| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 276986 | 276986 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 260633 | 268907.014254056 | -230.474649895412 | -7548.46986914791 | -1.11730135463497 |
| 3 | 291551 | 277947.110260154 | 378.739939256678 | 13053.7671807819 | 1.03201085784645 |
| 4 | 275383 | 278431.669261168 | 384.754226560573 | -3056.81008533813 | 0.0144981370890313 |
| 5 | 275302 | 277248.748783589 | 323.833020961705 | -1805.37142940512 | -0.239197341051795 |
| 6 | 231693 | 258542.242758985 | -164.17878544614 | -25041.753309816 | -2.99350937984391 |
| 7 | 238829 | 245805.247957421 | -403.381155715341 | -5765.4796793018 | -1.99059401166161 |
| 8 | 274215 | 254051.315508203 | -259.441453140489 | 19328.4178443807 | 1.37029092119339 |
| 9 | 277808 | 265824.300924751 | -64.905267113097 | 10822.2398513175 | 1.90483413590193 |
| 10 | 299060 | 282342.371504313 | 204.530617876294 | 15118.5329448938 | 2.62312740418102 |
| 11 | 286629 | 288325.030507074 | 298.831090524497 | -2252.83803107105 | 0.913566265094833 |
| 12 | 232313 | 267125.727372423 | -50.5608223021363 | -32741.5283507923 | -3.39848867209869 |
| 13 | 294053 | 271270.187629076 | -155.056581017289 | 22364.6469191755 | 0.712522066623347 |
| 14 | 267510 | 275886.481304581 | -175.743156476444 | -8836.82599124493 | 0.77671786627454 |
| 15 | 309739 | 285177.83568522 | 7.14480346688107 | 23756.4656571844 | 1.39398590500138 |
| 16 | 280733 | 284448.340201388 | -13.753603599202 | -3654.76497014913 | -0.107259699374154 |
| 17 | 287298 | 280755.463990983 | -114.681115454793 | 6856.66343452602 | -0.554992856939801 |
| 18 | 235672 | 270094.201133976 | -352.305800066708 | -33486.5430520596 | -1.63764333167407 |
| 19 | 256449 | 267769.950600386 | -387.246288361308 | -11142.3328957036 | -0.310453303898074 |
| 20 | 288997 | 271984.813482451 | -320.645767377847 | 16591.5931415435 | 0.728295324824832 |
| 21 | 290789 | 279652.287180256 | -220.351378742169 | 10404.1580235097 | 1.26609354332753 |
| 22 | 321898 | 291381.332454661 | -89.4287417890795 | 29419.3754114489 | 1.89384037190376 |
| 23 | 291834 | 290908.961601004 | -92.6629298302223 | 960.242927266257 | -0.0606526359832689 |
| 24 | 241380 | 286160.315434857 | -112.11989850888 | -44350.8871861355 | -0.738655696600289 |
| 25 | 295469 | 282238.494044235 | -108.457099452826 | 13585.1140909846 | -0.610110522536673 |
| 26 | 258200 | 277385.124600343 | -122.283972819482 | -18749.232774424 | -0.750552556687323 |
| 27 | 306102 | 277059.35483264 | -124.544003633981 | 29060.6400143858 | -0.0312237640220054 |
| 28 | 281480 | 277855.569560761 | -108.710486486806 | 3544.97095011766 | 0.139285460078859 |
| 29 | 283101 | 274609.21563924 | -169.168013124861 | 8763.69345658497 | -0.478626680494422 |
| 30 | 237414 | 272597.200228842 | -202.848016288604 | -35020.6768944432 | -0.285590559717269 |
| 31 | 274834 | 279407.694719155 | -91.478335378489 | -5202.11169019933 | 1.1002260918857 |
| 32 | 299340 | 285056.45203971 | -15.2961113296345 | 13764.0795250654 | 0.906478136986063 |
| 33 | 300383 | 290693.439163974 | 46.129007201837 | 9175.43260985011 | 0.894926956980808 |
| 34 | 340862 | 299237.300950613 | 118.879944660063 | 40849.9402928732 | 1.34604007837913 |
| 35 | 318794 | 306752.166969866 | 164.721911675348 | 11366.6473221907 | 1.17137511544314 |
| 36 | 265740 | 308516.907163843 | 171.242406491012 | -42923.1693415243 | 0.253535992330905 |
| 37 | 322656 | 308244.378523623 | 169.790475560457 | 14452.1748357602 | -0.0702792961758688 |
