| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 590 | 590 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 580 | 583.283865255502 | -2.9752149420575 | -3.2838652555019 | -0.888883210196761 |
| 3 | 574 | 574.59315734654 | -5.80851754828858 | -0.59315734653974 | -0.525786612507606 |
| 4 | 573 | 571.273116902043 | -4.44897147375991 | 1.72688309795728 | 0.226176933831935 |
| 5 | 573 | 571.623060001106 | -1.84391845547631 | 1.37693999889388 | 0.421510588493358 |
| 6 | 620 | 605.795390898595 | 17.5296828294619 | 14.2046091014051 | 3.19282578103008 |
| 7 | 626 | 629.153342758548 | 20.6752953885225 | -3.15334275854843 | 0.522069078189157 |
| 8 | 620 | 629.965514716297 | 9.92344769740635 | -9.96551471629725 | -1.78431483101233 |
| 9 | 588 | 602.040894545007 | -10.5759351441779 | -14.0408945450073 | -3.40139455420698 |
| 10 | 566 | 570.228873222773 | -22.0754964766754 | -4.22887322277343 | -1.9081612249883 |
| 11 | 557 | 552.547532170963 | -19.6966098125037 | 4.45246782903712 | 0.394738448428917 |
| 12 | 561 | 553.320759973915 | -8.61589120067738 | 7.67924002608527 | 1.83866397556424 |
| 13 | 549 | 546.31875576528 | -7.75653833099919 | 2.68124423472048 | 0.149474022932546 |
| 14 | 532 | 532.834199972709 | -10.7952270630508 | -0.83419997270873 | -0.498120659844999 |
| 15 | 526 | 523.386800625702 | -10.1100426052606 | 2.61319937429851 | 0.112822778331973 |
| 16 | 511 | 512.648916237073 | -10.4345519738008 | -1.64891623707322 | -0.0548549324446512 |
| 17 | 499 | 509.979312712935 | -6.35806331578892 | -10.9793127129351 | 0.675608409796844 |
| 18 | 555 | 533.508507434709 | 9.25464986968828 | 21.4914925652909 | 2.57081722651233 |
| 19 | 565 | 558.225152357246 | 17.311045850928 | 6.77484764275428 | 1.33404669754017 |
| 20 | 542 | 550.518287578003 | 4.24647268900382 | -8.51828757800251 | -2.16823512210897 |
| 21 | 527 | 537.686696744475 | -4.68900396036749 | -10.6866967444747 | -1.48272449404469 |
| 22 | 510 | 520.484708577501 | -11.2375471357242 | -10.4847085775012 | -1.08661954520033 |
| 23 | 514 | 513.865138664441 | -8.82430201274722 | 0.134861335559445 | 0.400506558360965 |
| 24 | 517 | 508.304616881595 | -7.12210485959475 | 8.69538311840484 | 0.28338598181224 |
| 25 | 508 | 501.687272980594 | -6.85824626303759 | 6.31272701940556 | 0.04419121030494 |
| 26 | 493 | 492.593863579878 | -8.02240798507279 | 0.40613642012234 | -0.192530690425326 |
| 27 | 490 | 484.913465120857 | -7.84695208661093 | 5.08653487914338 | 0.0289903758229804 |
| 28 | 469 | 476.12991027015 | -8.32793889734134 | -7.12991027014965 | -0.0804268108971488 |
| 29 | 478 | 492.376360292948 | 4.4070641897294 | -14.3763602929475 | 2.12098603734532 |
| 30 | 528 | 509.561212965181 | 11.0299996011733 | 18.4387870348186 | 1.09516323492062 |
| 31 | 534 | 519.126840147896 | 10.2732072580394 | 14.8731598521041 | -0.125216106363323 |
| 32 | 518 | 522.229416818185 | 6.56726070506355 | -4.22941681818469 | -0.614568534847593 |
| 33 | 506 | 516.942893769889 | 0.433065417893171 | -10.9428937698892 | -1.0179067725843 |
| 34 | 502 | 514.817937559795 | -0.890979322125457 | -12.8179375597953 | -0.219735021776374 |
| 35 | 516 | 516.113504287233 | 0.239852217410683 | -0.113504287233148 | 0.187813428821908 |
