| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0347340612933478 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 9.9 | 10.06 | -0.159999999999998 |
| 4 | 9.8 | 10.0144425501931 | -0.214442550193063 |
| 5 | 9.86 | 9.90699408951076 | -0.0469940895107577 |
| 6 | 10.5 | 9.96536179392526 | 0.534638206074737 |
| 7 | 10.33 | 10.6239319501448 | -0.293931950144829 |
| 8 | 10.16 | 10.4437224997724 | -0.283722499772425 |
| 9 | 9.91 | 10.263867665075 | -0.353867665075029 |
| 10 | 9.96 | 10.0015764039066 | -0.0415764039065785 |
| 11 | 10.03 | 10.0501322865449 | -0.020132286544932 |
| 12 | 9.55 | 10.1194330104701 | -0.569433010470103 |
| 13 | 9.51 | 9.61965428938198 | -0.109654289381981 |
| 14 | 9.8 | 9.5758455505735 | 0.224154449426493 |
| 15 | 10.08 | 9.87363134495907 | 0.206368655040935 |
| 16 | 10.2 | 10.1607993664723 | 0.0392006335277184 |
| 17 | 10.23 | 10.28216096368 | -0.0521609636799703 |
| 18 | 10.2 | 10.3103492015704 | -0.110349201570392 |
| 19 | 10.07 | 10.2765163256394 | -0.206516325639372 |
| 20 | 10.01 | 10.1393431749265 | -0.129343174926539 |
| 21 | 10.05 | 10.0748505611608 | -0.024850561160763 |
| 22 | 9.92 | 10.1139874002462 | -0.193987400246233 |
| 23 | 10.03 | 9.97724942999594 | 0.0527505700040578 |
| 24 | 10.18 | 10.0890816715277 | 0.090918328472279 |
| 25 | 10.1 | 10.2422396343216 | -0.142239634321566 |
| 26 | 10.16 | 10.1572990741447 | 0.00270092585530257 |
| 27 | 10.15 | 10.2173928882689 | -0.0673928882689054 |
| 28 | 10.13 | 10.205052059557 | -0.0750520595570361 |
| 29 | 10.09 | 10.1824451967202 | -0.0924451967201918 |
| 30 | 10.18 | 10.139234199591 | 0.0407658004089644 |
| 31 | 10.06 | 10.2306501614011 | -0.170650161401113 |
| 32 | 9.65 | 10.1047227882353 | -0.454722788235287 |
| 33 | 9.74 | 9.67892841903724 | 0.0610715809627589 |
| 34 | 9.53 | 9.77104968307368 | -0.241049683073683 |
| 35 | 9.5 | 9.55267704860706 | -0.0526770486070589 |
| 36 | 9 | 9.520847360772 | -0.52084736077199 |
| 37 | 9.15 | 9.00275621661846 | 0.147243783381544 |
| 38 | 9.32 | 9.1578705912155 | 0.162129408784505 |
| 39 | 9.62 | 9.33350200403767 | 0.286497995962328 |
| 40 | 9.59 | 9.64345324298985 | -0.0534532429898462 |
| 41 | 9.37 | 9.61159659477151 | -0.241596594771512 |
| 42 | 9.35 | 9.38320496384045 | -0.0332049638404524 |
| 43 | 9.32 | 9.36205162059117 | -0.0420516205911738 |
| 44 | 9.49 | 9.33059099702408 | 0.159409002975924 |
| 45 | 9.52 | 9.50612791910415 | 0.0138720808958457 |
| 46 | 9.59 | 9.53660975281226 | 0.0533902471877443 |
| 47 | 9.35 | 9.60846421293054 | -0.258464212930543 |
| 48 | 9.2 | 9.35948670111648 | -0.159486701116476 |
| 49 | 9.57 | 9.20394708026442 | 0.366052919735578 |
| 50 | 9.78 | 9.58666158481513 | 0.193338415184872 |
| 51 | 9.79 | 9.80337701317852 | -0.0133770131785163 |
| 52 | 9.57 | 9.81291237518285 | -0.242912375182851 |
| 53 | 9.53 | 9.58447504185434 | -0.0544750418543387 |
| 54 | 9.65 | 9.54258290241161 | 0.107417097588389 |
| 55 | 9.36 | 9.6663139344632 | -0.306313934463201 |
| 56 | 9.4 | 9.36567440748855 | 0.0343255925114523 |
| 57 | 9.32 | 9.40686667472277 | -0.0868666747227724 |
| 58 | 9.31 | 9.3238494423186 | -0.0138494423186017 |
| 59 | 9.19 | 9.31336839494023 | -0.123368394940231 |
| 60 | 9.39 | 9.18908330954871 | 0.200916690451287 |
| 61 | 9.28 | 9.3960619621897 | -0.116061962189706 |
| 62 | 9.28 | 9.28203065888118 | -0.00203065888118203 |
| 63 | 9.31 | 9.28196012585114 | 0.028039874148865 |
| 64 | 9.28 | 9.31293406455848 | -0.0329340645584821 |
