Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 9.829 | 9.829 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 9.125 | 9.80890668529748 | -0.00143008314906009 | -0.375425974024312 | -2.16410084020367 |
3 | 9.782 | 9.75871855137161 | -0.0116171013506219 | 0.111946729880022 | -0.711122094591708 |
4 | 9.441 | 9.66599643166279 | -0.0258247873703129 | -0.12015415668978 | -0.906673047112183 |
5 | 9.162 | 9.52364065809337 | -0.0430868496391284 | -0.208772812716079 | -1.32687523224617 |
6 | 9.915 | 9.55377230630157 | -0.0337474280540878 | 0.255356178452237 | 0.904574911665152 |
7 | 10.444 | 9.71808357566759 | -0.0116305272011808 | 0.407961734025176 | 2.6707056131267 |
8 | 10.209 | 9.84231325916613 | 0.00183926401485604 | 0.126865418290796 | 1.98515728664676 |
9 | 9.985 | 9.89893549143782 | 0.00671883031964397 | -0.0190056585890133 | 0.859357029852691 |
10 | 9.842 | 9.90749138309682 | 0.00686730299414785 | -0.0692778615922122 | 0.0306667860390292 |
11 | 9.429 | 9.8398560286195 | 0.00135730281411214 | -0.247378592638417 | -1.31335615873897 |
12 | 10.132 | 9.86489024977465 | 0.0029713282709434 | 0.212244730035375 | 0.437829891550462 |
13 | 9.849 | 9.85547315689626 | 0.00259601221461707 | 0.0362922964242046 | -0.344054961934685 |
14 | 9.172 | 9.80791502765752 | 0.000341680822821636 | -0.501015564197216 | -1.11272542487806 |
15 | 10.313 | 9.83087631985468 | 0.00153099340133154 | 0.43067593717316 | 0.436440100119941 |
16 | 9.819 | 9.84260212699013 | 0.00208193486729224 | -0.0457808798609508 | 0.190468933647384 |
17 | 9.955 | 9.90265991323746 | 0.00514644346166466 | -0.0758404087503307 | 1.1028472412838 |
18 | 10.048 | 9.93358295530461 | 0.0064517841388373 | 0.0552230864433028 | 0.508028227556528 |
19 | 10.082 | 9.93122627725613 | 0.00602807080960183 | 0.171878480446447 | -0.180445678390151 |
20 | 10.541 | 9.99764250266476 | 0.00877908334659798 | 0.392704646565948 | 1.28309958072438 |
21 | 10.208 | 10.0455908069469 | 0.010467248032316 | 0.0610492602051635 | 0.860157625616102 |
22 | 10.233 | 10.0866227667728 | 0.0117106307526574 | 0.0645952990194335 | 0.691630098790339 |
23 | 9.439 | 10.0635437129527 | 0.0103884128039947 | -0.528310269956603 | -0.810833129372798 |
24 | 9.963 | 10.0271806572369 | 0.00879150153055564 | 0.0706758268026154 | -1.13098956559884 |
25 | 10.158 | 10.0287701504047 | 0.00860385256650526 | 0.151787324819502 | -0.188703637437372 |
26 | 9.225 | 10.0094454291671 | 0.00784731627872468 | -0.699177292824764 | -0.714911534543254 |
27 | 10.474 | 10.0165854604743 | 0.00782622870884003 | 0.459476113351375 | -0.0174023687527663 |
28 | 9.757 | 10.0092677138061 | 0.00734975079196719 | -0.20925081182984 | -0.364960031624052 |
29 | 10.49 | 10.0747404391147 | 0.00920655205934195 | 0.251054536522114 | 1.39637907209921 |
30 | 10.281 | 10.1176821572159 | 0.0102742257083904 | 0.067357834237683 | 0.816393825076508 |
31 | 10.444 | 10.1632725352715 | 0.0113652646705023 | 0.178968390909688 | 0.865215641956152 |
32 | 10.64 | 10.1981362358902 | 0.0120673114326822 | 0.373107258098605 | 0.583954036840811 |
33 | 10.695 | 10.2610544611003 | 0.0135258883146139 | 0.282721202169651 | 1.28255849631834 |
34 | 10.786 | 10.3259169774665 | 0.0149275864132459 | 0.304832872562372 | 1.31457115863458 |
35 | 9.832 | 10.3508834039834 | 0.01518485744997 | -0.549796930317118 | 0.261274579728104 |
36 | 9.747 | 10.3021332985776 | 0.0136846889662288 | -0.354020488789147 | -1.69638232496869 |
37 | 10.411 | 10.2915231508284 | 0.0131772525773308 | 0.197794542333461 | -0.65946295490803 |
38 | 9.511 | 10.2904701444378 | 0.0128833224075267 | -0.733699850060103 | -0.385418242308115 |
39 | 10.402 | 10.2676601082741 | 0.0121155313439677 | 0.247460872252597 | -0.954429757172428 |
40 | 9.701 | 10.2451339572144 | 0.0113415332784254 | -0.435672123924506 | -0.917060281020503 |
41 | 10.54 | 10.2572008948213 | 0.0113580611299844 | 0.280539540442948 | 0.0191311251451253 |
42 | 10.112 | 10.2541402154378 | 0.0110289641249001 | -0.0971866991354684 | -0.380822519672974 |
43 | 10.915 | 10.3129267444893 | 0.0121058098888604 | 0.452446127047081 | 1.26750891056777 |
44 | 11.183 | 10.3926978144755 | 0.0135970071656939 | 0.576754748508703 | 1.80818829274647 |
45 | 10.384 | 10.4015724346401 | 0.0134962154882829 | -0.00253943489457393 | -0.127200806928218 |
46 | 10.834 | 10.4220311535008 | 0.0136388136075321 | 0.389591735474431 | 0.189175639644208 |
47 | 9.886 | 10.4266742613601 | 0.0134638745693697 | -0.511460375340924 | -0.24672783672698 |
48 | 10.216 | 10.4443808222133 | 0.0135414025469193 | -0.242311827681285 | 0.117536154992626 |
49 | 10.943 | 10.4807181328235 | 0.0139332855254237 | 0.386705530469537 | 0.63708204975121 |
50 | 9.867 | 10.5047194676635 | 0.0141032813973789 | -0.671132978013069 | 0.281614513017286 |
51 | 10.203 | 10.4670493581194 | 0.01321720437314 | -0.0930473335481057 | -1.4421183296814 |
52 | 10.837 | 10.5411697570066 | 0.0142812480474876 | 0.0957339068636352 | 1.68897789758883 |
53 | 10.573 | 10.5505395725496 | 0.014194229756181 | 0.0385497248482355 | -0.13590308233299 |
54 | 10.647 | 10.5912288544154 | 0.0146651861597838 | -0.031018374455583 | 0.733363050986384 |
55 | 11.502 | 10.6634971975122 | 0.0156815490336167 | 0.649379978623959 | 1.59813696534619 |
56 | 10.656 | 10.6406216589743 | 0.0150126071389942 | 0.142470324995907 | -1.07373318458846 |
57 | 10.866 | 10.6667900918193 | 0.0152013283607375 | 0.162251742712455 | 0.312117479504484 |
58 | 10.835 | 10.6635168915234 | 0.0148989297363189 | 0.233041862126717 | -0.519607089550707 |
59 | 9.945 | 10.6557354717869 | 0.0145421397926016 | -0.634693319004723 | -0.641491105688102 |
60 | 10.331 | 10.6586320703957 | 0.0143666931449317 | -0.288348577435209 | -0.331207289021549 |