Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[246])
234	36.17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
235	36.56	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
236	37.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
237	38.77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
238	39.02	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
239	39.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
240	39.56	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
241	38.52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
242	37.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
243	38.58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
244	39.41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
245	39.08	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
246	38.81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
247	38.73	38.8542	37.2522	40.5251	0.4421	0.5207	0.9964	0.5207
248	38.7	38.9953	36.7574	41.3695	0.4037	0.5867	0.8575	0.5608
249	39.23	39.1257	36.3809	42.0776	0.4724	0.6113	0.5934	0.583
250	39.82	39.1557	35.9946	42.5945	0.3525	0.4831	0.5308	0.5781
251	39.97	39.2577	35.7267	43.1378	0.3595	0.3882	0.3766	0.5895
252	40.37	39.22	35.3692	43.49	0.2988	0.3653	0.438	0.5746
253	39.54	39.0955	34.9635	43.7157	0.4252	0.2944	0.5964	0.5482
254	39.21	38.9331	34.5487	43.8739	0.4563	0.4049	0.7541	0.5195
255	39.07	39.1027	34.4469	44.3878	0.4952	0.4841	0.5769	0.5432
256	39.78	39.2022	34.2971	44.8088	0.42	0.5184	0.471	0.5545
257	39.4	39.1629	34.0386	45.0585	0.4686	0.4187	0.511	0.5467
258	38.92	39.1305	33.798	45.3043	0.4734	0.4659	0.5405	0.5405

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
247	0.0219	-0.0032	0	0.0154	0	0
248	0.0311	-0.0076	0.0054	0.0872	0.0513	0.2265
249	0.0385	0.0027	0.0045	0.0109	0.0378	0.1945
250	0.0448	0.017	0.0076	0.4413	0.1387	0.3724
251	0.0504	0.0181	0.0097	0.5073	0.2124	0.4609
252	0.0555	0.0293	0.013	1.3225	0.3974	0.6304
253	0.0603	0.0114	0.0127	0.1976	0.3689	0.6074
254	0.0647	0.0071	0.012	0.0767	0.3324	0.5765
255	0.069	-8e-04	0.0108	0.0011	0.2956	0.5437
256	0.073	0.0147	0.0112	0.3338	0.2994	0.5472
257	0.0768	0.0061	0.0107	0.0562	0.2773	0.5266
258	0.0805	-0.0054	0.0103	0.0443	0.2579	0.5078