| 65 | 9.31 | 9.28179013074147 | 0.028209869258534 |
| 66 | 9.35 | 9.31276997406937 | 0.0372300259306275 |
| 67 | 9.19 | 9.354063124072 | -0.164063124071999 |
| 68 | 9.07 | 9.1883645454645 | -0.118364545464503 |
| 69 | 8.96 | 9.06425326408738 | -0.104253264087379 |
| 70 | 8.69 | 8.95063212482254 | -0.260632124822539 |
| 71 | 8.58 | 8.67157931262394 | -0.091579312623935 |
| 72 | 8.56 | 8.55839839116605 | 0.00160160883394589 |
| 73 | 8.47 | 8.53845402154546 | -0.0684540215454597 |
| 74 | 8.46 | 8.44607633536532 | 0.0139236646346763 |
| 75 | 8.75 | 8.43655996078617 | 0.313440039213827 |
| 76 | 8.95 | 8.73744700632001 | 0.212552993679985 |
| 77 | 9.33 | 8.94482983503058 | 0.38517016496942 |
| 78 | 9.51 | 9.338208359149 | 0.171791640851003 |
| 79 | 9.561 | 9.524175380532 | 0.0368246194679998 |
| 80 | 9.94 | 9.5764544491217 | 0.363545550878293 |
| 81 | 9.9 | 9.96808186256884 | -0.0680818625688353 |
| 82 | 9.275 | 9.9257171029814 | -0.650717102981405 |
| 83 | 9.56 | 9.27811505524182 | 0.281884944758181 |
| 84 | 9.779 | 9.57290606419072 | 0.206093935809276 |
| 85 | 9.746 | 9.7990645435893 | -0.0530645435893078 |
| 86 | 9.991 | 9.76422139647977 | 0.226778603520225 |
| 87 | 9.98 | 10.0170983383945 | -0.0370983383944647 |
| 88 | 10.195 | 10.0048097624348 | 0.19019023756521 |
| 89 | 10.31 | 10.2264158418038 | 0.0835841581962224 |
| 90 | 10.25 | 10.3443190590777 | -0.0943190590777174 |
| 91 | 9.871 | 10.2810429750986 | -0.41004297509858 |
| 92 | 10.06 | 9.8878005172686 | 0.172199482731399 |
| 93 | 9.894 | 10.0827817046565 | -0.188781704656476 |
| 94 | 9.59 | 9.91022454935588 | -0.320224549355876 |
| 95 | 9.64 | 9.59510185023091 | 0.0448981497690877 |
| 96 | 9.89 | 9.64666134531695 | 0.243338654683049 |
| 97 | 9.53 | 9.90511348506375 | -0.375113485063753 |
| 98 | 9.388 | 9.53208427028159 | -0.144084270281587 |
| 99 | 9.16 | 9.38507963840622 | -0.225079638406219 |
| 100 | 9.418 | 9.14926170844993 | 0.268738291550067 |
| 101 | 9.57 | 9.4165960807405 | 0.153403919259498 |
| 102 | 9.857 | 9.5739244218747 | 0.283075578125297 |
| 103 | 9.877 | 9.87075678635595 | 0.00624321364404601 |
| 104 | 9.76 | 9.89097363852134 | -0.130973638521336 |
| 105 | 9.76 | 9.76942439213312 | -0.00942439213312163 |
| 106 | 9.695 | 9.76909704471912 | -0.0740970447191174 |
| 107 | 9.475 | 9.70152335342619 | -0.226523353426188 |
| 108 | 9.262 | 9.4736552773839 | -0.211655277383908 |
| 109 | 9.097 | 9.2533036300062 | -0.156303630006196 |
| 110 | 8.55 | 9.08287457014119 | -0.532874570141185 |
| 111 | 8.16 | 8.51736567216024 | -0.357365672160238 |
| 112 | 7.532 | 8.11495291099929 | -0.582952910999285 |
| 113 | 7.325 | 7.4667045888575 | -0.1417045888575 |
| 114 | 6.749 | 7.25478261298258 | -0.505782612982576 |
| 115 | 7.13 | 6.66121472870213 | 0.468785271297872 |
| 116 | 6.995 | 7.0584975450488 | -0.0634975450488078 |
| 117 | 7.346 | 6.9212920174271 | 0.424707982572895 |
| 118 | 7.73 | 7.28704385052557 | 0.442956149474434 |
| 119 | 7.837 | 7.68642951657168 | 0.150570483428322 |
| 120 | 7.514 | 7.79865944097204 | -0.284659440972044 |
| 121 | 7.58 | 7.46577206250159 | 0.114227937498408 |
| 122 | 6.83 | 7.53573966268407 | -0.705739662684074 |
| 123 | 6.617 | 6.76122645798326 | -0.144226457983259 |
| 124 | 6.715 | 6.54321688735155 | 0.171783112648454 |
| 125 | 6.63 | 6.64718361251544 | -0.0171836125154394 |
| 126 | 6.891 | 6.56158675586509 | 0.329413244134913 |
| 127 | 7.002 | 6.83402861567771 | 0.16797138432229 |
