Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.834190584506703
beta0.0314371802559873
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
13299.5237.62747618614461.8725238138558
14347.4334.68420332620312.7157966737971
15338.3337.1242383194981.17576168050238
16327.7326.9401176589920.759882341007824
17351.6351.0532409788560.546759021144339
18396.6398.63300051836-2.03300051836038
19438.8389.48984628819149.3101537118086
20395.6405.364615816469-9.76461581646913
21363.5370.107395833036-6.60739583303643
22378.8311.42696738415367.3730326158467
23357425.406491420864-68.406491420864
24369393.290788189494-24.2907881894936
25464.8513.533753724352-48.7337537243516
26479.1521.378815401935-42.2788154019347
27431.3463.753172723498-32.4531727234976
28366.5415.288175047802-48.7881750478023
29326.3395.158503716758-68.8585037167583
30355.1376.753057717122-21.6530577171216
31331.6353.723145063109-22.1231450631088
32261.3304.340882188411-43.0408821884114
33249246.9603481818232.03965181817742
34205.5216.679853301719-11.1798533017195
35235.6222.94211720260712.6578827973931
36240.9251.583084970852-10.6830849708523
37264.9328.257617341588-63.357617341588
38253.8300.622155814378-46.8221558143783
39232.3246.570735623035-14.2707356230349
40193.8217.974021763922-24.1740217639222
41177203.015550718946-26.0155507189463
42213.2203.9928181946469.207181805354
43207.2205.5960254781991.60397452180106
44180.6182.439793276884-1.83979327688374
45188.6169.1727492568119.4272507431899
46175.4158.3106701098217.0893298901803
47199187.48481543042711.5151845695733
48179.6207.498578233086-27.8985782330857
49225.8239.439214993198-13.6392149931978
50234249.392887806847-15.3928878068471
51200.2226.171511133813-25.9715111338131
52183.6186.658271387767-3.05827138776721
53178.2187.212548206107-9.0125482061074
54203.2207.693982600238-4.49398260023764
55208.5195.84678877039912.6532112296015
56191.8180.67041094742311.1295890525773
57172.8180.531206710978-7.7312067109776
58148147.7256237049570.274376295043311
59159.4158.5941472172590.805852782741454
60154.5160.696894106295-6.19689410629519
61213.2204.0714491724299.12855082757136
62196.4230.365107477772-33.9651074777719
63182.8189.974333411299-7.17433341129856
64176.4170.2599431967646.14005680323552
65153.6176.720028869306-23.1200288693063
66173.2181.741312509917-8.54131250991742
67171168.8718272040892.12817279591087
68151.2148.1656355554453.03436444455463
69161.9139.63601061047322.2639893895266
70157.2134.80611764866722.3938823513327
71201.7164.58153835031237.1184616496884
72236.4196.54416510374439.8558348962562
73356.1307.95487481576548.1451251842348
74398.3368.74231903962129.5576809603788
75403.7382.88247820146320.8175217985374
76384.6380.2368131794354.36318682056458
77365.8380.127495155898-14.3274951558981
78368.1438.947318995067-70.8473189950665
79367.9376.476661613974-8.57666161397373
80347325.4266249665521.5733750334502
81343.3329.05557059527814.2444294047222
82292.9293.809700047222-0.90970004722243
83311.5318.635578971638-7.13557897163827
84300.9314.220628238656-13.3206282386564
85366.9403.388371532026-36.4883715320257
86356.9389.091648366245-32.1916483662446
87329.7348.652797695349-18.9527976953486
88316.2311.307566239354.89243376065048
89269307.082879226877-38.0828792268766
90289.3316.793051057077-27.4930510570774
91266.2296.430059110966-30.2300591109657
92253.6239.49312356866514.1068764313352
93233.8237.186895038593-3.38689503859342
94228.4198.02814214559430.3718578544065
95253.6239.98753593533513.6124640646649
96260.1249.94801769486410.1519823051357
97306.6339.008756096405-32.4087560964045
98309.2324.09094773297-14.8909477329699
99309.5300.0269105011659.47308949883507
100271290.523410386682-19.5234103866817
101279.9258.86288483321921.0371151667809
102317.9320.267363671748-2.36736367174774
103298.4320.511644503372-22.1116445033725
104246.7274.904395761556-28.2043957615564
105227.3234.090662576489-6.79066257648918
