| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| time_in_rfc[t] = + 1248.53034598561 + 672.488712428693logins[t] + 830.712096659984blogged_computations[t] + 388.222182540594feedback_messages_p120[t] + 0.478510546568482totsize[t] + 40.6794347690064`tothyperlinks `[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 1248.53034598561 | 6206.284475 | 0.2012 | 0.840886 | 0.420443 |
| logins | 672.488712428693 | 122.972879 | 5.4686 | 0 | 0 |
| blogged_computations | 830.712096659984 | 236.298562 | 3.5155 | 0.000609 | 0.000305 |
| feedback_messages_p120 | 388.222182540594 | 139.069814 | 2.7916 | 0.006056 | 0.003028 |
| totsize | 0.478510546568482 | 0.176185 | 2.716 | 0.007529 | 0.003765 |
| `tothyperlinks ` | 40.6794347690064 | 186.118758 | 0.2186 | 0.827338 | 0.413669 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.824503590284114 |
| R-squared | 0.679806170391395 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.667200114107591 |
| F-TEST (value) | 53.9269502758631 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 5 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 127 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 25407.0625363131 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 81980890993.964 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 101645 | 84322.6990404516 | 17322.3009595484 |
| 2 | 101011 | 78791.4905732521 | 22219.5094267479 |
| 3 | 7176 | 13361.7589650403 | -6185.75896504035 |
| 4 | 96560 | 114915.78544986 | -18355.7854498603 |
| 5 | 175824 | 172432.674353298 | 3391.32564670222 |
| 6 | 341570 | 284122.602607929 | 57447.3973920712 |
| 7 | 103597 | 84058.6112310399 | 19538.3887689601 |
| 8 | 112611 | 110105.258852955 | 2505.74114704515 |
| 9 | 85574 | 82064.207030233 | 3509.79296976699 |
| 10 | 220801 | 142448.822360087 | 78352.1776399125 |
| 11 | 92661 | 109861.316687392 | -17200.3166873916 |
| 12 | 133328 | 128755.959809121 | 4572.04019087944 |
| 13 | 61361 | 92624.606321174 | -31263.606321174 |
| 14 | 125930 | 125797.657551394 | 132.342448605549 |
| 15 | 82316 | 71127.0389945797 | 11188.9610054203 |
| 16 | 102010 | 99503.1416974402 | 2506.85830255985 |
| 17 | 101523 | 144628.65626046 | -43105.6562604602 |
| 18 | 41566 | 41807.4499261587 | -241.449926158721 |
| 19 | 99923 | 130178.511886996 | -30255.5118869957 |
| 20 | 22648 | 57057.5677119433 | -34409.5677119433 |
| 21 | 46698 | 61444.2523722188 | -14746.2523722188 |
| 22 | 131698 | 152281.946222244 | -20583.9462222442 |
| 23 | 91735 | 58159.2686064477 | 33575.7313935523 |
| 24 | 79863 | 84102.5263544303 | -4239.52635443029 |
| 25 | 108043 | 113238.470109147 | -5195.47010914746 |
| 26 | 98866 | 62548.8989673862 | 36317.1010326138 |
| 27 | 120445 | 159219.424974963 | -38774.4249749632 |
| 28 | 116048 | 123787.234716031 | -7739.23471603067 |
| 29 | 250047 | 155560.555144928 | 94486.4448550719 |
| 30 | 136084 | 74384.4384585523 | 61699.5615414477 |
| 31 | 92499 | 75982.1069161042 | 16516.8930838959 |
| 32 | 135781 | 89763.7140607131 | 46017.2859392869 |
| 33 | 74408 | 96755.1773702223 | -22347.1773702223 |
| 34 | 81240 | 135549.705637233 | -54309.705637233 |
| 35 | 133368 | 96315.4767093358 | 37052.5232906642 |
| 36 | 98146 | 73072.0281447886 | 25073.9718552114 |
| 37 | 79619 | 89161.6575232667 | -9542.65752326672 |
| 38 | 59194 | 73132.5851466869 | -13938.5851466869 |
| 39 | 139942 | 142786.331908639 | -2844.33190863945 |
