Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[168])
156	3.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
157	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
158	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
159	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
160	3.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
161	3.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
162	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
163	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
164	3.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
165	3.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
166	3.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
167	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
168	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
169	1.1	1.4841	1.0973	1.8708	0.0258	0.2784	0	0.2784
170	1.2	1.4362	0.8283	2.0442	0.2231	0.8608	0	0.2988
171	0.6	1.2907	0.5234	2.0579	0.0388	0.5916	0	0.2147
172	0.6	1.4362	0.5374	2.3351	0.0341	0.9659	0	0.3605
173	0	1.2421	0.2287	2.2556	0.0081	0.8929	0	0.2444
174	-0.1	1.0965	-0.0198	2.2129	0.0178	0.9729	0	0.1884
175	-0.6	1.0965	-0.114	2.3071	0.003	0.9736	0	0.2075
176	-0.2	1.1936	-0.1044	2.4915	0.0177	0.9966	0	0.2697
177	-0.3	1.2907	-0.0892	2.6705	0.0119	0.9829	5e-04	0.3302
178	-0.1	1.4848	0.0277	2.9418	0.0165	0.9918	0.0105	0.4384
179	0.5	2.0186	0.4881	3.549	0.0259	0.9967	0.4585	0.704
180	0.9	2.2612	0.6608	3.8617	0.0478	0.9845	0.791	0.791

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
169	0.133	-0.2588	0	0.1475	0	0
170	0.216	-0.1645	0.2116	0.0558	0.1017	0.3188
171	0.3033	-0.5351	0.3195	0.477	0.2268	0.4762
172	0.3193	-0.5822	0.3852	0.6993	0.3449	0.5873
173	0.4163	-1	0.5081	1.5429	0.5845	0.7645
174	0.5194	-1.0912	0.6053	1.4317	0.7257	0.8519
175	0.5633	-1.5472	0.7399	2.8782	1.0332	1.0165
176	0.5548	-1.1676	0.7933	1.9421	1.1468	1.0709
177	0.5454	-1.2324	0.8421	2.5302	1.3005	1.1404
178	0.5007	-1.0674	0.8646	2.5115	1.4216	1.1923
179	0.3868	-0.7523	0.8544	2.3061	1.502	1.2256
180	0.3611	-0.602	0.8334	1.853	1.5313	1.2374