106209.1197.37225093277411.7277490672263
107259.9218.69359495707441.2064050429262
108266250.74243224985115.2575677501487
109320.6337.23270626428-16.6327062642797
110308.5339.19902279909-30.6990227990902
111282.2305.595219572652-23.3952195726524
112262.7264.450583587265-1.75058358726506
113263.5253.8723120249139.62768797508744
114313.1298.44496198352514.6550380164746
115284.3308.950332595021-24.6503325950214
116252.6260.242475622728-7.64247562272814
117250.3239.71286832347610.5871316765237
118246.5218.26938366055628.2306163394442
119312.7260.61976485281452.0802351471858
120333.2297.08221912052136.1177808794794
121446.4412.91330169527733.4866983047226
122511.6461.75040030142249.8495996985781
123515.5496.78733338711818.7126666128822
124506.4485.61993897204120.7800610279587
125483.2495.424325050969-12.2243250509688
126522.3560.292748685512-37.9927486855123
127509.8518.892824477407-9.09282447740696
128460.7470.71973473067-10.0197347306701
129405.8446.758347791142-40.9583477911422
130375369.7271233422055.27287665779534
131378.5408.946064638908-30.4460646389079
132406.8371.00395402306835.7960459769325
133467.8502.744824266522-34.9448242665222
134469.8496.311550713871-26.5115507138715
135429.8460.5140912902-30.7140912902003
136355.8409.273950575559-53.4739505755586
137332.7351.208595366557-18.5085953665567
138378379.995421767788-1.99542176778783
139360.5370.589625795369-10.0896257953692
140334.7329.4087470074575.29125299254321
141319.5315.0468954439264.45310455607449
142323.1288.67269792979734.4273020702028
143363.6339.59553971763824.0044602823621
144352.1356.752272691174-4.65227269117435
145411.9428.735450171634-16.8354501716336
146388.6434.059236163915-45.4592361639151
147416.4381.57452319244334.825476807557
148360.7380.71634823023-20.0163482302297
149338355.979403173373-17.9794031733734
150417.2389.07017652372328.1298234762772
151388.4403.295842983156-14.8958429831559
152371.1358.65892425832912.4410757416709
153331.5348.865331958765-17.3653319587654
154353.7307.66017994245246.0398200575484
155396.7368.10785359933428.5921464006662
156447384.12974459006962.8702554099307
157533.5530.3152915650293.1847084349705
158565.4553.88349592444411.516504075556
159542.3565.735654806018-23.4356548060185
160488.7497.427065666376-8.72706566637623
161467.1482.45287899866-15.3528789986605
162531.3550.414094783947-19.1140947839472
163496.1515.561418835636-19.4614188356364
164444465.666220719452-21.666220719452
165403.4418.149993873059-14.7499938730587
166386.3386.0580294520130.241970547986909
167394.1406.63620050867-12.5362005086702
168404.1391.64650741379312.4534925862071
169462.1474.973714290028-12.8737142900283
170448.1480.776403728983-32.6764037289826
171432.3447.026236723836-14.7262367238359
172386.3394.483547810648-8.18354781064835
173395.2377.6013315909117.5986684090902
174421.9456.711511348764-34.8115113487644
175382.9409.284132305306-26.3841323053057
176384.2357.58883714826726.6111628517328
177345.5353.631653040857-8.13165304085658
178323.4330.274534281046-6.87453428104556
179372.6337.89842695704634.7015730429537
180376365.57883461928510.4211653807153
181462.7436.86472579632525.835274203675
182487471.10841380621315.8915861937868
183444.2481.542046865397-37.3420468653968
184399.3410.006145369804-10.7061453698042
185394.9395.348280574095-0.448280574095463
186455.4450.1906610102795.20933898972106
187414436.889108589504-22.8891085895035
188375.5395.73011673528-20.2301167352803
189347347.072853683285-0.0728536832849045
190339.4330.4908666000628.90913339993801
191385.8359.00849755188626.7915024481141
192378.8376.0379777340832.7620222659167
193451.8443.6232318861878.17676811381295
194446.1460.613734749249-14.5137347492486
195422.5436.210923450453-13.7109234504532
196383.1389.725762184659-6.62576218465904
197352.8379.807791542923-27.0077915429233
198445.3406.71620417745738.5837958225428
199367.5416.756905232502-49.2569052325022
