| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.896019100477419 |
| beta | 0.149965314457529 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 519 | 495.152617126487 | 23.8473828735126 |
| 14 | 517 | 517.285341877365 | -0.285341877364772 |
| 15 | 510 | 512.543885898163 | -2.54388589816313 |
| 16 | 509 | 511.77398259048 | -2.77398259047987 |
| 17 | 501 | 504.039839483569 | -3.03983948356949 |
| 18 | 507 | 509.798531759515 | -2.79853175951524 |
| 19 | 569 | 568.25967113385 | 0.74032886614998 |
| 20 | 580 | 579.627228729263 | 0.372771270736848 |
| 21 | 578 | 579.810609693414 | -1.81060969341377 |
| 22 | 565 | 575.267047567444 | -10.2670475674438 |
| 23 | 547 | 555.059916434488 | -8.05991643448772 |
| 24 | 555 | 549.807403639914 | 5.19259636008599 |
| 25 | 562 | 563.870693221883 | -1.87069322188279 |
| 26 | 561 | 556.062514240995 | 4.93748575900509 |
| 27 | 555 | 551.903892114055 | 3.09610788594466 |
| 28 | 544 | 553.618642200399 | -9.61864220039945 |
| 29 | 537 | 535.969238799313 | 1.03076120068749 |
| 30 | 543 | 543.183176255541 | -0.183176255541412 |
| 31 | 594 | 606.001986407741 | -12.0019864077411 |
| 32 | 611 | 602.089278051318 | 8.91072194868218 |
| 33 | 613 | 606.504469851434 | 6.49553014856622 |
| 34 | 611 | 606.22826727301 | 4.77173272698951 |
| 35 | 594 | 598.804345495192 | -4.80434549519202 |
| 36 | 595 | 598.594921159887 | -3.59492115988689 |
| 37 | 591 | 603.94776852926 | -12.9477685292593 |
| 38 | 589 | 584.523110792841 | 4.47688920715916 |
| 39 | 584 | 577.198186207734 | 6.80181379226588 |
| 40 | 573 | 579.132619056229 | -6.13261905622869 |
| 41 | 567 | 564.185069114877 | 2.81493088512309 |
| 42 | 569 | 572.34002679714 | -3.34002679713979 |
| 43 | 621 | 632.664381004718 | -11.6643810047181 |
| 44 | 629 | 630.341379251068 | -1.34137925106791 |
| 45 | 628 | 622.547424939059 | 5.45257506094106 |
| 46 | 612 | 618.258537483585 | -6.25853748358486 |
| 47 | 595 | 595.884560743539 | -0.884560743539168 |
| 48 | 597 | 595.814635810382 | 1.18536418961776 |
| 49 | 593 | 601.58976680362 | -8.58976680362014 |
| 50 | 590 | 585.577187886504 | 4.42281211349575 |
| 51 | 580 | 576.205294108798 | 3.7947058912016 |
| 52 | 574 | 571.571038970495 | 2.42896102950533 |
| 53 | 573 | 563.798811603177 | 9.20118839682266 |
| 54 | 573 | 576.500238726862 | -3.50023872686211 |
| 55 | 620 | 635.617675603752 | -15.6176756037519 |
| 56 | 626 | 629.6454873794 | -3.64548737939992 |
| 57 | 620 | 619.03325840312 | 0.966741596879956 |
| 58 | 588 | 607.604795019858 | -19.6047950198581 |
| 59 | 566 | 570.691464189829 | -4.69146418982916 |
| 60 | 577 | 563.14318215259 | 13.8568178474098 |
| 61 | 561 | 576.565347258292 | -15.5653472582917 |
| 62 | 549 | 552.509894888093 | -3.50989488809262 |
| 63 | 532 | 532.45165269515 | -0.451652695150301 |
| 64 | 526 | 519.65593034402 | 6.34406965597975 |
| 65 | 511 | 512.607365407336 | -1.60736540733615 |
| 66 | 499 | 508.389266012661 | -9.38926601266144 |
| 67 | 555 | 546.117985666576 | 8.88201433342363 |
