| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.044152333311505 |
| beta | 0.0411060207296206 |
| gamma | 0.391529447629937 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 246 | 244.883547008547 | 1.116452991453 |
| 14 | 294 | 292.923212281872 | 1.07678771812766 |
| 15 | 242 | 241.296413864973 | 0.703586135027251 |
| 16 | 181 | 180.571081351333 | 0.428918648667434 |
| 17 | 107 | 106.792733416538 | 0.207266583462172 |
| 18 | 56 | 54.4633085328766 | 1.53669146712342 |
| 19 | 49 | 45.4870365088749 | 3.51296349112512 |
| 20 | 47 | 50.8960639439936 | -3.89606394399364 |
| 21 | 47 | 50.6375611263622 | -3.6375611263622 |
| 22 | 71 | 69.4672032377159 | 1.53279676228412 |
| 23 | 151 | 152.236243961055 | -1.23624396105518 |
| 24 | 244 | 206.005781383217 | 37.9942186167833 |
| 25 | 280 | 250.035882823291 | 29.964117176709 |
| 26 | 230 | 299.458150625152 | -69.4581506251521 |
| 27 | 185 | 244.573141734302 | -59.5731417343023 |
| 28 | 148 | 180.970000477811 | -32.970000477811 |
| 29 | 98 | 105.459785803668 | -7.45978580366759 |
| 30 | 61 | 53.1011799282845 | 7.89882007171549 |
| 31 | 46 | 44.9687724817613 | 1.03122751823871 |
| 32 | 45 | 47.3143050519288 | -2.31430505192876 |
| 33 | 55 | 47.0441066848163 | 7.95589331518374 |
| 34 | 48 | 68.1633592013522 | -20.1633592013522 |
| 35 | 115 | 148.741558965934 | -33.7415589659343 |
| 36 | 185 | 215.502010561893 | -30.5020105618933 |
| 37 | 276 | 253.122715647067 | 22.8772843529332 |
| 38 | 220 | 264.631259509793 | -44.6312595097933 |
| 39 | 181 | 214.194080521376 | -33.1940805213758 |
| 40 | 151 | 161.411812963677 | -10.4118129636765 |
| 41 | 83 | 96.1856933704142 | -13.1856933704142 |
| 42 | 55 | 49.0528181330027 | 5.94718186699728 |
| 43 | 49 | 37.9912537783983 | 11.0087462216017 |
| 44 | 42 | 39.2705425826432 | 2.72945741735676 |
| 45 | 46 | 42.8210029664505 | 3.17899703354955 |
| 46 | 74 | 52.9516751024821 | 21.0483248975179 |
| 47 | 103 | 130.088473867801 | -27.0884738678009 |
| 48 | 200 | 198.187672814239 | 1.81232718576103 |
| 49 | 237 | 257.103202118011 | -20.1032021180114 |
| 50 | 247 | 241.262753503622 | 5.73724649637796 |
| 51 | 215 | 197.234418407279 | 17.7655815927213 |
| 52 | 182 | 155.225398126516 | 26.7746018734844 |
| 53 | 80 | 90.6676984903715 | -10.6676984903715 |
| 54 | 46 | 50.8755607483303 | -4.87556074833033 |
| 55 | 65 | 41.2799840266381 | 23.7200159733619 |
| 56 | 40 | 40.0946976874145 | -0.0946976874144525 |
| 57 | 44 | 43.756230685086 | 0.243769314914047 |
| 58 | 63 | 60.506969356018 | 2.493030643982 |
| 59 | 85 | 118.838197336475 | -33.838197336475 |
| 60 | 185 | 197.471563380981 | -12.4715633809811 |
| 61 | 247 | 247.545053542196 | -0.545053542196484 |
| 62 | 231 | 242.264584377804 | -11.2645843778045 |
| 63 | 167 | 201.982083238645 | -34.9820832386445 |
| 64 | 117 | 160.914945841015 | -43.9149458410148 |
| 65 | 79 | 78.9945979627448 | 0.00540203725520882 |
