Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 65 | 64.6244568236865 | 0.205271619750615 | 0.212837861356865 | 0.109119641138924 |
3 | 55 | 56.0105228701721 | 0.103577696069508 | 0.00721029735808343 | -0.432157883190664 |
4 | 56 | 55.8951430789631 | 0.102291426916773 | 0.13049605341325 | -0.0107879697659396 |
5 | 91 | 86.8100095011737 | 0.26683531255867 | 0.57950973428802 | 1.51832320992921 |
6 | 80 | 80.688083266788 | 0.233159746611875 | 0.0605634640002911 | -0.314812663698123 |
7 | 135 | 128.445414366123 | 0.482198787829917 | 0.985576069954975 | 2.34177880099216 |
8 | 129 | 128.712756617355 | 0.481078804456029 | 0.312420939093299 | -0.0105870623734985 |
9 | 129 | 128.597214854133 | 0.477984936668707 | 0.47269923325334 | -0.0293981994260454 |
10 | 130 | 129.467905729655 | 0.480010867456615 | 0.486075460578379 | 0.0193502077999385 |
11 | 109 | 111.027180636816 | 0.382901655562387 | 0.190032091979335 | -0.932291848754337 |
12 | 126 | 123.897355162008 | 0.446664359189132 | 0.639328065081118 | 0.615286243840574 |
13 | 73 | 96.4799394750428 | 1.80904561691824 | -20.1928431563405 | -1.67017072403873 |
14 | 68 | 69.5421941007248 | 1.07406588342515 | 0.896410735720657 | -1.19853607373444 |
15 | 74 | 72.5128423289957 | 1.08532651790296 | 1.26850737250707 | 0.0930528806386038 |
16 | 95 | 91.6752633258146 | 1.13545009421972 | 1.22258546948501 | 0.889801531348371 |
17 | 105 | 102.199496933943 | 1.15914882414536 | 1.70837049461051 | 0.462160752547482 |
18 | 108 | 107.016771844955 | 1.16834068914032 | 0.557701458339246 | 0.180069821202527 |
19 | 127 | 123.264177718952 | 1.20615684601438 | 1.98177177934984 | 0.742258998675457 |
20 | 108 | 109.18195478247 | 1.16790724183928 | 0.596444835583205 | -0.75256064067552 |
21 | 126 | 123.024845215412 | 1.19954609007657 | 1.500753787591 | 0.623916740616233 |
22 | 154 | 149.220217381398 | 1.2619190828365 | 1.87217360739662 | 1.23040480719133 |
23 | 127 | 129.246219601197 | 1.20827545813372 | 0.22402765828903 | -1.04536333663303 |
24 | 103 | 104.743980583165 | 1.15241775206818 | 1.24701584392345 | -1.26531560500798 |
25 | 95 | 107.117612794174 | 1.12465513665238 | -12.2604698929145 | 0.0664021343894195 |
26 | 59 | 63.7674262102473 | 0.40030801509065 | -0.486926569884086 | -1.98304530867309 |
27 | 68 | 66.9698911900165 | 0.412752332240636 | 0.708866650080375 | 0.137491205077427 |
28 | 82 | 79.8516689426216 | 0.436228050161567 | 0.707952561322423 | 0.61358953182785 |
29 | 92 | 89.7655963257717 | 0.452217953953705 | 1.1393348705832 | 0.466395859288387 |
30 | 124 | 120.214585160631 | 0.503073049476489 | 0.319599917940621 | 1.47612392603156 |
31 | 139 | 135.508264781256 | 0.52817772964496 | 1.78284428153786 | 0.727835582420924 |
32 | 167 | 163.35083241566 | 0.574479419134244 | 0.493293139453199 | 1.34412086689162 |
33 | 138 | 141.252516063343 | 0.536082264724569 | -0.63292561634512 | -1.1157115549719 |
34 | 146 | 144.05182951857 | 0.539937757791414 | 1.68667919098916 | 0.111373211996395 |
35 | 128 | 130.161342081257 | 0.51456709175623 | -0.49405386166747 | -0.710164794317556 |
36 | 145 | 142.534584849662 | 0.527763214734306 | 1.09509163158509 | 0.583356959137528 |
37 | 91 | 106.890978969246 | 1.05111813986662 | -11.6849769013783 | -1.8986298485671 |
38 | 66 | 70.8599975931921 | 0.615721395828865 | -1.09201796324212 | -1.7042658252378 |
39 | 89 | 85.7007216809233 | 0.66980541409893 | 1.67782466313536 | 0.697826261100165 |
40 | 98 | 95.8104852112596 | 0.683928860524092 | 1.10533757155811 | 0.464474467015639 |
41 | 113 | 110.304787259374 | 0.701779246008562 | 1.10875612172897 | 0.679512386607997 |
42 | 130 | 127.405650730348 | 0.723296609297231 | 0.710578968628076 | 0.80687424044125 |
43 | 127 | 126.329110249809 | 0.720922032128564 | 0.877635572052185 | -0.0885560307348267 |
44 | 157 | 151.980068077179 | 0.753800548715076 | 2.15624220316356 | 1.22661288624791 |
45 | 157 | 157.163537262427 | 0.759646398239442 | -0.672369090470054 | 0.217949856761477 |
46 | 136 | 136.953487567925 | 0.731538577977564 | 1.4552811296153 | -1.0317794605526 |
47 | 145 | 144.552357520695 | 0.741127133693811 | -0.3412162600269 | 0.337922152567806 |
48 | 112 | 114.624222895948 | 0.725366197366641 | 0.899267413927599 | -1.50839400710255 |
49 | 71 | 85.5297437788949 | 1.03400838308367 | -11.0797751880364 | -1.53641388657701 |
50 | 95 | 94.8436414002839 | 1.10870488366984 | -0.710288826004482 | 0.387244912772322 |
51 | 95 | 93.4760930871792 | 1.10013645001994 | 1.80474565066924 | -0.121440728533384 |
52 | 105 | 102.518540645966 | 1.11052176131546 | 1.57367279851997 | 0.390758504929991 |
53 | 116 | 113.5214618357 | 1.12108759806908 | 1.3475777905007 | 0.486700210729011 |
54 | 104 | 104.409217758394 | 1.10990367340945 | 0.760669112951423 | -0.503464387901396 |
55 | 128 | 124.443598705756 | 1.13082492433097 | 1.3929701266354 | 0.931051418985322 |
56 | 181 | 171.722616680499 | 1.18189191969556 | 4.00177093945514 | 2.2704094941315 |
57 | 130 | 136.013929292785 | 1.14092910432979 | -1.79663926049611 | -1.81495852236437 |
58 | 124 | 124.203353428513 | 1.12614242240732 | 1.27724950176419 | -0.637214968882016 |
59 | 123 | 122.376534106578 | 1.12266342459316 | 0.961057383468839 | -0.145296708302002 |
60 | 152 | 146.343196311663 | 1.1253755525427 | 3.04490606678402 | 1.12345460436783 |