| 128 | 7.09 | 6.95086294403629 | 0.139137055963712 |
| 129 | 7.36 | 7.04369573906631 | 0.316304260933692 |
| 130 | 7.477 | 7.32468227065293 | 0.152317729347074 |
| 131 | 7.826 | 7.44697288400013 | 0.379027115999868 |
| 132 | 7.79 | 7.80913803507911 | -0.019138035079111 |
| 133 | 7.578 | 7.77247329339564 | -0.194473293395639 |
| 134 | 7.204 | 7.55371844610292 | -0.349718446102917 |
| 135 | 7.198 | 7.16757130416056 | 0.0304286958394382 |
| 136 | 7.685 | 7.16262821634693 | 0.522371783653073 |
| 137 | 7.795 | 7.66777230989825 | 0.127227690101753 |
| 138 | 7.46 | 7.78219144428445 | -0.322191444284453 |
| 139 | 7.274 | 7.43600042691048 | -0.162000426910485 |
| 140 | 7.33 | 7.24437349415263 | 0.0856265058473724 |
| 141 | 7.655 | 7.30334765045507 | 0.351652349544935 |
| 142 | 7.767 | 7.64056196471811 | 0.126438035281891 |
| 143 | 7.84 | 7.7569536711854 | 0.0830463288145991 |
| 144 | 7.424 | 7.83283820746063 | -0.408838207460634 |
| 145 | 7.54 | 7.40263759610363 | 0.137362403896366 |
| 146 | 7.351 | 7.52340875025997 | -0.172408750259972 |
| 147 | 6.735 | 7.32842029416093 | -0.593420294160932 |
| 148 | 6.777 | 6.69180839729083 | 0.0851916027091697 |
| 149 | 6.679 | 6.73676744764101 | -0.0577674476410088 |
| 150 | 7.34 | 6.63676094957389 | 0.703239050426114 |
| 151 | 6.978 | 7.32218729785526 | -0.344187297855263 |
| 152 | 6.92 | 6.94823227515517 | -0.0282322751551662 |
| 153 | 6.628 | 6.88925165357948 | -0.261251653579476 |
| 154 | 6.385 | 6.58817732263106 | -0.203177322631058 |
| 155 | 5.984 | 6.33812014905337 | -0.354120149053372 |
| 156 | 6.268 | 5.92482011809094 | 0.343179881909057 |
| 157 | 6.596 | 6.22074014914382 | 0.375259850856184 |
| 158 | 6.395 | 6.56177444780439 | -0.166774447804388 |
| 159 | 6.715 | 6.35498169391219 | 0.360018306087815 |
| 160 | 6.804 | 6.68748659182257 | 0.116513408177433 |
| 161 | 6.929 | 6.7805335756837 | 0.148466424316301 |
| 162 | 6.846 | 6.9106904175659 | -0.0646904175659051 |
| 163 | 6.992 | 6.82544345663708 | 0.166556543362921 |
| 164 | 6.774 | 6.97722864182305 | -0.203228641823054 |
| 165 | 6.75 | 6.75216968572141 | -0.00216968572140885 |
| 166 | 6.485 | 6.72809432372457 | -0.243094323724574 |
| 167 | 6.27 | 6.45465067058426 | -0.184650670584261 |
| 168 | 6.47 | 6.23323700287433 | 0.236762997125672 |
| 169 | 6.78 | 6.44146074332849 | 0.338539256671512 |
| 170 | 6.71 | 6.76321958661992 | -0.053219586619921 |
| 171 | 6.141 | 6.69137105423626 | -0.550371054236258 |
| 172 | 6.72 | 6.10325443230433 | 0.616745567695668 |
| 173 | 6.68 | 6.70367651065507 | -0.0236765106550729 |
| 174 | 6.371 | 6.66285412928277 | -0.291854129282767 |
| 175 | 6.097 | 6.34371685006754 | -0.246716850067543 |
| 176 | 6.27 | 6.0611473718752 | 0.208852628124804 |
| 177 | 6.447 | 6.24140167186176 | 0.205598328138241 |
| 178 | 6.37 | 6.42554293679312 | -0.0555429367931222 |
| 179 | 6.446 | 6.34661370502214 | 0.0993862949778617 |
| 180 | 6.54 | 6.42606579468362 | 0.113934205316383 |
| 181 | 6.374 | 6.52402319235449 | -0.150023192354486 |
| 182 | 6.33 | 6.35281227759582 | -0.0228122775958211 |
| 183 | 6.63 | 6.30801991454757 | 0.321980085452433 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 184 | 6.61920359057091 | 6.1261785732568 | 7.11222860788502 |
| 185 | 6.60840718114182 | 5.89895213380935 | 7.31786222847429 |
| 186 | 6.59761077171273 | 5.71367361084997 | 7.48154793257549 |
| 187 | 6.58681436228364 | 5.54868358868444 | 7.62494513588284 |
| 188 | 6.57601795285455 | 5.39575324725056 | 7.75628265845854 |