| 40 | 118612 | 111789.764556581 | 6822.23544341931 |
| 41 | 72880 | 73627.7324178382 | -747.732417838225 |
| 42 | 65475 | 79964.7629968673 | -14489.7629968673 |
| 43 | 99643 | 112291.342360896 | -12648.3423608962 |
| 44 | 71965 | 98621.1676430895 | -26656.1676430895 |
| 45 | 77272 | 91916.5884706132 | -14644.5884706132 |
| 46 | 49289 | 49691.9237860207 | -402.923786020678 |
| 47 | 135131 | 118444.268206503 | 16686.7317934975 |
| 48 | 108446 | 108320.66469348 | 125.335306519663 |
| 49 | 89746 | 83464.0223938886 | 6281.97760611136 |
| 50 | 44296 | 50594.4148310829 | -6298.41483108295 |
| 51 | 77648 | 90157.5363579831 | -12509.5363579831 |
| 52 | 181528 | 108889.527010939 | 72638.4729890609 |
| 53 | 134019 | 100179.056267773 | 33839.9437322272 |
| 54 | 124064 | 109846.623770052 | 14217.3762299483 |
| 55 | 92630 | 70014.3660603887 | 22615.6339396113 |
| 56 | 121848 | 94706.8996864803 | 27141.1003135197 |
| 57 | 52915 | 58845.2906825932 | -5930.29068259325 |
| 58 | 81872 | 96067.1545194257 | -14195.1545194257 |
| 59 | 58981 | 70162.6440176841 | -11181.6440176841 |
| 60 | 53515 | 62517.6979286979 | -9002.6979286979 |
| 61 | 60812 | 80948.9850027153 | -20136.9850027153 |
| 62 | 56375 | 65916.6270869558 | -9541.62708695577 |
| 63 | 65490 | 64228.7950686103 | 1261.20493138971 |
| 64 | 80949 | 52764.2754719405 | 28184.7245280595 |
| 65 | 76302 | 88831.5625545956 | -12529.5625545955 |
| 66 | 104011 | 121689.68013617 | -17678.6801361696 |
| 67 | 98104 | 116499.287931797 | -18395.2879317975 |
| 68 | 67989 | 74055.8732626364 | -6066.87326263643 |
| 69 | 30989 | 32965.8517065111 | -1976.8517065111 |
| 70 | 135458 | 114783.895450933 | 20674.1045490667 |
| 71 | 73504 | 63209.1769001193 | 10294.8230998807 |
| 72 | 63123 | 103814.131262682 | -40691.1312626819 |
| 73 | 61254 | 81975.5414478835 | -20721.5414478835 |
| 74 | 74914 | 113918.067500213 | -39004.0675002134 |
| 75 | 31774 | 36944.6825056867 | -5170.68250568669 |
| 76 | 81437 | 88208.148858384 | -6771.148858384 |
| 77 | 87186 | 106144.819778836 | -18958.8197788361 |
| 78 | 50090 | 52900.7404889773 | -2810.74048897726 |
| 79 | 65745 | 95051.8456785353 | -29306.8456785353 |
| 80 | 56653 | 96583.7288851541 | -39930.7288851541 |
| 81 | 158399 | 85687.4110791753 | 72711.5889208247 |
| 82 | 46455 | 44443.0043128922 | 2011.99568710781 |
| 83 | 73624 | 68511.4081406136 | 5112.59185938643 |
| 84 | 38395 | 61301.7313620183 | -22906.7313620183 |
| 85 | 91899 | 71699.5220253286 | 20199.4779746714 |
| 86 | 139526 | 182416.206237499 | -42890.2062374994 |
| 87 | 52164 | 88803.4217335279 | -36639.4217335279 |
| 88 | 51567 | 71055.8739931602 | -19488.8739931602 |
| 89 | 70551 | 75621.4603341437 | -5070.46033414368 |
| 90 | 84856 | 82998.2672853236 | 1857.73271467641 |
| 91 | 102538 | 122592.21505584 | -20054.2150558396 |
| 92 | 86678 | 72252.0958864446 | 14425.9041135554 |
| 93 | 85709 | 80575.4862839393 | 5133.51371606068 |
| 94 | 34662 | 54432.9481301554 | -19770.9481301554 |
| 95 | 150580 | 126505.35839569 | 24074.6416043101 |
| 96 | 99611 | 108631.797070394 | -9020.79707039419 |
| 97 | 19349 | 21878.4741049314 | -2529.47410493136 |
| 98 | 99373 | 92257.4540349205 | 7115.54596507945 |
| 99 | 86230 | 79179.579952789 | 7050.42004721104 |
| 100 | 30837 | 23662.3738844968 | 7174.6261155032 |
| 101 | 31706 | 54381.8946184123 | -22675.8946184123 |
| 102 | 89806 | 81651.0914150675 | 8154.90858493254 |
