Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.0622 | 1.0622 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.0773 | 1.07651512246024 | 0.000791078124264281 | 0.000784877539763047 | 0.328240240099415 |
3 | 1.0807 | 1.0799049151658 | 0.000807686866607622 | 0.000795084834199952 | 0.09933580303149 |
4 | 1.0848 | 1.08399213172558 | 0.000832630110897031 | 0.000807868274422363 | 0.125279859759595 |
5 | 1.1582 | 1.15711283623269 | 0.00146879812246351 | 0.00108716376730887 | 2.75969374998516 |
6 | 1.1663 | 1.16518756778357 | 0.00153467782184484 | 0.00111243221642737 | 0.252032000352156 |
7 | 1.1372 | 1.13620300914173 | 0.00119528829947208 | 0.000996990858274954 | -1.16365902907142 |
8 | 1.1139 | 1.11299418953741 | 0.000896545242282436 | 0.00090581046259364 | -0.929928373548654 |
9 | 1.1222 | 1.12126699729134 | 0.000994900017994658 | 0.000933002708657762 | 0.280906530430957 |
10 | 1.1692 | 1.16810044832591 | 0.00165480388646424 | 0.00109955167409308 | 1.74461728835354 |
11 | 1.1702 | 1.16910278242538 | 0.0016447381969505 | 0.00109721757461887 | -0.024818690572936 |
12 | 1.2286 | 1.2273037851823 | 0.00257368685085531 | 0.00129621481770462 | 2.15007732690633 |
13 | 1.2613 | 1.26110672190443 | 0.00182425901796219 | 0.000193278095571254 | 1.42961647320596 |
14 | 1.2646 | 1.26457799345003 | 0.00188430741010228 | 2.20065499674343e-05 | 0.053234081152479 |
15 | 1.2262 | 1.22624051394481 | 0.00117535653373872 | -4.05139448063186e-05 | -1.52514771671431 |
16 | 1.1985 | 1.19858449812197 | 0.000640664631562474 | -8.44981219697938e-05 | -1.09269821398411 |
17 | 1.2007 | 1.20078216895854 | 0.000670917754581231 | -8.2168958542792e-05 | 0.0589816241991564 |
18 | 1.2138 | 1.21386397972149 | 0.000922614623455504 | -6.39797214936935e-05 | 0.46992450886551 |
19 | 1.2266 | 1.22664696401401 | 0.0011728148012153 | -4.6964014008739e-05 | 0.448878969916067 |
20 | 1.2176 | 1.21766121936287 | 0.000950586674349255 | -6.12193628743883e-05 | -0.384305369687713 |
21 | 1.2218 | 1.22185676876886 | 0.0010239943434762 | -5.67687688630237e-05 | 0.12270850142165 |
22 | 1.249 | 1.24902175198457 | 0.00163397326138623 | -2.17519845718105e-05 | 0.988131735105905 |
23 | 1.2991 | 1.29905847171948 | 0.00279626807410455 | 4.15282805211078e-05 | 1.82893365367462 |
24 | 1.3408 | 1.34070892755049 | 0.00375437800157831 | 9.10724495144878e-05 | 1.46760103769023 |
25 | 1.3119 | 1.31853572891711 | 0.00348746349735618 | -0.00663572891711172 | -1.07613397704392 |
26 | 1.3014 | 1.30111534046711 | 0.00274724147176267 | 0.000284659532892683 | -0.718370938893928 |
27 | 1.3201 | 1.31980323753508 | 0.00316350384358952 | 0.000296762464920785 | 0.601348146751499 |
28 | 1.2938 | 1.29352499538187 | 0.00237881273426742 | 0.000275004618129556 | -1.1103357429078 |
29 | 1.2694 | 1.26914423390536 | 0.00165194881205249 | 0.000255766094637071 | -1.00889810735449 |
30 | 1.2165 | 1.21628234258569 | 0.00014488228708965 | 0.000217657414309721 | -2.05474730773331 |
