.99183102557083 |
| 56 | 272 | 269.167807518785 | 2.83219248121492 |
| 57 | 237 | 237.95618678454 | -0.956186784540108 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.640392882199 | -8.64039288219888 |
| 59 | 180 | 199.162435425533 | -19.1624354255328 |
| 60 | 201 | 216.642919355326 | -15.6429193553259 |
| 61 | 204 | 215.725163322482 | -11.7251633224818 |
| 62 | 188 | 215.568185948207 | -27.5681859482067 |
| 63 | 235 | 244.542771479216 | -9.54277147921556 |
| 64 | 227 | 235.31134790509 | -8.3113479050898 |
| 65 | 234 | 224.851226946988 | 9.14877305301204 |
| 66 | 264 | 242.957703039886 | 21.0422969601138 |
| 67 | 302 | 267.87231929887 | 34.12768070113 |
| 68 | 293 | 283.337779746877 | 9.66222025312288 |
| 69 | 259 | 250.73464699118 | 8.2653530088202 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.769483300912 | 0.230516699088298 |
| 71 | 203 | 202.497007296172 | 0.502992703827601 |
| 72 | 229 | 227.587791285749 | 1.41220871425051 |
| 73 | 242 | 234.078621708003 | 7.92137829199709 |
| 74 | 233 | 227.280122971019 | 5.71987702898087 |
| 75 | 267 | 278.751213081094 | -11.7512130810941 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.565926630949 | -1.56592663094943 |
| 77 | 270 | 275.634536741208 | -5.63453674120763 |
| 78 | 315 | 299.618595266554 | 15.3814047334461 |
| 79 | 364 | 333.520636813285 | 30.4793631867149 |
| 80 | 347 | 330.201563104206 | 16.7984368957938 |
| 81 | 312 | 298.897647562399 | 13.1023524376009 |
| 82 | 274 | 272.710985777355 | 1.28901422264516 |
| 83 | 237 | 247.536595543642 | -10.5365955436417 |
| 84 | 278 | 271.10995278984 | 6.89004721015976 |
| 85 | 284 | 284.437307658674 | -0.437307658673717 |
| 86 | 277 | 274.422083339496 | 2.57791666050417 |
| 87 | 317 | 312.459730593007 | 4.54026940699339 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.597926811577 | -3.59792681157705 |
| 89 | 318 | 318.709630586872 | -0.709630586872152 |
| 90 | 374 | 360.368584499747 | 13.6314155002531 |
| 91 | 413 | 405.824869710265 | 7.17513028973542 |
| 92 | 405 | 386.87301988306 | 18.1269801169402 |
| 93 | 355 | 353.564640637353 | 1.43535936264743 |
| 94 | 306 | 315.946740877587 | -9.94674087758722 |
| 95 | 271 | 279.342602124885 | -8.34260212488476 |
| 96 | 306 | 316.83391044474 | -10.8339104447398 |
| 97 | 315 | 320.372592752745 | -5.37259275274511 |
| 98 | 301 | 311.475546446946 | -10.4755464469458 |
| 99 | 356 | 347.714814000745 | 8.28518599925457 |
| 100 | 348 | 346.655993774084 | 1.3440062259159 |
| 101 | 355 | 352.202179299066 | 2.79782070093381 |
| 102 | 422 | 405.582887635467 | 16.4171123645327 |
| 103 | 465 | 446.96537959721 | 18.0346204027904 |
| 104 | 467 | 439.12632237637 | 27.8736776236295 |
| 105 | 404 | 395.949259167777 | 8.0507408322232 |
| 106 | 347 | 351.735857721497 | -4.73585772149704 |
| 107 | 305 | 317.998757011001 | -12.9987570110005 |
| 108 | 336 | 352.790665052808 | -16.7906650528085 |
| 109 | 340 | 359.237140476179 | -19.2371404761794 |
| 110 | 318 | 343.223593245562 | -25.2235932455621 |
| 111 | 362 | 389.947459573451 | -27.9474595734515 |
| 112 | 348 | 374.406789879838 | -26.4067898798385 |
| 113 | 363 | 373.650027638871 | -10.6500276388712 |
| 114 | 435 | 433.308118043723 | 1.69188195627703 |
| 115 | 491 | 471.499333939273 | 19.5006660607272 |
| 116 | 505 | 470.679272945313 | 34.320727054687 |
| 117 | 404 | 413.504477870091 | -9.50447787009125 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.483041056434 | 4.51695894356556 |
| 119 | 310 | 316.06644840636 | -6.0664484063596 |
| 120 | 337 | 349.025200176065 | -12.0252001760649 |
| 121 | 360 | 354.153856208752 | 5.84614379124764 |
| 122 | 342 | 339.413066656397 | 2.58693334360328 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.777674042409 | 15.2223259575908 |
| 124 | 396 | 387.262984667486 | 8.73701533251392 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.534097462561 | 12.4659025374395 |
| 126 | 472 | 482.867470544425 | -10.8674705444247 |
| 127 | 548 | 531.891710015522 | 16.1082899844785 |
| 128 | 559 | 541.901021739742 | 17.0989782602576 |
| 129 | 463 | 447.875390224938 | 15.1246097750625 |
| 130 | 407 | 406.094345030001 | 0.905654969998807 |
| 131 | 362 | 359.380907870101 | 2.61909212989883 |
| 132 | 405 | 390.644236750492 | 14.3557632495077 |
| 133 | 417 | 416.612314574268 | 0.387685425732229 |
| 134 | 391 | 398.878286514511 | -7.87828651451065 |
| 135 | 419 | 457.871953443464 | -38.8719534434641 |
| 136 | 461 | 436.325333374695 | 24.6746666253051 |
| 137 | 472 | 463.747561389848 | 8.25243861015184 |
| 138 | 535 | 520.847393660955 | 14.1526063390452 |
| 139 | 622 | 596.935578762724 | 25.0644212372756 |
| 140 | 606 | 610.560492406652 | -4.56049240665152 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.143721671589 | -2.14372167158911 |
| 142 | 461 | 453.704068818088 | 7.29593118191156 |
| 143 | 390 | 410.234924183382 | -20.2349241833815 |
| 144 | 432 | 444.833325554045 | -12.8333255540447 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 453.497721751321 | 428.415266965019 | 478.580176537622 |
| 146 | 429.390569251949 | 403.496001603239 | 455.285136900659 |
| 147 | 467.036052088741 | 440.301472551842 | 493.770631625639 |
| 148 | 503.25740665386 | 475.65579207998 | 530.85902122774 |
| 149 | 512.339520167 | 483.844695250901 | 540.8343450831 |
| 150 | 571.887965749639 | 542.4745714567 | 601.301360042577 |
| 151 | 652.609534991378 | 622.252994696776 | 682.96607528598 |
| 152 | 637.462256917306 | 606.138741269286 | 668.785772565325 |
| 153 | 539.754768946301 | 507.441160256023 | 572.068377636578 |
| 154 | 490.724986086209 | 457.398842867372 | 524.051129305046 |
| 155 | 424.459265263961 | 390.098787394923 | 458.819743132999 |
| 156 | 469.531518789793 | 434.115513646614 | 504.947523932972 |