| 103 | 62088 | 59732.5436398087 | 2355.45636019129 |
| 104 | 40151 | 48269.2380528193 | -8118.2380528193 |
| 105 | 27634 | 25875.5672767899 | 1758.43272321007 |
| 106 | 76990 | 93450.9676076165 | -16460.9676076165 |
| 107 | 37460 | 26279.0452303457 | 11180.9547696543 |
| 108 | 54157 | 66866.9063858282 | -12709.9063858282 |
| 109 | 49862 | 79908.0098917125 | -30046.0098917125 |
| 110 | 84337 | 77302.4066538242 | 7034.59334617583 |
| 111 | 64175 | 95433.4684444998 | -31258.4684444998 |
| 112 | 59382 | 82087.5163577767 | -22705.5163577767 |
| 113 | 119308 | 83362.0052917947 | 35945.9947082053 |
| 114 | 76702 | 105247.388955481 | -28545.3889554812 |
| 115 | 103425 | 92556.9945368771 | 10868.0054631229 |
| 116 | 70344 | 75059.1463303295 | -4715.14633032947 |
| 117 | 43410 | 22376.8843711484 | 21033.1156288516 |
| 118 | 104838 | 108380.416662774 | -3542.41666277415 |
| 119 | 62215 | 59459.0029121365 | 2755.99708786349 |
| 120 | 69304 | 81953.4846686183 | -12649.4846686183 |
| 121 | 53117 | 46763.2771465489 | 6353.72285345105 |
| 122 | 19764 | 22337.5916034441 | -2573.59160344412 |
| 123 | 86680 | 84225.6292494315 | 2454.37075056851 |
| 124 | 84105 | 64258.0375314137 | 19846.9624685863 |
| 125 | 77945 | 77363.7899767457 | 581.210023254288 |
| 126 | 89113 | 95832.2564951321 | -6719.2564951321 |
| 127 | 91005 | 70500.8335502281 | 20504.1664497719 |
| 128 | 40248 | 24220.6898200416 | 16027.3101799584 |
| 129 | 64187 | 58808.8991781215 | 5378.10082187849 |
| 130 | 50857 | 60850.0955777721 | -9993.09557777206 |
| 131 | 56613 | 44562.3207501881 | 12050.6792498119 |
| 132 | 62792 | 85552.1443206292 | -22760.1443206292 |
| 133 | 72535 | 50374.5839010015 | 22160.4160989985 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 9 | 0.0464921627899661 | 0.0929843255799322 | 0.953507837210034 |
| 10 | 0.599007041759808 | 0.801985916480384 | 0.400992958240192 |
| 11 | 0.469300733978999 | 0.938601467957998 | 0.530699266021001 |
| 12 | 0.378294318945023 | 0.756588637890046 | 0.621705681054977 |
| 13 | 0.278210894094816 | 0.556421788189631 | 0.721789105905184 |
| 14 | 0.589845664424834 | 0.820308671150333 | 0.410154335575166 |
| 15 | 0.487913735400477 | 0.975827470800954 | 0.512086264599523 |
| 16 | 0.491258324612593 | 0.982516649225185 | 0.508741675387407 |
| 17 | 0.910622650056228 | 0.178754699887544 | 0.0893773499437718 |
| 18 | 0.872977382687171 | 0.254045234625658 | 0.127022617312829 |
| 19 | 0.848588592021654 | 0.302822815956692 | 0.151411407978346 |
| 20 | 0.893477204704604 | 0.213045590590791 | 0.106522795295396 |
| 21 | 0.859918938924333 | 0.280162122151334 | 0.140081061075667 |
| 22 | 0.860487478584772 | 0.279025042830457 | 0.139512521415228 |
| 23 | 0.883739184950381 | 0.232521630099238 | 0.116260815049619 |
| 24 | 0.84787477261334 | 0.304250454773321 | 0.15212522738666 |
| 25 | 0.80331137919693 | 0.393377241606141 | 0.19668862080307 |
| 26 | 0.804152112018724 | 0.391695775962552 | 0.195847887981276 |
| 27 | 0.909557771484314 | 0.180884457031372 | 0.0904422285156862 |
| 28 | 0.889201047514497 | 0.221597904971006 | 0.110798952485503 |
| 29 | 0.996678298645213 | 0.00664340270957441 | 0.00332170135478721 |
| 30 | 0.999434383886812 | 0.00113123222637504 | 0.000565616113187522 |
| 31 | 0.999225010230992 | 0.00154997953801553 | 0.000774989769007764 |
| 32 | 0.999790724051587 | 0.000418551896825761 | 0.000209275948412881 |
| 33 | 0.999759685702762 | 0.000480628594475273 | 0.000240314297237637 |
