| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.832451078408921 |
| beta | 0.123601317530782 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 549 | 579.52110042735 | -30.5211004273502 |
| 14 | 532 | 534.661481619557 | -2.66148161955732 |
| 15 | 526 | 523.71978723231 | 2.28021276769005 |
| 16 | 511 | 507.209760766493 | 3.79023923350655 |
| 17 | 499 | 494.596742945568 | 4.40325705443206 |
| 18 | 555 | 550.447092616077 | 4.55290738392284 |
| 19 | 565 | 565.057143505938 | -0.0571435059380292 |
| 20 | 542 | 555.740339615207 | -13.7403396152068 |
| 21 | 527 | 507.910839322217 | 19.0891606777833 |
| 22 | 510 | 499.957748161362 | 10.0422518386375 |
| 23 | 514 | 499.590149193437 | 14.4098508065633 |
| 24 | 517 | 517.466021787127 | -0.466021787126692 |
| 25 | 508 | 501.255064131828 | 6.74493586817175 |
| 26 | 493 | 497.064169448346 | -4.06416944834587 |
| 27 | 490 | 490.617179139347 | -0.617179139347456 |
| 28 | 469 | 476.48449787727 | -7.48449787726992 |
| 29 | 478 | 457.964721564575 | 20.0352784354246 |
| 30 | 528 | 531.837646869435 | -3.83764686943482 |
| 31 | 534 | 542.811850265911 | -8.81185026591106 |
| 32 | 518 | 527.135074311701 | -9.13507431170058 |
| 33 | 506 | 492.334122417679 | 13.6658775823209 |
| 34 | 502 | 481.486943820191 | 20.5130561798092 |
| 35 | 516 | 494.781256483891 | 21.218743516109 |
| 36 | 528 | 520.747036444205 | 7.2529635557953 |
| 37 | 533 | 517.878440565623 | 15.1215594343772 |
| 38 | 536 | 525.420005160503 | 10.579994839497 |
| 39 | 537 | 539.818256695877 | -2.81825669587727 |
| 40 | 524 | 530.553352798839 | -6.55335279883934 |
| 41 | 536 | 525.366104079888 | 10.6338959201117 |
| 42 | 587 | 594.392113986212 | -7.3921139862116 |
| 43 | 597 | 608.187407079672 | -11.1874070796721 |
| 44 | 581 | 596.84794663946 | -15.8479466394601 |
| 45 | 564 | 565.957436828137 | -1.95743682813713 |
| 46 | 558 | 547.322640832762 | 10.6773591672379 |
| 47 | 575 | 555.606229175588 | 19.3937708244118 |
| 48 | 580 | 580.583857209497 | -0.583857209496841 |
| 49 | 575 | 574.574519563255 | 0.425480436745488 |
| 50 | 563 | 569.673926777702 | -6.67392677770158 |
| 51 | 552 | 566.241522372872 | -14.2415223728719 |
| 52 | 537 | 544.443386408737 | -7.44338640873718 |
| 53 | 545 | 538.905244945389 | 6.09475505461103 |
| 54 | 601 | 598.175673819573 | 2.82432618042731 |
| 55 | 604 | 617.934216952287 | -13.9342169522874 |
| 56 | 586 | 601.339139065175 | -15.339139065175 |
| 57 | 564 | 571.063714632433 | -7.06371463243318 |
| 58 | 549 | 547.633931249675 | 1.36606875032521 |
| 59 | 551 | 546.007486090972 | 4.99251390902839 |
| 60 | 556 | 550.548502268675 | 5.45149773132539 |
| 61 | 548 | 545.252365854897 | 2.74763414510335 |
| 62 | 540 | 536.854235630262 | 3.14576436973834 |
| 63 | 531 | 537.09755060786 | -6.09755060786017 |
| 64 | 521 | 520.825092400394 | 0.174907599606399 |
| 65 | 519 | 522.288170219755 | -3.28817021975476 |
| 66 | 572 | 570.625448799804 | 1.37455120019638 |
| 67 | 581 | 583.645711837744 | -2.64571183774399 |
| 68 | 563 | 574.650328935693 | -11.6503289356925 |
| 69 | 548 | 547.649706063013 | 0.350293936986986 |
| 70 | 539 | 531.384474915497 | 7.61552508450291 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 71 | 535.791374462522 | 515.305296271165 | 556.277452653879 |
| 72 | 535.96295037135 | 507.912229174932 | 564.013671567767 |
| 73 | 524.824444660863 | 489.621761037357 | 560.02712828437 |
| 74 | 513.071805305497 | 470.813984425554 | 555.329626185441 |
| 75 | 507.690099326263 | 458.342226675057 | 557.037971977469 |
| 76 | 496.714268230404 | 440.17594171451 | 553.252594746298 |
| 77 | 496.60328339839 | 432.738433774654 | 560.468133022125 |
| 78 | 547.94913766691 | 476.601337463823 | 619.296937869998 |
| 79 | 558.500233845936 | 479.501264256605 | 637.499203435267 |
| 80 | 549.819455953692 | 462.994396630833 | 636.644515276551 |
| 81 | 535.347472837705 | 440.517857809319 | 630.177087866091 |
| 82 | 520.791497756774 | 417.777332817655 | 623.805662695893 |
