| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 579 | 579 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 572 | 573.78227118693 | -5.36502395261287 | -1.78227118693004 | -0.580403680188635 |
| 3 | 560 | 561.020891519191 | -10.4690351756845 | -1.02089151919112 | -0.507111229394633 |
| 4 | 551 | 550.407714961456 | -10.574621221806 | 0.592285038544122 | -0.0102470824093044 |
| 5 | 537 | 537.624441689448 | -12.1601416721724 | -0.624441689448259 | -0.147838492444449 |
| 6 | 541 | 537.436001149707 | -3.61943323532491 | 3.5639988502927 | 0.804388067722987 |
| 7 | 588 | 576.821395703789 | 27.1627541934776 | 11.1786042962111 | 2.89717647843952 |
| 8 | 607 | 609.311564562824 | 30.9787212892291 | -2.31156456282418 | 0.358928301259342 |
| 9 | 599 | 608.601418498283 | 8.28266571490497 | -9.6014184982826 | -2.1349852817983 |
| 10 | 578 | 584.546794268224 | -14.8732248262237 | -6.54679426822425 | -2.17820156481726 |
| 11 | 563 | 562.343732515529 | -20.1214962282944 | 0.656267484471447 | -0.493685757713156 |
| 12 | 566 | 560.278059930097 | -7.19307203925155 | 5.72194006990316 | 1.21613130063793 |
| 13 | 561 | 560.321470476319 | -2.02512460128784 | 0.678529523681262 | 0.487630970225853 |
| 14 | 554 | 555.358793568843 | -4.13100150319866 | -1.35879356884296 | -0.201215976134185 |
| 15 | 540 | 542.119698607822 | -10.4307456765014 | -2.11969860782193 | -0.589274346758467 |
| 16 | 526 | 523.34917698619 | -16.1805973855185 | 2.65082301381014 | -0.549444814242493 |
| 17 | 512 | 512.309301949196 | -12.6115514274468 | -0.309301949196025 | 0.335767084725368 |
| 18 | 505 | 512.378826190646 | -3.87787595342705 | -7.3788261906461 | 0.819488472203607 |
| 19 | 554 | 539.309040615065 | 17.3281105228412 | 14.6909593849352 | 1.99626014187738 |
| 20 | 584 | 575.234101768005 | 30.1503378346584 | 8.76589823199522 | 1.20641327156394 |
| 21 | 569 | 578.071278709371 | 11.3106242704455 | -9.07127870937059 | -1.77205436861136 |
| 22 | 540 | 552.959184520573 | -13.8116136810554 | -12.9591845205729 | -2.36332264380833 |
| 23 | 522 | 527.861957594521 | -21.5928080909369 | -5.86195759452108 | -0.731957995167003 |
| 24 | 526 | 518.63512479902 | -13.0756859076873 | 7.36487520097987 | 0.801444897398918 |
| 25 | 527 | 521.592134063021 | -2.03183122455714 | 5.40786593697929 | 1.04201008281554 |
| 26 | 516 | 515.649929479022 | -4.72884425386792 | 0.350070520977527 | -0.254072064783417 |
| 27 | 503 | 502.546601421248 | -10.4463254823646 | 0.453398578751639 | -0.536529910866877 |
| 28 | 489 | 486.388132693152 | -14.3342888665454 | 2.61186730684841 | -0.367696779576464 |
| 29 | 479 | 479.95159261594 | -8.93140187628924 | -0.9515926159399 | 0.509392536298835 |
| 30 | 475 | 489.657536706725 | 3.78416606079326 | -14.657536706725 | 1.1938034639648 |
| 31 | 524 | 513.309334564641 | 17.3086634222023 | 10.6906654353591 | 1.27189894424479 |
| 32 | 552 | 535.241102088554 | 20.4587530745406 | 16.7588979114457 | 0.296415992092518 |
| 33 | 532 | 535.087700946648 | 6.40310665304253 | -3.08770094664837 | -1.32213558584483 |
| 34 | 511 | 523.889974814094 | -5.59954163012646 | -12.8899748140936 | -1.12907812399216 |
| 35 | 492 | 505.40826807151 | -14.3799326543555 | -13.4082680715101 | -0.825957409020663 |
| 36 | 492 | 490.159387809134 | -14.9718357239878 | 1.84061219086566 | -0.055715077814562 |
| 37 | 493 | 483.727982821278 | -9.15007514374515 | 9.27201717872216 | 0.548613452503316 |
| 38 | 481 | 476.277815521165 | -7.99166978520695 | 4.72218447883473 | 0.108954130784912 |
| 39 | 462 | 459.857730683978 | -13.7070030733192 | 2.14226931602165 | -0.536989025024042 |
| 40 | 457 | 452.930551602342 | -9.11692292443604 | 4.06944839765754 | 0.432817957930105 |
| 41 | 442 | 448.338888121374 | -6.04436953307094 | -6.33888812137366 | 0.289574272635316 |
| 42 | 439 | 457.636115765419 | 4.36702249830156 | -18.6361157654189 | 0.978466942791326 |
| 43 | 488 | 476.822312826248 | 14.4050861440719 | 11.1776871737522 | 0.943636888810621 |
| 44 | 521 | 497.369764754746 | 18.5662000979717 | 23.6302352452535 | 0.391461334167004 |
| 45 | 501 | 502.538711795708 | 9.48406729649796 | -1.53871179570817 | -0.854359678919988 |
| 46 | 485 | 497.234315621802 | -0.542456953220673 | -12.2343156218023 | -0.943164385877942 |
| 47 | 464 | 481.459492785245 | -10.8663945644042 | -17.4594927852446 | -0.971243532705321 |
| 48 | 460 | 462.985279004004 | -16.0220635968311 | -2.98527900400395 | -0.485298692417457 |
| 49 | 467 | 454.973248195436 | -10.590543991243 | 12.0267518045642 | 0.511400129119689 |
| 50 | 460 | 450.089952214207 | -6.72317406293345 | 9.91004778579284 | 0.363646111755285 |
| 51 | 448 | 445.661188003657 | -5.17293298916371 | 2.33881199634323 | 0.145728527252624 |
| 52 | 443 | 439.458258251332 | -5.86823498685472 | 3.54174174866806 | -0.0654925513678355 |
| 53 | 436 | 444.26469576307 | 1.35044100365705 | -8.26469576307033 | 0.679991718824429 |
| 54 | 431 | 454.007867010644 | 7.02709314111017 | -23.0078670106438 | 0.533807926001461 |
| 55 | 484 | 473.157794642424 | 15.2163545336217 | 10.8422053575757 | 0.769838415804638 |
| 56 | 510 | 484.753446771971 | 12.7713543649846 | 25.2465532280293 | -0.229966114076402 |
| 57 | 513 | 507.021815546634 | 19.1869172239593 | 5.97818445336597 | 0.603517030384766 |
| 58 | 503 | 513.900130246228 | 10.8707553946949 | -10.9001302462276 | -0.782318111235499 |
| 59 | 471 | 494.067492200091 | -9.87112884909107 | -23.0674922000909 | -1.95153713552498 |
| 60 | 471 | 477.296227028301 | -14.5332271311501 | -6.29622702830081 | -0.438795500268371 |