| 36 | 528 | 518.146226943398 | 1.1671887053512 | 9.85377305660229 | 0.15433208535223 |
| 37 | 533 | 522.837547458959 | 2.99273808629801 | 10.1624525410407 | 0.303745119249397 |
| 38 | 536 | 531.596188921867 | 5.97097538783978 | 4.40381107813323 | 0.493016824981042 |
| 39 | 537 | 534.444769569382 | 4.3692999116915 | 2.55523043061844 | -0.265196202061861 |
| 40 | 524 | 540.868870678239 | 5.42271411911422 | -16.8688706782386 | 0.175432347463346 |
| 41 | 536 | 553.383027010338 | 9.07566253382764 | -17.3830270103384 | 0.608276123054868 |
| 42 | 587 | 566.979421661622 | 11.4079345635513 | 20.0205783383779 | 0.386665470633031 |
| 43 | 597 | 578.859404594582 | 11.6510136761302 | 18.140595405418 | 0.0402416333376524 |
| 44 | 581 | 583.388057801933 | 7.98767881965705 | -2.38805780193285 | -0.607154863189412 |
| 45 | 564 | 578.707893574547 | 1.47108239911033 | -14.707893574547 | -1.08118054091213 |
| 46 | 558 | 573.326821273653 | -2.05445435837996 | -15.3268212736526 | -0.585292883313566 |
| 47 | 575 | 574.00477587745 | -0.648451757142419 | 0.995224122549569 | 0.233620621622018 |
| 48 | 580 | 572.354998623477 | -1.16413402070116 | 7.6450013765231 | -0.0857470486819306 |
| 49 | 575 | 567.661867026551 | -2.98274243829626 | 7.33813297344923 | -0.301995026758463 |
| 50 | 563 | 559.043614379996 | -5.88025235516809 | 3.95638562000403 | -0.479881464049787 |
| 51 | 552 | 551.075091163591 | -6.94971065329523 | 0.924908836409229 | -0.177227829260922 |
| 52 | 537 | 553.336679533017 | -2.23506840951835 | -16.3366795330166 | 0.783980873955845 |
| 53 | 545 | 561.45229204517 | 3.07773492748901 | -16.4522920451703 | 0.884043996639682 |
| 54 | 601 | 576.860935246781 | 9.41702520935234 | 24.1390647532195 | 1.05214564893283 |
| 55 | 604 | 584.378439124899 | 8.44152756198894 | 19.6215608751011 | -0.161607284549462 |
| 56 | 586 | 585.859548502455 | 4.87254537252376 | 0.140451497544846 | -0.591406821930943 |
| 57 | 564 | 580.529469156378 | -0.355570040660422 | -16.5294691563785 | -0.867265434159036 |
| 58 | 549 | 569.635123689856 | -5.75649833237995 | -20.6351236898564 | -0.896845136193524 |
| 59 | 551 | 553.289968303978 | -11.1864477931511 | -2.28996830397836 | -0.90237256212942 |
| 60 | 556 | 544.141545805495 | -10.1402674118424 | 11.8584541945053 | 0.173854118757816 |
| 61 | 548 | 536.385720401466 | -8.91600274313338 | 11.6142795985336 | 0.203150990936535 |
| 62 | 540 | 532.738101465533 | -6.21608288501837 | 7.26189853446697 | 0.447300748702044 |
| 63 | 531 | 532.145980628222 | -3.34146890058393 | -1.14598062822232 | 0.476566178043485 |
| 64 | 521 | 538.938649422686 | 1.83626458418406 | -17.9386494226857 | 0.860409114716508 |
| 65 | 519 | 541.761101709955 | 2.34107813259782 | -22.7611017099554 | 0.0839528196284191 |
| 66 | 572 | 546.660489905537 | 3.6524626692752 | 25.3395100944632 | 0.217739346922561 |
| 67 | 581 | 556.394881735438 | 6.7681243366046 | 24.6051182645618 | 0.516422862745321 |
| 68 | 563 | 560.257354740393 | 5.28190973459651 | 2.74264525960711 | -0.246285585789814 |
| 69 | 548 | 560.974079816011 | 2.94920073474937 | -12.974079816011 | -0.386926733195902 |
| 70 | 539 | 557.462466543419 | -0.352195877765391 | -18.4624665434194 | -0.548248666619341 |