31 | 1.2037 | 1.20349113161751 | -0.000218645567545998 | 0.000208868382486066 | -0.487465957073578 |
32 | 1.2292 | 1.22897416764038 | 0.00051468973253972 | 0.000225832359615746 | 0.968273308593403 |
33 | 1.2256 | 1.22537680319196 | 0.000395691364495187 | 0.000223196808037161 | -0.154880254671523 |
34 | 1.2015 | 1.20129203345912 | -0.00032212200754904 | 0.000207966540884147 | -0.921855684392367 |
35 | 1.1786 | 1.17840565489167 | -0.000991887394774617 | 0.00019434510832971 | -0.849523864253229 |
36 | 1.1856 | 1.18540097798448 | -0.00075209505577261 | 0.000199022015521476 | 0.300653153081772 |
37 | 1.2103 | 1.2089842469676 | -0.000183480686022282 | 0.00131575303239855 | 0.975939539895688 |
38 | 1.1938 | 1.19408288150075 | -0.00070906161558893 | -0.000282881500753122 | -0.518796356248348 |
39 | 1.202 | 1.20227944863906 | -0.000434355423344117 | -0.000279448639056889 | 0.335013634804215 |
40 | 1.2271 | 1.22736991568578 | 0.00035986191558444 | -0.000269915685783065 | 0.960052646982891 |
41 | 1.277 | 1.27725200040366 | 0.00191327771186087 | -0.000252000403656207 | 1.86239025204319 |
42 | 1.265 | 1.26525687292126 | 0.00147370323455676 | -0.000256872921256574 | -0.522985629786916 |
43 | 1.2684 | 1.26865621978327 | 0.00153499078461751 | -0.000256219783267456 | 0.0723991769144068 |
44 | 1.2811 | 1.28135255536424 | 0.00189254638073148 | -0.000252555364237624 | 0.419587723836158 |
45 | 1.2727 | 1.27295582459495 | 0.00156092171129772 | -0.000255824594953821 | -0.386761040413287 |
46 | 1.2611 | 1.26135986945678 | 0.00113447228904545 | -0.000259869456781193 | -0.494498717205803 |
47 | 1.2881 | 1.28835217892168 | 0.00197701164483501 | -0.000252178921678489 | 0.971766220927739 |
48 | 1.3213 | 1.32154319935005 | 0.00299906396540314 | -0.000243199350053128 | 1.17294858427024 |
49 | 1.2999 | 1.29990003770936 | 0.00227575340902432 | -3.77093553283451e-08 | -0.971411396236973 |
50 | 1.3074 | 1.30735491717879 | 0.00246096418930566 | 4.5082821206326e-05 | 0.185162664765 |
51 | 1.3242 | 1.32415208508819 | 0.00293606724610912 | 4.79149118054201e-05 | 0.538560797037379 |
52 | 1.3516 | 1.35154741390463 | 0.00374967288382871 | 5.25860953685555e-05 | 0.91878363953994 |
53 | 1.3511 | 1.35104819826395 | 0.00360784833672563 | 5.18017360497454e-05 | -0.159593974867195 |
54 | 1.3419 | 1.34185048305278 | 0.00317902694166566 | 4.95169472189349e-05 | -0.480964345011559 |
55 | 1.3716 | 1.37154591086238 | 0.00406965710051514 | 5.40891376171052e-05 | 0.995871893721284 |
56 | 1.3622 | 1.36214815481655 | 0.00361604760398557 | 5.18451834550106e-05 | -0.505765701396804 |
57 | 1.3896 | 1.38954432635324 | 0.00441909924062358 | 5.56736467575949e-05 | 0.893011552575744 |
58 | 1.4227 | 1.42263986589655 | 0.00538985069083249 | 6.01341034543138e-05 | 1.07683054584234 |
59 | 1.4684 | 1.46833380952454 | 0.00675730503011551 | 6.61904754638338e-05 | 1.51339308399436 |
60 | 1.457 | 1.45693644481772 | 0.00614004900538516 | 6.35551822768207e-05 | -0.681667574587881 |