Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 1 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 218 | 222 | -4 |
4 | 175 | 174 | 1 |
5 | 100 | 132 | -32 |
6 | 77 | 25 | 52 |
7 | 43 | 54 | -11 |
8 | 47 | 9 | 38 |
9 | 49 | 51 | -2 |
10 | 69 | 51 | 18 |
11 | 152 | 89 | 63 |
12 | 205 | 235 | -30 |
13 | 246 | 258 | -12 |
14 | 294 | 287 | 7 |
15 | 242 | 342 | -100 |
16 | 181 | 190 | -9 |
17 | 107 | 120 | -13 |
18 | 56 | 33 | 23 |
19 | 49 | 5 | 44 |
20 | 47 | 42 | 5 |
21 | 47 | 45 | 2 |
22 | 71 | 47 | 24 |
23 | 151 | 95 | 56 |
24 | 244 | 231 | 13 |
25 | 280 | 337 | -57 |
26 | 230 | 316 | -86 |
27 | 185 | 180 | 5 |
28 | 148 | 140 | 8 |
29 | 98 | 111 | -13 |
30 | 61 | 48 | 13 |
31 | 46 | 24 | 22 |
32 | 45 | 31 | 14 |
33 | 55 | 44 | 11 |
34 | 48 | 65 | -17 |
35 | 115 | 41 | 74 |
36 | 185 | 182 | 3 |
37 | 276 | 255 | 21 |
38 | 220 | 367 | -147 |
39 | 181 | 164 | 17 |
40 | 151 | 142 | 9 |
41 | 83 | 121 | -38 |
42 | 55 | 15 | 40 |
43 | 49 | 27 | 22 |
44 | 42 | 43 | -1 |
45 | 46 | 35 | 11 |
46 | 74 | 50 | 24 |
47 | 103 | 102 | 1 |
48 | 200 | 132 | 68 |
49 | 237 | 297 | -60 |
50 | 247 | 274 | -27 |
51 | 215 | 257 | -42 |
52 | 182 | 183 | -1 |
53 | 80 | 149 | -69 |
54 | 46 | -22 | 68 |
55 | 65 | 12 | 53 |
56 | 40 | 84 | -44 |
57 | 44 | 15 | 29 |
58 | 63 | 48 | 15 |
59 | 85 | 82 | 3 |
60 | 185 | 107 | 78 |
61 | 247 | 285 | -38 |
62 | 231 | 309 | -78 |
63 | 167 | 215 | -48 |
64 | 117 | 103 | 14 |
65 | 79 | 67 | 12 |
66 | 45 | 41 | 4 |
67 | 40 | 11 | 29 |
68 | 38 | 35 | 3 |
69 | 41 | 36 | 5 |
70 | 69 | 44 | 25 |
71 | 152 | 97 | 55 |
72 | 232 | 235 | -3 |
73 | 282 | 312 | -30 |
74 | 255 | 332 | -77 |
75 | 161 | 228 | -67 |
76 | 107 | 67 | 40 |
77 | 53 | 53 | 0 |
78 | 40 | -1 | 41 |
79 | 39 | 27 | 12 |
80 | 34 | 38 | -4 |
81 | 35 | 29 | 6 |
82 | 56 | 36 | 20 |
83 | 97 | 77 | 20 |
84 | 210 | 138 | 72 |
85 | 260 | 323 | -63 |
86 | 257 | 310 | -53 |
87 | 210 | 254 | -44 |
88 | 125 | 163 | -38 |
89 | 80 | 40 | 40 |
90 | 42 | 35 | 7 |
91 | 35 | 4 | 31 |
92 | 31 | 28 | 3 |
93 | 32 | 27 | 5 |
94 | 50 | 33 | 17 |
95 | 92 | 68 | 24 |
96 | 189 | 134 | 55 |
97 | 256 | 286 | -30 |
98 | 250 | 323 | -73 |
99 | 198 | 244 | -46 |
100 | 136 | 146 | -10 |
101 | 73 | 74 | -1 |
102 | 39 | 10 | 29 |
103 | 32 | 5 | 27 |
104 | 30 | 25 | 5 |
105 | 31 | 28 | 3 |
106 | 45 | 32 | 13 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
107 | 59 | -19.6858341499532 | 137.685834149953 |
108 | 73 | -102.94687402557 | 248.94687402557 |
109 | 87 | -207.415432581641 | 381.415432581641 |
110 | 101 | -329.980063200397 | 531.980063200397 |
111 | 115 | -468.549764178743 | 698.549764178743 |
112 | 129 | -621.615017918326 | 879.615017918326 |
113 | 143 | -788.023345261734 | 1074.02334526173 |
114 | 157 | -966.858505844167 | 1280.85850584417 |
115 | 171 | -1157.36976829649 | 1499.36976829649 |
116 | 185 | -1358.92755364734 | 1728.92755364734 |
117 | 199 | -1570.99407086922 | 1968.99407086922 |
118 | 213 | -1793.10301886968 | 2219.10301886968 |