Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999925005630408 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0 |
3 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0 |
4 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0 |
5 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0 |
6 | 3.28 | 3.27 | 0.00999999999999979 |
7 | 3.32 | 3.2799992500563 | 0.0400007499436961 |
8 | 3.34 | 3.31999700016897 | 0.0200029998310254 |
9 | 3.34 | 3.33999849988764 | 1.50011236232928e-06 |
10 | 3.35 | 3.3399999998875 | 0.0100000001125 |
11 | 3.35 | 3.3499992500563 | 7.49943704470013e-07 |
12 | 3.35 | 3.34999999994376 | 5.62416779814612e-11 |
13 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 3.99680288865056e-15 |
14 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 0 |
15 | 3.4 | 3.35 | 0.0499999999999998 |
16 | 3.42 | 3.39999625028152 | 0.0200037497184797 |
17 | 3.42 | 3.4199984998314 | 1.50016859956636e-06 |
18 | 3.42 | 3.4199999998875 | 1.12504228155785e-10 |
19 | 3.42 | 3.41999999999999 | 8.43769498715119e-15 |
20 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
21 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
22 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
23 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
24 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
25 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
26 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
27 | 3.43 | 3.42 | 0.0100000000000002 |
28 | 3.47 | 3.4299992500563 | 0.0400007499436961 |
29 | 3.51 | 3.46999700016897 | 0.040002999831025 |
30 | 3.52 | 3.50999700000025 | 0.0100029999997542 |
31 | 3.52 | 3.51999924983132 | 7.50168679175545e-07 |
32 | 3.52 | 3.51999999994374 | 5.62585533714355e-11 |
33 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
34 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
35 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
36 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
37 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
38 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
39 | 3.58 | 3.52 | 0.0600000000000001 |
40 | 3.6 | 3.57999550033782 | 0.0200044996621753 |
41 | 3.61 | 3.59999849977516 | 0.010001500224841 |
42 | 3.61 | 3.6099992499438 | 7.50056204257277e-07 |
43 | 3.61 | 3.60999999994375 | 5.62501156764483e-11 |
44 | 3.63 | 3.61 | 0.020000000000004 |
45 | 3.68 | 3.62999850011261 | 0.0500014998873919 |
46 | 3.69 | 3.67999625016904 | 0.0100037498309624 |
47 | 3.69 | 3.68999924977509 | 7.50224911971742e-07 |
48 | 3.69 | 3.68999999994374 | 5.62625501743241e-11 |
49 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
50 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
51 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
52 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
53 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
54 | 3.78 | 3.69 | 0.0899999999999999 |
55 | 3.79 | 3.77999325050674 | 0.0100067494932636 |
56 | 3.79 | 3.78999924955013 | 7.50449869801884e-07 |
57 | 3.8 | 3.78999999994372 | 0.0100000000562792 |
58 | 3.8 | 3.7999992500563 | 7.49943700029121e-07 |
59 | 3.8 | 3.79999999994376 | 5.62416779814612e-11 |
60 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.99680288865056e-15 |
61 | 3.81 | 3.8 | 0.0100000000000002 |
62 | 3.95 | 3.8099992500563 | 0.140000749943696 |
63 | 3.99 | 3.94998950073202 | 0.0400104992679844 |
64 | 4 | 3.98999699943783 | 0.0100030005621696 |
65 | 4.06 | 3.99999924983128 | 0.060000750168721 |
66 | 4.16 | 4.05999550028157 | 0.100004499718435 |
67 | 4.19 | 4.15999250022559 | 0.0300074997744133 |
68 | 4.2 | 4.18999774960647 | 0.0100022503935282 |
69 | 4.2 | 4.19999924988754 | 7.50112462810648e-07 |
70 | 4.2 | 4.19999999994375 | 5.62545565685468e-11 |
71 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
72 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0 |
73 | 4.23 | 4.2 | 0.0300000000000002 |
74 | 4.38 | 4.22999775016891 | 0.150002249831087 |
75 | 4.43 | 4.37998875067584 | 0.0500112493241636 |
76 | 4.44 | 4.42999624943788 | 0.0100037505621167 |
77 | 4.44 | 4.43999924977503 | 7.50224966594715e-07 |
78 | 4.44 | 4.43999999994374 | 5.62625501743241e-11 |
79 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
80 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 0 |
81 | 4.45 | 4.44 | 0.00999999999999979 |
82 | 4.45 | 4.4499992500563 | 7.49943695588229e-07 |
83 | 4.45 | 4.44999999994376 | 5.62412338922513e-11 |
84 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
85 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
86 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
87 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
88 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
89 | 4.46 | 4.45 | 0.00999999999999979 |
90 | 4.46 | 4.4599992500563 | 7.49943695588229e-07 |
91 | 4.46 | 4.45999999994376 | 5.62412338922513e-11 |
92 | 4.48 | 4.46 | 0.0200000000000049 |
93 | 4.58 | 4.47999850011261 | 0.100001499887392 |
94 | 4.67 | 4.57999250045056 | 0.0900074995494418 |
95 | 4.68 | 4.66999324994431 | 0.0100067500556866 |
96 | 4.68 | 4.67999924955009 | 7.50449911990358e-07 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.62148777857362 | 4.73851222131382 |
98 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.59725432570556 | 4.76274567418188 |
99 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.57865892653026 | 4.78134107335718 |
100 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.56298213927255 | 4.79701786061489 |
101 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.54917054503573 | 4.81082945485171 |
102 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.53668387095962 | 4.82331612892782 |
103 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.52520116473347 | 4.83479883515398 |
104 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.51451330580212 | 4.84548669408532 |
105 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.50447503735042 | 4.85552496253703 |
106 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.49498059812638 | 4.86501940176106 |
107 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.48595014654437 | 4.87404985334307 |
108 | 4.67999999994372 | 4.47732165339487 | 4.88267834649257 |