| 34 | 0.999879838607409 | 0.000240322785181966 | 0.000120161392590983 |
| 35 | 0.999908294779653 | 0.000183410440694588 | 9.17052203472938e-05 |
| 36 | 0.99988583443415 | 0.000228331131699419 | 0.000114165565849709 |
| 37 | 0.999810932605672 | 0.000378134788656296 | 0.000189067394328148 |
| 38 | 0.999824788533522 | 0.000350422932955881 | 0.00017521146647794 |
| 39 | 0.999826348127049 | 0.000347303745902502 | 0.000173651872951251 |
| 40 | 0.999780437823861 | 0.000439124352278319 | 0.00021956217613916 |
| 41 | 0.999645105345728 | 0.00070978930854339 | 0.000354894654271695 |
| 42 | 0.999753847183102 | 0.000492305633796198 | 0.000246152816898099 |
| 43 | 0.999683740157262 | 0.000632519685476295 | 0.000316259842738147 |
| 44 | 0.999743592878891 | 0.000512814242217373 | 0.000256407121108686 |
| 45 | 0.999644447250674 | 0.000711105498651089 | 0.000355552749325545 |
| 46 | 0.999429064025257 | 0.00114187194948601 | 0.000570935974743004 |
| 47 | 0.999279328243162 | 0.00144134351367553 | 0.000720671756837767 |
| 48 | 0.998879721336839 | 0.00224055732632181 | 0.00112027866316091 |
| 49 | 0.998328427522545 | 0.00334314495490984 | 0.00167157247745492 |
| 50 | 0.997575461542257 | 0.00484907691548582 | 0.00242453845774291 |
| 51 | 0.996697441670126 | 0.0066051166597474 | 0.0033025583298737 |
| 52 | 0.999921093472129 | 0.000157813055741067 | 7.89065278705337e-05 |
| 53 | 0.999960848650711 | 7.8302698578498e-05 | 3.9151349289249e-05 |
| 54 | 0.999949294978857 | 0.000101410042286403 | 5.07050211432016e-05 |
| 55 | 0.999948993214254 | 0.000102013571492877 | 5.10067857464387e-05 |
| 56 | 0.999967171949532 | 6.56561009351202e-05 | 3.28280504675601e-05 |
| 57 | 0.999945903158375 | 0.00010819368325036 | 5.40968416251802e-05 |
| 58 | 0.999920335388003 | 0.000159329223993733 | 7.96646119968664e-05 |
| 59 | 0.999886200779032 | 0.000227598441936656 | 0.000113799220968328 |
| 60 | 0.999843161134137 | 0.000313677731725905 | 0.000156838865862953 |
| 61 | 0.999814621337652 | 0.000370757324696443 | 0.000185378662348222 |
| 62 | 0.999720632103532 | 0.000558735792936357 | 0.000279367896468179 |
| 63 | 0.99955404918953 | 0.000891901620939797 | 0.000445950810469899 |
| 64 | 0.999568101767805 | 0.000863796464389938 | 0.000431898232194969 |
| 65 | 0.99937706499104 | 0.00124587001792072 | 0.000622935008960359 |
| 66 | 0.999155540050821 | 0.00168891989835818 | 0.000844459949179089 |
| 67 | 0.99889385067791 | 0.00221229864417933 | 0.00110614932208966 |
| 68 | 0.998329250555762 | 0.00334149888847612 | 0.00167074944423806 |
| 69 | 0.997677757010342 | 0.00464448597931585 | 0.00232224298965793 |
| 70 | 0.99864029437783 | 0.00271941124433944 | 0.00135970562216972 |
| 71 | 0.998373886723241 | 0.00325222655351775 | 0.00162611327675888 |
| 72 | 0.998912238078671 | 0.00217552384265724 | 0.00108776192132862 |
| 73 | 0.998552149553061 | 0.00289570089387853 | 0.00144785044693926 |
| 74 | 0.999313513631596 | 0.00137297273680693 | 0.000686486368403463 |
| 75 | 0.999280603223091 | 0.00143879355381771 | 0.000719396776908857 |
| 76 | 0.998881856170668 | 0.00223628765866338 | 0.00111814382933169 |
| 77 | 0.99847203483622 | 0.00305593032755977 | 0.00152796516377989 |
| 78 | 0.997757529944693 | 0.00448494011061495 | 0.00224247005530748 |
| 79 | 0.997670282432674 | 0.00465943513465187 | 0.00232971756732594 |
| 80 | 0.998718340873963 | 0.00256331825207291 | 0.00128165912603646 |