| 68 | 565 | 558.274471318732 | 6.72552868126752 |
| 69 | 542 | 555.404035729895 | -13.4040357298946 |
| 70 | 527 | 526.148836956353 | 0.85116304364658 |
| 71 | 510 | 508.95177478121 | 1.04822521878958 |
| 72 | 514 | 507.296656213074 | 6.7033437869265 |
| 73 | 517 | 509.3459771847 | 7.6540228153002 |
| 74 | 508 | 508.962377934173 | -0.962377934172878 |
| 75 | 493 | 493.950882115909 | -0.950882115908826 |
| 76 | 490 | 483.391228790408 | 6.60877120959174 |
| 77 | 469 | 477.913011507385 | -8.91301150738468 |
| 78 | 478 | 466.790646709776 | 11.2093532902241 |
| 79 | 528 | 526.07737427003 | 1.92262572996981 |
| 80 | 534 | 534.053007923467 | -0.0530079234665664 |
| 81 | 518 | 525.160939996395 | -7.1609399963952 |
| 82 | 506 | 505.982412837625 | 0.0175871623750368 |
| 83 | 502 | 490.951338984673 | 11.0486610153267 |
| 84 | 516 | 502.525559431693 | 13.4744405683071 |
| 85 | 528 | 515.379209738477 | 12.6207902615226 |
| 86 | 533 | 523.712064885863 | 9.2879351141371 |
| 87 | 536 | 523.847723464494 | 12.1522765355063 |
| 88 | 537 | 533.461265846623 | 3.53873415337728 |
| 89 | 524 | 530.12959350431 | -6.12959350430958 |
| 90 | 536 | 531.81186884958 | 4.18813115042008 |
| 91 | 587 | 597.663629278294 | -10.6636292782937 |
| 92 | 597 | 601.212283981931 | -4.21228398193148 |
| 93 | 581 | 592.438111859684 | -11.4381118596835 |
| 94 | 564 | 573.873529788956 | -9.87352978895626 |
| 95 | 558 | 553.234302823314 | 4.76569717668644 |
| 96 | 575 | 562.350248676714 | 12.6497513232858 |
| 97 | 580 | 576.847250405073 | 3.1527495949274 |
| 98 | 575 | 576.989648381008 | -1.98964838100778 |
| 99 | 563 | 566.087652129082 | -3.08765212908213 |
| 100 | 552 | 558.459977641041 | -6.45997764104072 |
| 101 | 537 | 541.206802761931 | -4.20680276193082 |
| 102 | 545 | 542.436351880473 | 2.56364811952699 |
| 103 | 601 | 602.243509146296 | -1.24350914629565 |
| 104 | 604 | 612.4278443106 | -8.42784431060045 |
| 105 | 586 | 595.76513711945 | -9.76513711945017 |
| 106 | 564 | 575.800839572587 | -11.8008395725869 |
| 107 | 549 | 551.792750259015 | -2.79275025901529 |
| 108 | 551 | 550.682609940456 | 0.317390059544437 |
| 109 | 556 | 547.350519139623 | 8.64948086037668 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 110 | 547.139995750804 | 532.051174650631 | 562.228816850977 |
| 111 | 533.845816089555 | 512.421395963215 | 555.270236215894 |
| 112 | 524.853108568665 | 497.47066666358 | 552.23555047375 |
| 113 | 511.02146025158 | 478.087713288261 | 543.955207214899 |
| 114 | 513.811713301297 | 474.370722208903 | 553.252704393691 |
| 115 | 564.409407826634 | 514.420059079258 | 614.398756574011 |
| 116 | 571.17868902913 | 513.591608022507 | 628.765770035754 |
| 117 | 560.379162514143 | 496.73682117116 | 624.021503857127 |
| 118 | 548.654016850196 | 479.086521267024 | 618.221512433369 |
| 119 | 537.255806517171 | 461.765465835619 | 612.746147198723 |
| 120 | 540.084730482562 | 456.593869518811 | 623.575591446313 |
| 121 | 538.488961909698 | 448.073347236991 | 628.904576582405 |
