Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.415506640094717 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 9.849 | 9.67237259615384 | 0.176627403846156 |
14 | 9.172 | 9.01673288170163 | 0.155267118298372 |
15 | 10.313 | 10.1547181672494 | 0.158281832750587 |
16 | 9.819 | 9.65524511946387 | 0.163754880536134 |
17 | 9.955 | 9.79464707167832 | 0.160352928321682 |
18 | 10.048 | 9.9143823572261 | 0.133617642773897 |
19 | 10.082 | 10.5306176427739 | -0.44861764277389 |
20 | 10.541 | 10.312936261655 | 0.228063738344993 |
21 | 10.208 | 10.0849632138695 | 0.123036786130541 |
22 | 10.233 | 9.92419849941724 | 0.308801500582756 |
23 | 9.439 | 9.48251711829836 | -0.0435171182983627 |
24 | 9.963 | 10.1670440705128 | -0.204044070512817 |
25 | 10.158 | 9.98708588184804 | 0.170914118151963 |
26 | 9.225 | 9.3225708269164 | -0.0975708269163977 |
27 | 10.474 | 10.4618087463371 | 0.0121912536629321 |
28 | 9.757 | 9.96460978624797 | -0.207609786247971 |
29 | 10.49 | 10.102598204728 | 0.387401795271968 |
30 | 10.281 | 10.2112248016059 | 0.0697751983941153 |
31 | 10.444 | 10.5855374599111 | -0.141537459911122 |
32 | 10.64 | 10.6490216858756 | -0.00902168587559871 |
33 | 10.695 | 10.377409242056 | 0.317590757943965 |
34 | 10.786 | 10.293830999954 | 0.492169000045983 |
35 | 9.832 | 9.70575889326103 | 0.126241106738972 |
36 | 9.747 | 10.3235858309162 | -0.57658583091621 |
37 | 10.411 | 10.2994252593995 | 0.111574740600465 |
38 | 9.511 | 9.52335292702653 | -0.0123529270265266 |
39 | 10.402 | 10.7081977197585 | -0.306197719758519 |
40 | 9.701 | 10.1196699680867 | -0.418669968086716 |
41 | 10.54 | 10.5048896496216 | 0.0351103503784262 |
42 | 10.112 | 10.481540286426 | -0.369540286425989 |
43 | 10.915 | 10.7680511320693 | 0.146948867930664 |
44 | 11.183 | 10.8865965420629 | 0.296403457937137 |
45 | 10.384 | 10.7506937373879 | -0.366693737387891 |
46 | 10.834 | 10.7396539140953 | 0.094346085904677 |
47 | 9.886 | 9.9995363379374 | -0.113536337937402 |
48 | 10.216 | 10.3253340161594 | -0.109334016159419 |
49 | 10.943 | 10.5871087315593 | 0.355891268440704 |
50 | 9.867 | 9.75954363039582 | 0.107456369604179 |
51 | 10.203 | 10.8222939605904 | -0.619293960590417 |
52 | 10.837 | 10.1870332429119 | 0.649966757088134 |
53 | 10.573 | 10.7608016599133 | -0.187801659913283 |
54 | 10.647 | 10.5693172702069 | 0.0776827297930893 |
55 | 11.502 | 11.0704327890224 | 0.431567210977649 |
56 | 10.656 | 11.2510775735562 | -0.595077573556202 |
57 | 10.866 | 10.8396534811955 | 0.0263465188045036 |
58 | 10.835 | 11.0201787658291 | -0.185178765829084 |
59 | 9.945 | 10.1936846622058 | -0.248684662205795 |
60 | 10.331 | 10.5212284330304 | -0.190228433030381 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 10.9763073433216 | 10.4144447588637 | 11.5381699277794 |
62 | 10.0455158920603 | 9.48365330760238 | 10.6073784765181 |
63 | 10.806296634368 | 10.2444340499101 | 11.3681592188258 |
64 | 10.6984221728962 | 10.1365595884384 | 11.2602847573541 |
65 | 10.9240922497719 | 10.3622296653141 | 11.4859548342298 |
66 | 10.84291838683 | 10.2810558023722 | 11.4047809712879 |
67 | 11.4910752574041 | 10.9292126729463 | 12.052937841862 |
68 | 11.2451423169456 | 10.6832797324877 | 11.8070049014034 |
69 | 11.0919240612756 | 10.5300614768177 | 11.6537866457334 |
70 | 11.184559185596 | 10.6226966011381 | 11.7464217700539 |
71 | 10.331677960343 | 9.76981537588513 | 10.8935405448009 |
72 | 10.6835106825449 | 10.121648098087 | 11.2453732670027 |