200355.1354.7719564388580.328043561141669
201326.2327.571762781385-1.37176278138497
202319.8311.6617793139258.1382206860755
203331.8340.127512628688-8.32751262868788
204340.9323.68277312001717.2172268799831
205394.1395.811999186926-1.71199918692554
206417.2398.40661380749718.7933861925031
207369.9402.044103018572-32.144103018572
208349.2344.0270064828875.17299351711256
209321.4340.223476236578-18.8234762365778
210405.7378.81187608292626.8881239170743
211342.9366.447768672184-23.5477686721841
212316.5334.516743842785-18.0167438427854
213284.2293.719817858093-9.51981785809272
214270.9273.199229921904-2.29922992190438
215288.8285.9789363458982.8210636541022
216278.8282.599199647155-3.79919964715526
217324.4322.3677047641012.0322952358988
218310.9328.286624385283-17.386624385283
219299295.5503651295043.44963487049614
220273276.590977095882-3.59097709588195
221279.3262.18737329216917.1126267078312
222359.2328.42282671855830.7771732814419
223305315.48527370873-10.4852737087303
224282.1295.993398946805-13.8933989468049
225250.3262.117445690386-11.8174456903863
226246.5241.7026846335054.79731536649456
227257.9259.552901518124-1.65290151812445
228266.5251.68155912951914.8184408704811
229315.9305.86691528896710.0330847110334
230318.4315.5943371442552.80566285574525
231295.4303.953123143273-8.55312314327284
232266.4274.663141610848-8.26314161084758
233245.8260.32689534758-14.52689534758
234362.8295.47437034277567.325629657225
235324.9307.6145046613517.2854953386498
236294.2311.327565494172-17.1275654941724
237289.5275.02653570229114.4734642977086
238295.2280.17312536253815.0268746374616
239290.3310.393457438275-20.0934574382753
240272291.134291337321-19.1342913373205
241307.4318.394288971588-10.9942889715882
242328.7309.61902062623919.0809793737611
243292.9309.996014049048-17.0960140490484
244249.1273.990462735571-24.8904627355708
245230.4244.940768552522-14.5407685525221
246361.5288.56622411989172.9337758801087
247321.7298.91759317115922.7824068288405
248277.2301.906370001677-24.7063700016765
249260.7265.10978747993-4.40978747993029
250251254.615925394873-3.61592539487268
251257.6260.50417724146-2.90417724146005
252241.8255.189722282398-13.3897222823977
253287.5283.3145311896014.1854688103989
254292.3291.4578137780610.842186221938732
255274.7272.2171214176022.48287858239837
256254.2252.2612767187431.93872328125738
257230247.72021961625-17.7202196162501
258339302.58468213613636.4153178638637
259318.2278.2564160297939.9435839702103
260287288.304590422073-1.30459042207343
261295.8274.6883732561621.11162674384
262284286.288122087309-2.28812208730869
263271296.208109798483-25.2081097984832
264262.7271.071932395488-8.37193239548822
265340.6311.51982258988529.0801774101154
266379.4342.71641532181736.6835846781826
267373.3351.26003399645722.0399660035428
268355.2343.27239004768111.9276099523191
269338.4343.450492532881-5.05049253288109
270466.9460.0977503489796.80224965102121
271451394.06858158828956.9314184117112
272422403.08274740000418.9172525999961
273429.2409.43878130883419.7612186911656
274425.9415.0085880822510.8914119177504
275460.7439.38538733618421.314612663816
276463.6460.2286812215733.371318778427
277541.4564.015329469132-22.6153294691319
278544.2562.696325619827-18.4963256198271
279517.5514.8111447781732.68885522182654
280469.4480.380068374935-10.9800683749349
281439.4456.080747737177-16.680747737177
282549604.457449151292-55.4574491512918
283533481.53649826605151.4635017339486
284506.1472.240855625733.8591443743005
285484489.525707072677-5.52570707267694
286457470.559693216982-13.5596932169819
287481.5476.648188219674.85181178033031
288469.5479.68244184956-10.1824418495596
289544.7567.718561708974-23.0185617089737
290541.2565.287878180972-24.0878781809723
291521.5514.6040538418026.8959461581976
292469.7479.791550330744-10.0915503307438
293434.4453.845780084297-19.4457800842965
294542.6590.308879245721-47.7088792457209