| 66 | 45 | 41.6316982283861 | 3.3683017716139 |
| 67 | 40 | 42.907081211191 | -2.90708121119104 |
| 68 | 38 | 31.3906355424253 | 6.60936445757473 |
| 69 | 41 | 35.2439719791569 | 5.75602802084309 |
| 70 | 69 | 52.8589979950646 | 16.1410020049354 |
| 71 | 152 | 98.0000349693975 | 53.9999650306025 |
| 72 | 232 | 188.471292490536 | 43.5287075094638 |
| 73 | 282 | 245.545697586105 | 36.4543024138949 |
| 74 | 255 | 238.019248666794 | 16.9807513332064 |
| 75 | 161 | 190.291128402667 | -29.2911284026666 |
| 76 | 107 | 146.325911371468 | -39.3259113714676 |
| 77 | 53 | 81.2470783623455 | -28.2470783623455 |
| 78 | 40 | 44.0460666540904 | -4.04606665409037 |
| 79 | 39 | 42.7828772869157 | -3.78287728691575 |
| 80 | 34 | 34.9249365638231 | -0.92493656382311 |
| 81 | 35 | 38.2483019397091 | -3.24830193970914 |
| 82 | 56 | 59.4579629762814 | -3.45796297628142 |
| 83 | 97 | 117.972221019114 | -20.9722210191138 |
| 84 | 210 | 201.148550675381 | 8.85144932461907 |
| 85 | 260 | 253.915452883487 | 6.08454711651328 |
| 86 | 257 | 237.576280996922 | 19.4237190030777 |
| 87 | 210 | 172.459556102403 | 37.5404438975968 |
| 88 | 125 | 127.631397992206 | -2.63139799220554 |
| 89 | 80 | 68.3272129034233 | 11.6727870965767 |
| 90 | 42 | 42.0265846457346 | -0.0265846457346299 |
| 91 | 35 | 41.1274374064466 | -6.12743740644662 |
| 92 | 31 | 34.3193625547326 | -3.31936255473261 |
| 93 | 32 | 36.7469814055377 | -4.74698140553774 |
| 94 | 50 | 57.8887632378853 | -7.88876323788527 |
| 95 | 92 | 109.721524723874 | -17.7215247238743 |
| 96 | 189 | 204.27727868341 | -15.2772786834099 |
| 97 | 256 | 254.974170213544 | 1.02582978645646 |
| 98 | 250 | 243.425369494056 | 6.5746305059435 |
| 99 | 198 | 184.519695972449 | 13.4803040275514 |
| 100 | 136 | 123.549868290368 | 12.4501317096322 |
| 101 | 73 | 70.2468265568393 | 2.75317344316068 |
| 102 | 39 | 39.1398103776277 | -0.139810377627725 |
| 103 | 32 | 35.9180960853078 | -3.91809608530775 |
| 104 | 30 | 30.2281101496311 | -0.228110149631149 |
| 105 | 31 | 32.2331901068143 | -1.23319010681435 |
| 106 | 45 | 52.3359537423806 | -7.33595374238064 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 107 | 100.495917071854 | 60.0372900899317 | 140.954544053776 |
| 108 | 196.763653080239 | 156.262304337266 | 237.265001823212 |
| 109 | 254.278910081635 | 213.731450004584 | 294.826370158686 |
| 110 | 244.802073633741 | 204.204991384778 | 285.399155882703 |
| 111 | 188.219238894046 | 147.56890385172 | 228.869573936372 |
| 112 | 126.272951773046 | 85.5656151095006 | 166.980288436592 |
| 113 | 68.7728593173574 | 28.0046556721995 | 109.541062962515 |
| 114 | 36.4382754088359 | -4.39477534005123 | 77.2713261577231 |
| 115 | 31.785661519383 | -9.11632934939942 | 72.6876523881653 |
| 116 | 27.633651891176 | -13.3414830436318 | 68.6087868259838 |
| 117 | 29.2571074306278 | -11.7954843866349 | 70.3096992478905 |
| 118 | 47.1170914937562 | 5.9826232613414 | 88.251559726171 |
