| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.195810608415622 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.414899767975478 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 7269 | 6992.55582264958 | 276.444177350424 |
| 14 | 6775 | 6567.29885038434 | 207.701149615657 |
| 15 | 7819 | 7674.66459736737 | 144.335402632632 |
| 16 | 8371 | 8245.08099221427 | 125.919007785729 |
| 17 | 9069 | 8938.43292824804 | 130.567071751957 |
| 18 | 10248 | 10127.8616711817 | 120.138328818333 |
| 19 | 11030 | 10919.7900222831 | 110.209977716891 |
| 20 | 10882 | 11223.7742969148 | -341.774296914818 |
| 21 | 10333 | 10360.0469224033 | -27.0469224032659 |
| 22 | 9109 | 8590.11317324654 | 518.886826753464 |
| 23 | 7685 | 7355.41237700014 | 329.587622999858 |
| 24 | 7602 | 7592.18645516083 | 9.8135448391713 |
| 25 | 8350 | 7923.37485229639 | 426.625147703614 |
| 26 | 7829 | 7504.58824661208 | 324.411753387922 |
| 27 | 8829 | 8613.66468002985 | 215.335319970154 |
| 28 | 9948 | 9191.838834564 | 756.161165436 |
| 29 | 10638 | 10010.149734626 | 627.850265374005 |
| 30 | 11253 | 11293.4721688315 | -40.4721688315403 |
| 31 | 11424 | 12050.6386069781 | -626.638606978078 |
| 32 | 11391 | 12059.5319464518 | -668.531946451816 |
| 33 | 10665 | 11236.8332615796 | -571.833261579588 |
| 34 | 9396 | 9542.37972638817 | -146.37972638817 |
| 35 | 7775 | 8114.25148940533 | -339.251489405333 |
| 36 | 7933 | 8113.3645972285 | -180.364597228501 |
| 37 | 8186 | 8546.38661910277 | -360.386619102774 |
| 38 | 7444 | 7939.39044462936 | -495.390444629358 |
| 39 | 8484 | 8851.54668712675 | -367.546687126745 |
| 40 | 9864 | 9496.03722682397 | 367.962773176028 |
| 41 | 10252 | 10195.5228062482 | 56.4771937518308 |
| 42 | 12282 | 11143.9732102771 | 1138.02678972293 |
| 43 | 11637 | 11936.3231297992 | -299.323129799228 |
| 44 | 11577 | 11995.3302644772 | -418.330264477199 |
| 45 | 12417 | 11253.8880122003 | 1163.11198779971 |
| 46 | 9637 | 10041.111134089 | -404.11113408898 |
| 47 | 8094 | 8498.16314819912 | -404.163148199121 |
| 48 | 9280 | 8537.57974601575 | 742.42025398425 |
| 49 | 8334 | 9091.22704471256 | -757.227044712556 |
| 50 | 7899 | 8361.4801997222 | -462.480199722202 |
| 51 | 9994 | 9322.73670871305 | 671.263291286954 |
| 52 | 10078 | 10416.0458719162 | -338.045871916167 |
| 53 | 10801 | 10873.3578160378 | -72.3578160377965 |
| 54 | 12950 | 12157.4486248295 | 792.551375170513 |
| 55 | 12222 | 12402.5675053199 | -180.567505319863 |
| 56 | 12246 | 12445.1205694924 | -199.120569492363 |
| 57 | 13281 | 12274.2627472829 | 1006.73725271714 |
| 58 | 10366 | 10507.9495173254 | -141.949517325365 |
| 59 | 8730 | 9016.31820219367 | -286.318202193666 |
| 60 | 9614 | 9461.37680619265 | 152.623193807354 |
| 61 | 8639 | 9399.16627733801 | -760.16627733801 |
| 62 | 8772 | 8767.18853985994 | 4.81146014006117 |
| 63 | 10894 | 10198.2282897027 | 695.771710297275 |
| 64 | 10455 | 10959.5723926655 | -504.572392665526 |
| 65 | 11179 | 11472.9256206585 | -293.925620658458 |
| 66 | 10588 | 13002.2149668028 | -2414.21496680282 |
| 67 | 10794 | 12294.7260872056 | -1500.72608720563 |
| 68 | 12770 | 12072.5877181172 | 697.41228188284 |
| 69 | 13812 | 12479.6246385678 | 1332.37536143216 |
| 70 | 10857 | 10393.8062836986 | 463.193716301434 |
| 71 | 9290 | 8972.49866782445 | 317.501332175545 |
| 72 | 10925 | 9682.24784700666 | 1242.75215299334 |
| 73 | 9491 | 9528.93663086188 | -37.936630861881 |
| 74 | 8919 | 9293.62005566991 | -374.620055669913 |
| 75 | 11607 | 10880.9074991531 | 726.092500846938 |
| 76 | 8852 | 11247.6843314854 | -2395.68433148539 |
| 77 | 12537 | 11461.0217591202 | 1075.97824087979 |
| 78 | 14759 | 12551.1013282192 | 2207.89867178083 |
| 79 | 13667 | 13053.4641976186 | 613.535802381371 |
| 80 | 13731 | 13978.7471697971 | -247.747169797149 |
| 81 | 15110 | 14412.5723490664 | 697.427650933634 |
| 82 | 12185 | 11912.4150943149 | 272.584905685055 |
| 83 | 10645 | 10405.1728229309 | 239.827177069081 |
| 84 | 12161 | 11408.4299094924 | 752.570090507586 |
| 85 | 10840 | 10731.8237974897 | 108.176202510338 |
| 86 | 10436 | 10412.7805496444 | 23.2194503556457 |
| 87 | 13589 | 12445.2307302051 | 1143.76926979491 |
| 88 | 13402 | 11852.1873155108 | 1549.81268448919 |
| 89 | 13103 | 13996.4428770617 | -893.442877061658 |
| 90 | 14933 | 15078.5631968818 | -145.563196881771 |
| 91 | 14147 | 14588.1213524094 | -441.121352409407 |
| 92 | 14057 | 15019.5173184176 | -962.517318417647 |
| 93 | 16234 | 15628.7480527601 | 605.251947239869 |
| 94 | 12389 | 12968.7896401018 | -579.789640101788 |
| 95 | 11595 | 11283.7135123575 | 311.286487642472 |
| 96 | 12772 | 12472.0438608975 | 299.956139102467 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 11491.8039649815 | 10052.7585815322 | 12930.8493484308 |
| 98 | 11123.2321697778 | 9656.85848533035 | 12589.6058542252 |
| 99 | 13525.0161383013 | 12031.8142265515 | 15018.218050051 |
| 100 | 12843.4901974036 | 11323.9336449626 | 14363.0467498446 |
| 101 | 13869.0642497214 | 12323.6024149032 | 15414.5260845396 |
| 102 | 15375.6661952126 | 13804.7262060046 | 16946.6061844205 |
| 103 | 14815.1118281989 | 13219.1003569036 | 16411.1232994941 |
| 104 | 15158.9161035644 | 13538.2209492189 | 16779.61125791 |
| 105 | 16479.7166846989 | 14834.7081892399 | 18124.7251801579 |
| 106 | 13305.8449235655 | 11636.8772435473 | 14974.8126035838 |
| 107 | 12031.6124294842 | 10339.0246817562 | 13724.2001772121 |
| 108 | 13155.2091201451 | 11439.3264171109 | 14871.0918231793 |
