| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 262 | 302 | -40 |
| 3 | 218 | 262.002644278454 | -44.0026442784541 |
| 4 | 175 | 218.002908881105 | -43.0029088811047 |
| 5 | 100 | 175.002842791635 | -75.0028427916354 |
| 6 | 77 | 100.00495821003 | -23.0049582100297 |
| 7 | 43 | 77.0015207878833 | -34.0015207878833 |
| 8 | 47 | 43.0022477372206 | 3.99775226277937 |
| 9 | 49 | 46.9997357207457 | 2.00026427925433 |
| 10 | 69 | 48.9998677686066 | 20.0001322313934 |
| 11 | 152 | 68.9986778520315 | 83.0013221479685 |
| 12 | 205 | 151.994513034805 | 53.0054869651954 |
| 13 | 246 | 204.996495968322 | 41.0035040316782 |
| 14 | 294 | 245.997289382944 | 48.0027106170563 |
| 15 | 242 | 293.996826686664 | -51.9968266866645 |
| 16 | 181 | 242.003437352212 | -61.0034373522122 |
| 17 | 107 | 181.004032751875 | -74.0040327518754 |
| 18 | 56 | 107.004892181733 | -51.004892181733 |
| 19 | 49 | 56.0033717784362 | -7.00337177843622 |
| 20 | 47 | 49.0004629716275 | -2.00046297162749 |
| 21 | 47 | 47.0001322445284 | -0.000132244528352032 |
| 22 | 71 | 47.0000000087423 | 23.9999999912577 |
| 23 | 151 | 70.9984134329281 | 80.0015865670719 |
| 24 | 244 | 150.994711338209 | 93.0052886617913 |
| 25 | 280 | 243.993851702977 | 36.0061482970231 |
| 26 | 230 | 279.997619742946 | -49.9976197429461 |
| 27 | 185 | 230.003305190716 | -45.003305190716 |
| 28 | 148 | 185.002975031757 | -37.002975031757 |
| 29 | 98 | 148.00244615424 | -50.0024461542403 |
| 30 | 61 | 98.0033055097754 | -37.0033055097754 |
| 31 | 46 | 61.0024461760872 | -15.0024461760872 |
| 32 | 45 | 46.0009917661295 | -1.00099176612954 |
| 33 | 55 | 45.000066172524 | 9.99993382747601 |
| 34 | 48 | 54.9993389347609 | -6.99933893476094 |
| 35 | 115 | 48.0004627050284 | 66.9995372949716 |
| 36 | 185 | 114.995570864177 | 70.0044291358225 |
| 37 | 276 | 184.995372219909 | 91.0046277800913 |
| 38 | 220 | 275.993983960588 | -55.9939839605885 |
| 39 | 181 | 220.003701592134 | -39.0037015921336 |
| 40 | 151 | 181.002578416194 | -30.0025784161937 |
| 41 | 83 | 151.001983379292 | -68.0019833792918 |
| 42 | 55 | 83.0044954044871 | -28.0044954044871 |
| 43 | 49 | 55.0018512920954 | -6.00185129209538 |
| 44 | 42 | 49.0003967641514 | -7.0003967641514 |
| 45 | 46 | 42.0004627749583 | 3.99953722504166 |
| 46 | 74 | 45.9997356027472 | 28.0002643972528 |
| 47 | 103 | 73.9981489876036 | 29.0018510123964 |
| 48 | 200 | 102.998082775756 | 97.001917224244 |
| 49 | 237 | 199.993587498007 | 37.006412501993 |
| 50 | 247 | 236.997553618519 | 10.002446381481 |
| 51 | 215 | 246.999338768664 | -31.9993387686636 |
| 52 | 182 | 215.002115379051 | -33.0021153790513 |
| 53 | 80 | 182.002181669566 | -102.002181669566 |
| 54 | 46 | 80.0067430542814 | -34.0067430542814 |
| 55 | 65 | 46.0022480824488 | 18.9977519175512 |
| 56 | 40 | 64.9987441163482 | -24.9987441163482 |
| 57 | 44 | 40.0016525910111 | 3.99834740898886 |
| 58 | 63 | 43.9997356814024 | 19.0002643185976 |
| 59 | 85 | 62.998743950261 | 22.001256049739 |
| 60 | 185 | 84.9985455638166 | 100.001454436183 |
| 61 | 247 | 184.993389207716 | 62.0066107922835 |
| 62 | 231 | 246.995900931377 | -15.9959009313768 |