295517.3489.26701353597928.0329864640206
296485.7457.6019458738728.0980541261303
297465.8462.705841759553.09415824045033
298447448.684024928763-1.68402492876328
299426.6466.008335457579-39.4083354575793
300411.6427.865003909955-16.2650039099552
301467.5494.845873504668-27.3458735046677
302484.5483.4598717807711.0401282192293
303451.2459.313553104752-8.11355310475227
304417.4412.5862453418014.81375465819866
305379.9397.681557749085-17.7815577490849
306484.7510.249071521653-25.5490715216534
307455442.93013030531612.0698696946836
308420.8402.60756168426718.1924383157332
309416.5396.42522066609720.0747793339029
310376.3396.178937745951-19.8789377459509
311405.6387.77501938942817.8249806105723
312405.8400.4140608590445.38593914095571
313500.8481.77155726769919.0284427323006
314514515.647174743339-1.64717474333941
315475.5486.806660292557-11.3066602925572
316430.1437.949490856318-7.84949085631831
317414.4408.1047603309436.29523966905691
318538551.565953968965-13.5659539689649
319526497.32432427319728.675675726803
320488.5466.21370771281122.2862922871892
321520.2462.0078347395258.1921652604802
322504.4483.75011076939320.649889230607
323568.5523.66164621803844.8383537819625
324610.6559.20039101480151.3996089851988
325818725.48716090478292.512839095218
326830.9833.897165879348-2.99716587934813
327835.9791.70469101085244.1953089891477
328782768.99028122806813.0097187719323
329762.3750.19003056198412.1099694380164
330856.91018.79199894643-161.891998946427
331820.9831.46457351968-10.5645735196805
332769.6739.76052706958829.8394729304122
333752.2741.56884236848410.6311576315162
334724.4705.39250955402519.0074904459747
335723.1761.351679831263-38.2516798312628
336719.5728.329768106897-8.82976810689684
337817.4872.18048063853-54.7804806385304
338803.3838.57279655882-35.2727965588196
339752.5774.049546250178-21.549546250178
340689693.188259910455-4.18825991045469
341630.4659.132267092613-28.7322670926126
342765.5816.94717927093-51.4471792709293
343757.7744.98167238264112.7183276173589
344732.2681.69546783231850.504532167682
345702.6696.063229408936.53677059107031
346683.3657.87891928882625.421080711174
347709.5704.7400894480774.75991055192299
348702.2710.372544631868-8.17254463186839
349784.8841.119473579422-56.3194735794224
350810.9806.3898101228324.51018987716816
351755.6775.406805500724-19.8068055007235
352656.8696.986623072413-40.1866230724129
353615.1627.941855173684-12.8418551736844
354745.3788.932087670081-43.6320876700813
355694.1732.481713641822-38.3817136418218
356675.7634.71114219732140.9888578026788
357643.7634.131017095699.56898290430956
358622.1602.49283894616919.6071610538313
359634.6636.370804952093-1.77080495209293
360588631.75737819329-43.7573781932903
361689.7700.600403665266-10.9004036652664
362673.9707.89645012792-33.9964501279198
363647.9643.0945752982164.80542470178409
364568.8587.828381851089-19.0283818510893
365545.7542.3561361751823.34386382481784
366632.6689.663175681825-57.0631756818253
367643.8622.08585426318621.7141457368136
368593.1589.7359675598263.36403244017436
369579.7555.11500054502224.5849994549778
370546539.7776804195646.22231958043596
371562.9555.0752613478897.82473865211114
372572.5550.4032204897422.09677951026


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373675.605005237642622.799731966575728.410278508709
374687.557023555933617.377763291812757.736283820054
375657.66996319919575.506598034036739.833328364344
376593.946199398155505.077273213045682.815125583264
377567.936068496989469.834611646466666.037525347511
378708.351039658937576.993485130241839.708594187633
379703.360616380378562.251209097957844.470023662799
380646.90116412121506.040242055199787.762086187221
381611.554367647704467.594832515539755.51390277987
382571.50484236381426.191861362824716.817823364796
383583.173504746873424.881836930818741.465172562928
384574.497670208199283.317387195404865.677953220994