| 38 | 281563 | 305240.373081305 | 153.27745260318 | -23389.8445784773 | -0.49879377563404 |
| 39 | 323461 | 300325.398288324 | 107.925015994619 | 23587.2438237937 | -0.786285805557625 |
| 40 | 312579 | 301998.971087356 | 127.430805937478 | 10442.3176304507 | 0.240933667903895 |
| 41 | 310784 | 302790.018411856 | 136.986583549688 | 7935.69703248456 | 0.102307940698157 |
| 42 | 262785 | 303390.649368304 | 143.740832783479 | -40646.6832334414 | 0.0720541623724668 |
| 43 | 273754 | 296366.80374242 | 47.4194806036935 | -21972.0631535311 | -1.12327837255165 |
| 44 | 320036 | 301150.789047174 | 102.496888541644 | 18458.3932055637 | 0.746540380965125 |
| 45 | 310336 | 304974.282186481 | 138.171539852234 | 5024.76176939497 | 0.588113793304873 |
| 46 | 342206 | 306254.381044093 | 146.826173312497 | 35847.9464349889 | 0.180648389044738 |
| 47 | 320052 | 307677.756632588 | 154.269658144938 | 12258.206436895 | 0.201969806712726 |
| 48 | 265582 | 307778.943473457 | 154.020555539208 | -42192.1173257657 | -0.00839536512018607 |
| 49 | 326988 | 308519.248772284 | 156.725752482607 | 18415.554124903 | 0.0925367366251485 |
| 50 | 300713 | 313756.495823078 | 186.328096172116 | -13501.7441448563 | 0.797799762031127 |
| 51 | 346414 | 318821.911320599 | 224.928517526285 | 27155.8959809655 | 0.76095151752461 |
| 52 | 317325 | 315303.064033622 | 187.40750280417 | 2354.2029230608 | -0.581220471432407 |
| 53 | 326208 | 315362.000597018 | 185.939189950132 | 10857.3805254286 | -0.0199506470602143 |
| 54 | 270657 | 312877.945332919 | 154.378306752719 | -41983.5738866083 | -0.416375696272292 |
| 55 | 278158 | 309055.250029183 | 109.53691942028 | -30541.5344904311 | -0.623517432875197 |
| 56 | 324584 | 308217.203846945 | 99.9837801620398 | 16452.0336245525 | -0.149192187872324 |
| 57 | 321801 | 311767.900937789 | 129.574373436696 | 9721.44268375477 | 0.544646867179904 |
| 58 | 343542 | 311364.382704917 | 125.809934513025 | 32225.8778368914 | -0.0842312166225604 |
| 59 | 354040 | 323216.989754217 | 194.061871284164 | 29760.2520723204 | 1.8532692075426 |
| 60 | 278179 | 325457.526261515 | 204.531429783257 | -47463.9622102716 | 0.323228694465642 |
| 61 | 330246 | 322264.980306323 | 187.045683532382 | 8288.25233791686 | -0.535547723602581 |
| 62 | 307344 | 321823.36213139 | 183.31917718038 | -14422.7347987796 | -0.0987710894223873 |
| 63 | 375874 | 331144.82077461 | 249.121132204079 | 43910.3927000362 | 1.42997257623001 |
| 64 | 335309 | 333383.855480305 | 266.093519993619 | 1747.61575924859 | 0.310545834789703 |
| 65 | 339271 | 330936.635673981 | 240.332091202032 | 8576.08863613414 | -0.423404588614555 |
| 66 | 280264 | 326302.999064032 | 192.308583168518 | -45604.02065283 | -0.762323070980701 |
| 67 | 293689 | 324910.392569785 | 177.131688720605 | -31079.4300872242 | -0.248716594132782 |
| 68 | 341161 | 325850.827095682 | 183.848002388678 | 15241.5372928709 | 0.12014069775262 |
| 69 | 345097 | 330881.268326371 | 221.391390180929 | 13778.5909057889 | 0.76435346459446 |
| 70 | 368712 | 336900.975763824 | 260.042051148643 | 31287.0193224469 | 0.915368660140026 |
| 71 | 369403 | 339455.902623767 | 273.332782890917 | 29739.5185592091 | 0.362371296035574 |
| 72 | 288384 | 338211.852746956 | 265.270904891825 | -49690.6272345188 | -0.239475092848745 |
| 73 | 340981 | 336788.335169024 | 256.26036492917 | 4345.16868982911 | -0.266146015648853 |
| 74 | 319072 | 337495.213064379 | 258.889386952099 | -18463.7952483866 | 0.0708542471055807 |
| 75 | 374214 | 334956.893675794 | 240.309000860684 | 39508.1888461257 | -0.438737344604713 |
