| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 539 | 539 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 548 | 546.753544793011 | 0.397143080817201 | 1.24645520698855 | 0.44712858924277 |
| 3 | 563 | 558.565725083752 | 0.781979675073757 | 4.43427491624753 | 0.972546151474376 |
| 4 | 581 | 575.275724481352 | 0.97700076219689 | 5.72427551864812 | 1.45208178248065 |
| 5 | 572 | 574.163751857567 | 0.964152395761841 | -2.16375185756673 | -0.190572921445446 |
| 6 | 519 | 533.862622401609 | 0.716027328492807 | -14.8626224016091 | -3.76175759509138 |
| 7 | 521 | 519.948536702457 | 0.620035375483989 | 1.05146329754346 | -1.33324718618088 |
| 8 | 531 | 526.077166746795 | 0.657227402100163 | 4.92283325320508 | 0.501964932542649 |
| 9 | 540 | 536.376321836725 | 0.722156789238851 | 3.62367816327494 | 0.87861498874148 |
| 10 | 548 | 545.430741720259 | 0.777776098207648 | 2.56925827974103 | 0.75927346796338 |
| 11 | 556 | 553.565287070504 | 0.826497998751057 | 2.43471292949573 | 0.670376433743256 |
| 12 | 551 | 552.135520827456 | 0.811657443755842 | -1.13552082745644 | -0.205596903746852 |
| 13 | 549 | 554.542543988939 | 0.754635232417334 | -5.54254398893936 | 0.163452904284107 |
| 14 | 564 | 563.876340375616 | 0.849791731686334 | 0.123659624383554 | 0.735049272541673 |
| 15 | 586 | 581.14274518651 | 1.18057434020651 | 4.85725481348956 | 1.40649243544317 |
| 16 | 604 | 594.26909964115 | 1.33488346008345 | 9.73090035885045 | 1.07800202005616 |
| 17 | 601 | 593.878837590513 | 1.32356562707927 | 7.12116240948682 | -0.157216460266215 |
| 18 | 545 | 568.087387476185 | 1.20649342154399 | -23.0873874761848 | -2.47089417954927 |
| 19 | 537 | 544.607102013219 | 1.10406354892649 | -7.60710201321883 | -2.24851901410684 |
| 20 | 552 | 545.171803426523 | 1.10165091581791 | 6.82819657347732 | -0.0491124850125779 |
| 21 | 563 | 555.914122995397 | 1.14807877493105 | 7.08587700460323 | 0.877882448852156 |
| 22 | 575 | 569.200727512775 | 1.20901000057965 | 5.79927248722464 | 1.1057027548664 |
| 23 | 580 | 575.593591449667 | 1.22998382307526 | 4.40640855033306 | 0.472036136421568 |
| 24 | 575 | 577.388508844972 | 1.22946321119298 | -2.38850884497238 | 0.0514594419546725 |
| 25 | 558 | 572.434936443282 | 1.2914525337359 | -14.4349364432821 | -0.580801132869835 |
| 26 | 564 | 571.616129900859 | 1.28251379474981 | -7.61612990085865 | -0.188590727061626 |
| 27 | 581 | 578.226380584235 | 1.3502141436004 | 2.77361941576454 | 0.466259678451897 |
| 28 | 597 | 584.322253260604 | 1.4041643062841 | 12.6777467393964 | 0.426006836920021 |
| 29 | 587 | 575.545372161038 | 1.33015344029104 | 11.4546278389618 | -0.925795510807402 |
| 30 | 536 | 558.505592872025 | 1.24469016960868 | -22.505592872025 | -1.67364002059097 |
| 31 | 524 | 539.173688300836 | 1.16607247572273 | -15.1736883008362 | -1.8743477724514 |
| 32 | 537 | 533.781598772294 | 1.14043046173884 | 3.21840122770591 | -0.597273585473656 |
| 33 | 536 | 532.747956487727 | 1.13133479774172 | 3.25204351227318 | -0.198007709107718 |
| 34 | 533 | 530.216492868482 | 1.11688707877469 | 2.78350713151854 | -0.333570589834449 |
| 35 | 528 | 525.671986304618 | 1.10428733679365 | 2.32801369538204 | -0.515122348507489 |