| 81 | 0.999992886859211 | 1.42262815774665e-05 | 7.11314078873323e-06 |
| 82 | 0.999987442570757 | 2.51148584866666e-05 | 1.25574292433333e-05 |
| 83 | 0.999978394304231 | 4.3211391538519e-05 | 2.16056957692595e-05 |
| 84 | 0.999981770122019 | 3.64597559609406e-05 | 1.82298779804703e-05 |
| 85 | 0.999986020313473 | 2.79593730546116e-05 | 1.39796865273058e-05 |
| 86 | 0.999989651087813 | 2.06978243740918e-05 | 1.03489121870459e-05 |
| 87 | 0.999997731465316 | 4.53706936722262e-06 | 2.26853468361131e-06 |
| 88 | 0.999997651748976 | 4.69650204705967e-06 | 2.34825102352984e-06 |
| 89 | 0.999995167340142 | 9.66531971572967e-06 | 4.83265985786484e-06 |
| 90 | 0.999992014461529 | 1.59710769420141e-05 | 7.98553847100706e-06 |
| 91 | 0.999986063200066 | 2.78735998684305e-05 | 1.39367999342152e-05 |
| 92 | 0.999975206676209 | 4.9586647582818e-05 | 2.4793323791409e-05 |
| 93 | 0.999958078806646 | 8.38423867089726e-05 | 4.19211933544863e-05 |
| 94 | 0.999931256477998 | 0.000137487044004177 | 6.87435220020886e-05 |
| 95 | 0.999953994072548 | 9.20118549030498e-05 | 4.60059274515249e-05 |
| 96 | 0.999913356743214 | 0.000173286513571942 | 8.66432567859711e-05 |
| 97 | 0.999844907968132 | 0.00031018406373574 | 0.00015509203186787 |
| 98 | 0.999715231934594 | 0.000569536130812348 | 0.000284768065406174 |
| 99 | 0.99948821116707 | 0.00102357766585905 | 0.000511788832929527 |
| 100 | 0.999082245628794 | 0.00183550874241217 | 0.000917754371206084 |
| 101 | 0.999170597491862 | 0.00165880501627532 | 0.000829402508137659 |
| 102 | 0.998739040672582 | 0.0025219186548362 | 0.0012609593274181 |
| 103 | 0.997751471745474 | 0.00449705650905269 | 0.00224852825452635 |
| 104 | 0.996763459252255 | 0.00647308149548926 | 0.00323654074774463 |
| 105 | 0.995365437657926 | 0.00926912468414757 | 0.00463456234207378 |
| 106 | 0.993587281536105 | 0.0128254369277908 | 0.00641271846389539 |
| 107 | 0.989444967560925 | 0.0211100648781498 | 0.0105550324390749 |
| 108 | 0.985515468921068 | 0.0289690621578637 | 0.0144845310789319 |
| 109 | 0.990551131508057 | 0.0188977369838858 | 0.00944886849194292 |
| 110 | 0.98613754082797 | 0.027724918344061 | 0.0138624591720305 |
| 111 | 0.992224347478664 | 0.0155513050426721 | 0.00777565252133606 |
| 112 | 0.990917411512458 | 0.0181651769750846 | 0.00908258848754229 |
| 113 | 0.99813669198532 | 0.00372661602935976 | 0.00186330801467988 |
| 114 | 0.998261446795477 | 0.00347710640904693 | 0.00173855320452346 |
| 115 | 0.996977836712388 | 0.00604432657522456 | 0.00302216328761228 |
| 116 | 0.994314473087141 | 0.0113710538257186 | 0.00568552691285929 |
| 117 | 0.989766533736393 | 0.0204669325272135 | 0.0102334662636068 |
| 118 | 0.980726315146019 | 0.0385473697079615 | 0.0192736848539807 |
| 119 | 0.96124249534707 | 0.0775150093058595 | 0.0387575046529297 |
| 120 | 0.963310011358134 | 0.0733799772837316 | 0.0366899886418658 |
| 121 | 0.925198473737206 | 0.149603052525589 | 0.0748015262627945 |
| 122 | 0.924013435877852 | 0.151973128244297 | 0.0759865641221484 |
| 123 | 0.849857620699037 | 0.300284758601927 | 0.150142379300963 |
| 124 | 0.871832484636909 | 0.256335030726182 | 0.128167515363091 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 80 | 0.689655172413793 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 90 | 0.775862068965517 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 93 | 0.801724137931034 | NOK |