| 76 | 344529 | 336364.554769528 | 249.066206167025 | 8059.94255172078 | 0.182790099864862 |
| 77 | 337271 | 332640.910271624 | 216.666727639785 | 4985.37608460645 | -0.621973858941739 |
| 78 | 281016 | 329656.374495173 | 189.673582730211 | -48353.8198283987 | -0.501846994099488 |
| 79 | 282224 | 323846.658541302 | 139.977184154449 | -41084.4211997077 | -0.942479958383365 |
| 80 | 320984 | 317650.405496196 | 90.70509136921 | 3903.53448542859 | -0.997434932957986 |
| 81 | 325426 | 315710.04267654 | 76.3755900693281 | 9899.05963992883 | -0.320208572866598 |
| 82 | 366276 | 323079.557802417 | 122.320626787098 | 42537.9558903695 | 1.15077360144049 |
| 83 | 380296 | 334596.268938535 | 187.089379078911 | 44670.2043083317 | 1.79830355286618 |
| 84 | 300727 | 342543.382822639 | 228.553642494716 | -42517.4387876602 | 1.22423687120686 |
| 85 | 359326 | 348700.867711326 | 260.226636644981 | 10090.0543917798 | 0.934406092605548 |
| 86 | 327610 | 348226.663379496 | 256.072120368891 | -20550.5019443914 | -0.115572072447557 |
| 87 | 383563 | 346201.359515515 | 241.978819795846 | 37566.7230633182 | -0.358435499525503 |
| 88 | 352405 | 343587.335594199 | 222.725972393379 | 9073.96237997548 | -0.448237229622406 |
| 89 | 329351 | 334178.107674025 | 153.544031180876 | -3963.33300009715 | -1.51147708367543 |
| 90 | 294486 | 333700.758268626 | 148.886071517529 | -39158.1521192227 | -0.0990792502380585 |
| 91 | 333454 | 348160.740524496 | 253.346167892714 | -15992.5903342227 | 2.25049419238692 |
| 92 | 334339 | 345291.021484236 | 231.595058339858 | -10670.9237065258 | -0.491804092696058 |
| 93 | 358000 | 349028.072200256 | 254.285049160359 | 8655.90788019872 | 0.552632533651586 |
| 94 | 396057 | 355240.307202202 | 289.721309784415 | 40278.9599392693 | 0.939894895707077 |
| 95 | 386976 | 353974.719839991 | 281.146377481457 | 33141.7343359149 | -0.245406912265958 |
| 96 | 307155 | 353263.006895381 | 275.919378805973 | -46018.3512707206 | -0.156618490747221 |
| 97 | 363909 | 352797.167306318 | 272.028065381921 | 11178.7669131503 | -0.116926449059973 |
| 98 | 344700 | 356411.392760778 | 290.21394728823 | -12012.6202210148 | 0.526313246319703 |
| 99 | 397561 | 357136.659450323 | 292.727700963264 | 40385.1840897292 | 0.0684395731013069 |
| 100 | 376791 | 359710.571049641 | 306.756469379411 | 16875.3428415841 | 0.358610502933729 |
| 101 | 337085 | 354502.161916881 | 271.199766146501 | -16921.5662306631 | -0.866903135602639 |
| 102 | 299252 | 350578.27243704 | 243.562306425245 | -50949.1899860667 | -0.659720941640785 |
| 103 | 323136 | 345421.848618522 | 208.25678481689 | -21800.0261264984 | -0.849936168281192 |
| 104 | 329091 | 343711.636440121 | 196.142447562265 | -14447.8333890851 | -0.302247239829088 |
| 105 | 346991 | 342626.931550613 | 188.485736935439 | 4479.56919393245 | -0.201953972837391 |
| 106 | 461999 | 372260.658731244 | 353.741893808974 | 87080.8485451335 | 4.64507546334466 |
| 107 | 436533 | 390106.048109204 | 446.521269742553 | 44847.5928177747 | 2.75984417839012 |
| 108 | 360372 | 400086.379282326 | 495.337588306374 | -40575.1947875498 | 1.50399945974552 |
| 109 | 415467 | 404532.097211085 | 515.454983153758 | 10578.3842589302 | 0.622894425642157 |
| 110 | 382110 | 401583.57971385 | 497.404711305534 | -19161.2081238291 | -0.54583169982289 |
| 111 | 432197 | 397101.361129285 | 470.375777360997 | 35544.2795753459 | -0.784128644579812 |
| 112 | 424254 | 398401.701080882 | 475.08415536616 | 25777.5781180501 | 0.130632277776607 |