| 36 | 516 | 519.10861645389 | 1.11462576460456 | -3.10861645389017 | -0.699137809195316 |
| 37 | 502 | 516.638923674878 | 1.12700295095996 | -14.6389236748777 | -0.329568307098887 |
| 38 | 506 | 516.154624718705 | 1.12216290724492 | -10.154624718705 | -0.145051913182883 |
| 39 | 518 | 516.760880559443 | 1.1176184966484 | 1.23911944055714 | -0.0457514290532186 |
| 40 | 534 | 517.551228649648 | 1.11452366533325 | 16.4487713503524 | -0.0293613943129028 |
| 41 | 528 | 512.702354878616 | 1.07146471526712 | 15.2976451213843 | -0.541093057422549 |
| 42 | 478 | 500.038623315714 | 1.00224691894239 | -22.0386233157136 | -1.25068923188515 |
| 43 | 469 | 487.547813342304 | 0.948917776729206 | -18.5478133423045 | -1.2292188337595 |
| 44 | 490 | 485.812759025596 | 0.939009241873324 | 4.18724097440369 | -0.244500297552983 |
| 45 | 493 | 487.468661866743 | 0.941594887903305 | 5.53133813325686 | 0.065298150636658 |
| 46 | 508 | 497.967063281479 | 0.970262573467887 | 10.0329367185207 | 0.870010045415969 |
| 47 | 517 | 508.242463615091 | 0.983121724222516 | 8.75753638490874 | 0.846486943878698 |
| 48 | 514 | 514.41913411288 | 0.979368727092779 | -0.419134112880059 | 0.473270046258806 |
| 49 | 510 | 521.752625341128 | 0.973428385476263 | -11.7526253411277 | 0.579889712133723 |
| 50 | 527 | 533.053216131319 | 1.00222500759732 | -6.05321613131948 | 0.93148971140863 |
| 51 | 542 | 539.414455103701 | 1.03820234336187 | 2.58554489629865 | 0.478745358203172 |
| 52 | 565 | 544.610705508539 | 1.07100147423121 | 20.3892944914608 | 0.373488506704132 |
| 53 | 555 | 538.502705442634 | 1.02213239297337 | 16.4972945573658 | -0.650485080892467 |
| 54 | 499 | 523.619864153253 | 0.939435531161422 | -24.6198641532534 | -1.44725765977709 |
| 55 | 511 | 525.854706450712 | 0.944737336183422 | -14.8547064507118 | 0.118006334471876 |
| 56 | 526 | 523.755783173277 | 0.933934331240605 | 2.2442168267235 | -0.277293586706407 |
| 57 | 532 | 527.744437691911 | 0.943519607811861 | 4.25556230808935 | 0.278214470263291 |
| 58 | 549 | 537.660683795162 | 0.964721629734739 | 11.3393162048382 | 0.816607327382545 |
| 59 | 561 | 549.581900147544 | 0.976393260938688 | 11.4180998524557 | 0.996645286824413 |
| 60 | 557 | 557.90141859642 | 0.975582055553118 | -0.901418596420197 | 0.668558043602576 |
| 61 | 566 | 574.794395677551 | 0.979507658413409 | -8.79439567755103 | 1.44805094435192 |
| 62 | 588 | 590.870234531052 | 1.02084827909289 | -2.8702345310518 | 1.36297856660038 |
| 63 | 620 | 610.942776638484 | 1.12573019295206 | 9.05722336151548 | 1.70923227024423 |
| 64 | 626 | 607.135454879467 | 1.09259986726402 | 18.8645451205332 | -0.443785961554476 |
| 65 | 620 | 601.420887888615 | 1.04983268513042 | 18.5791121113847 | -0.616380416224196 |
| 66 | 573 | 598.864423419921 | 1.03124478473187 | -25.8644234199207 | -0.327937741616727 |
| 67 | 573 | 590.858091334267 | 0.993887526702721 | -17.8580913342672 | -0.823119831350531 |
| 68 | 574 | 578.612609521934 | 0.948575639147331 | -4.61260952193449 | -1.20608528364176 |
| 69 | 580 | 578.048628629406 | 0.94433909109211 | 1.95137137059414 | -0.13773462314534 |
| 70 | 590 | 580.92140151197 | 0.948169114275126 | 9.07859848802987 | 0.175473302652514 |