| 63 | 167 | 231.001057440405 | -64.0010574404047 |
| 64 | 117 | 167.004230915431 | -50.0042309154307 |
| 65 | 79 | 117.003305627761 | -38.0033056277606 |
| 66 | 45 | 79.0025122830564 | -34.0025122830564 |
| 67 | 40 | 45.0022478027654 | -5.00224780276536 |
| 68 | 38 | 40.0003306834022 | -2.00033068340217 |
| 69 | 41 | 38.0001322357832 | 2.99986776421682 |
| 70 | 69 | 40.9998016878576 | 28.0001983121424 |
| 71 | 152 | 68.9981489919723 | 83.0018510080277 |
| 72 | 232 | 151.994512999843 | 80.0054870001567 |
| 73 | 282 | 231.994711080363 | 50.0052889196371 |
| 74 | 255 | 281.996694302298 | -26.996694302298 |
| 75 | 161 | 255.001784669427 | -94.0017846694269 |
| 76 | 107 | 161.006214172346 | -54.0062141723461 |
| 77 | 53 | 107.003570186713 | -54.003570186713 |
| 78 | 40 | 53.0035700119272 | -13.0035700119272 |
| 79 | 39 | 40.0008596265002 | -1.00085962650022 |
| 80 | 34 | 39.0000661637886 | -5.00006616378865 |
| 81 | 35 | 34.0003305391806 | 0.999669460819355 |
| 82 | 56 | 34.9999339148896 | 21.0000660851104 |
| 83 | 97 | 55.9986117494429 | 41.0013882505571 |
| 84 | 210 | 96.9972895228115 | 113.002710477188 |
| 85 | 260 | 209.992529734186 | 50.0074702658142 |
| 86 | 257 | 259.996694158096 | -2.99669415809581 |
| 87 | 210 | 257.000198102345 | -47.0001981023449 |
| 88 | 125 | 210.003107040279 | -85.0031070402795 |
| 89 | 80 | 125.005619297112 | -45.0056192971119 |
| 90 | 42 | 80.0029751847355 | -38.0029751847355 |
| 91 | 35 | 42.0025122612118 | -7.00251226121179 |
| 92 | 31 | 35.0004629148074 | -4.00046291480742 |
| 93 | 32 | 31.0002644584473 | 0.999735541552703 |
| 94 | 50 | 31.9999339105212 | 18.0000660894788 |
| 95 | 92 | 49.9988100703267 | 42.0011899296733 |
| 96 | 189 | 91.9972234289606 | 97.0027765710394 |
| 97 | 256 | 188.993587441198 | 67.0064125588018 |
| 98 | 250 | 255.995570409675 | -5.99557040967466 |
| 99 | 198 | 250.000396348941 | -52.0003963489414 |
| 100 | 136 | 198.003437588192 | -62.0034375881917 |
| 101 | 73 | 136.004098858852 | -63.0040988588523 |
| 102 | 39 | 73.0041650095283 | -34.0041650095283 |
| 103 | 32 | 39.0022479120221 | -7.00224791202209 |
| 104 | 30 | 32.0004628973321 | -2.0004628973321 |
| 105 | 31 | 30.0001322445234 | 0.999867755476561 |
| 106 | 45 | 30.9999339017809 | 14.0000660982191 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 107 | 44.9990744981715 | -48.8355303783435 | 138.833679374687 |
| 108 | 44.9990744981715 | -87.6987101419704 | 177.696859138313 |
| 109 | 44.9990744981715 | -117.52006598833 | 207.518214984673 |
| 110 | 44.9990744981715 | -142.660830650853 | 232.658979647196 |
| 111 | 44.9990744981715 | -164.810384241445 | 254.808533237788 |
| 112 | 44.9990744981715 | -184.835165667824 | 274.833314664167 |
| 113 | 44.9990744981715 | -203.249887088278 | 293.248036084621 |
| 114 | 44.9990744981715 | -220.3899152976 | 310.388064293943 |
| 115 | 44.9990744981715 | -236.4881985372 | 326.486347533543 |
| 116 | 44.9990744981715 | -251.714345921195 | 341.712494917538 |
| 117 | 44.9990744981715 | -266.196399172365 | 356.194548168708 |
| 118 | 44.9990744981715 | -280.033834311228 | 370.031983307571 |