| 113 | 386728 | 399409.269849664 | 478.211124929543 | -12729.1931962371 | 0.0838030062305809 |
| 114 | 354508 | 401108.455484556 | 485.499534894819 | -46710.361373457 | 0.192215636270728 |
| 115 | 375765 | 401198.269740045 | 483.150129319121 | -25397.6313443242 | -0.0623273229664176 |
| 116 | 367986 | 397882.125295853 | 461.167434495178 | -29553.6583191389 | -0.598846568730475 |
| 117 | 402378 | 406433.738755225 | 506.099266415309 | -4785.59033270299 | 1.27595201202864 |
| 118 | 426516 | 387938.307348888 | 405.434160668125 | 40292.918620358 | -2.99790710362023 |
| 119 | 433313 | 386935.897584144 | 398.285580362291 | 46504.2289561345 | -0.222151033068869 |
| 120 | 338461 | 384371.159693484 | 383.646966570613 | -45642.5979301185 | -0.467504812699431 |
| 121 | 416834 | 391142.702404923 | 415.005810492808 | 25114.6397061493 | 1.00756446806031 |
| 122 | 381099 | 395168.951752682 | 432.983640390627 | -14395.780514544 | 0.569349059734372 |
| 123 | 445673 | 402113.932097093 | 466.304885016148 | 42971.8674232672 | 1.02622391429411 |
| 124 | 412408 | 397944.295087334 | 441.838070787362 | 14881.5334411451 | -0.730353886339488 |
| 125 | 393997 | 400701.927839805 | 454.367407041342 | -6913.59937349182 | 0.364810531411725 |
| 126 | 348241 | 398837.004210643 | 441.668047364216 | -50386.9957240257 | -0.365431333867063 |
| 127 | 380134 | 400358.241669266 | 447.555618386604 | -20321.5673785098 | 0.170163250139842 |
| 128 | 373688 | 401763.696918829 | 452.679426514322 | -28162.1011720022 | 0.151053731254862 |
| 129 | 393588 | 396409.446259968 | 422.558616590077 | -2297.35547019347 | -0.916086792086154 |
| 130 | 434192 | 394245.70663913 | 409.610861763132 | 40179.8198471985 | -0.408125723975737 |
| 131 | 430731 | 390414.706016297 | 389.053425251479 | 40699.2954542258 | -0.669263362729104 |
| 132 | 344468 | 391782.196460117 | 393.695479286807 | -47402.569498784 | 0.154411124088382 |
| 133 | 411891 | 391699.107595504 | 391.448407398597 | 20234.9479219841 | -0.0752279911100507 |
| 134 | 370497 | 390328.936913746 | 383.078979610987 | -19672.9101770306 | -0.277870211688354 |
| 135 | 437305 | 390839.159018583 | 383.694102829669 | 46454.3679169164 | 0.0200490904335714 |
| 136 | 411270 | 393555.572941448 | 395.223168538835 | 17503.9966747467 | 0.367769974217184 |
| 137 | 385495 | 393354.468932475 | 392.223896440512 | -7805.68345031699 | -0.0940110388629281 |
| 138 | 341273 | 392870.713844008 | 387.780851176749 | -51518.6999402791 | -0.138115649799252 |
| 139 | 384217 | 396838.03550116 | 405.877389884054 | -12943.9970781321 | 0.564531624842672 |
| 140 | 373223 | 397775.750708748 | 408.526905888086 | -24600.7536234475 | 0.083902894643684 |
| 141 | 415771 | 404837.661358564 | 440.91172595913 | 10332.5733807367 | 1.04994980188876 |
| 142 | 448634 | 406891.8655267 | 448.556148647056 | 41596.4142641073 | 0.2546434850748 |
| 143 | 454341 | 410122.733393197 | 461.418764922039 | 43966.9041691913 | 0.439206616339534 |
| 144 | 350297 | 405937.048832931 | 440.300849091426 | -55220.1975478443 | -0.733559642040821 |
| 145 | 419104 | 402250.204319456 | 421.668059153237 | 17226.6292212627 | -0.65139873426422 |
| 146 | 398027 | 407863.602220454 | 445.202755929141 | -10305.5035095933 | 0.819267708706961 |
| 147 | 456059 | 410380.852567966 | 454.705724360247 | 45491.0548324519 | 0.326910627946 |
| 148 | 430052 | 411830.684860799 | 459.335760723849 | 18131.4808037167 | 0.156981848524237 |
| 149 | 399757 | 410958.10704371 | 453.063917568117 | -11080.8814901127 | -0.210104063974899 |
| 150 | 362731 | 413395.300212204 | 462.459609919067 | -50843.4065483367 | 0.313015482298496 |
| 151 | 384896 | 409051.312065801 | 439.76456043883 | -23721.3581662218 | -0.758398044008905 |
| 152 | 385349 | 410427.985173706 | 444.138575229477 | -25163.5971946925 | 0.147865368937012 |
| 153 | 432289 | 415757.243652698 | 466.544222905978 | 16090.4558368098 | 0.771146852744579 |
| 154 | 468891 | 421489.189292416 | 490.202901942193 | 46926.0410232457 | 0.831310542629109 |
| 155 | 442702 | 412873.61349753 | 450.062743572802 | 30651.2923718572 | -1.43775374524884 |
| 156 | 370178 | 415747.011046088 | 460.598574667533 | -45788.0221437377 | 0.38262985259254 |
| 157 | 439400 | 420461.526451078 | 478.97797936149 | 18554.0457574188 | 0.671614509297421 |
| 158 | 393900 | 415940.845455043 | 457.345190544092 | -21589.0877942217 | -0.789255624577152 |
| 159 | 468700 | 418074.738486577 | 464.651202636484 | 50473.7979387896 | 0.264629446503558 |
| 160 | 438800 | 419456.960223508 | 468.687446394597 | 19260.1556919308 | 0.144818404783534 |
| 161 | 430100 | 428287.295211184 | 505.761669927595 | 1057.44606773636 | 1.31967980526892 |
| 162 | 366300 | 425244.980631264 | 489.975699958196 | -58624.492525593 | -0.560010432959534 |
| 163 | 391000 | 421585.086259426 | 471.562184829672 | -30210.1920446495 | -0.655076282784177 |
| 164 | 380900 | 416481.613269628 | 447.045188741249 | -35077.8762225179 | -0.880184261941558 |
| 165 | 431400 | 415629.772884149 | 441.410990811906 | 15887.6132894976 | -0.205099349868534 |
| 166 | 465400 | 415058.591170686 | 437.087953550197 | 50432.937959376 | -0.159911911592482 |
| 167 | 471500 | 425819.662122857 | 480.508079564126 | 44747.0310611941 | 1.63050595171513 |
| 168 | 387500 | 431610.572605715 | 502.591703061265 | -44590.6639123695 | 0.838697468370679 |
| 169 | 446400 | 430633.703937286 | 496.475241603179 | 15900.0437879432 | -0.233647538265989 |
| 170 | 421500 | 436084.429616268 | 516.951800292882 | -15032.2705976441 | 0.782351538578737 |
| 171 | 504800 | 445204.363619987 | 552.650078581781 | 58818.0501492075 | 1.35843136752535 |
| 172 | 492071 | 459050.467764549 | 608.131828342248 | 31819.1016299212 | 2.0989515918658 |
| 173 | 421253 | 445690.540342537 | 549.546757877375 | -23175.1897633269 | -2.20544829948158 |
| 174 | 396682 | 445217.287089094 | 545.249202751723 | -48442.849892725 | -0.161499429723161 |
| 175 | 428000 | 449084.948682788 | 559.172225878729 | -21385.2446906685 | 0.524653644961199 |
| 176 | 421900 | 453230.523250969 | 574.093298004616 | -31654.7241735007 | 0.566405868893626 |
| 177 | 465600 | 454020.873842826 | 574.983367561788 | 11559.5741389353 | 0.034157737075908 |
| 178 | 525793 | 465505.963104381 | 619.329787981854 | 59300.5110663384 | 1.72340463591671 |
| 179 | 499855 | 465526.448392268 | 616.924527053287 | 34382.7061348693 | -0.0946011033998471 |
| 180 | 435287 | 471835.078135256 | 639.572942040536 | -37062.8102045689 | 0.899145605577881 |
| 181 | 479499 | 472599.1674845 | 640.065723728864 | 6888.57193712731 | 0.019669965309667 |
| 182 | 473027 | 481662.962883638 | 673.357006742304 | -9397.72066068409 | 1.33064089957622 |
| 183 | 554410 | 490672.134609637 | 706.359036498024 | 62984.1072382825 | 1.31668698477353 |
| 184 | 489574 | 477034.777109253 | 649.387943972684 | 13836.1687153597 | -2.26559111553876 |
| 185 | 462157 | 477955.848273772 | 650.469979526905 | -15823.4130942982 | 0.0429122879897749 |
| 186 | 420331 | 476306.000490616 | 641.303432968208 | -55767.0073470332 | -0.363347025725131 |
