Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[106])
104	460	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	364	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	487	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
107	452	436.3865	298.795	637.3374	0.4395	0.3108	0.7599	0.3108
108	391	429.2563	268.5992	686.0073	0.3851	0.4311	0.3297	0.3297
109	500	431.3133	255.1583	729.0816	0.3256	0.6046	0.4458	0.357
110	451	409.6295	234.6732	715.0212	0.3953	0.281	0.5476	0.3097
111	375	430.1356	239.9927	770.9261	0.3756	0.4522	0.3439	0.3718
112	372	437.1604	232.3818	822.3932	0.3701	0.6241	0.4719	0.3999
113	302	417.8042	214.3134	814.5096	0.2836	0.5895	0.5837	0.3662
114	316	422.7935	211.8592	843.7413	0.3095	0.7131	0.5935	0.3825
115	398	435.5297	210.7252	900.159	0.4371	0.6929	0.7134	0.4141
116	394	425.235	198.5383	910.7803	0.4498	0.5438	0.6704	0.4016
117	431	419.6706	191.429	920.0457	0.4823	0.54	0.5338	0.396
118	431	430.5353	191.4101	968.3952	0.4993	0.4993	0.553	0.4185

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
107	0.2349	0.0358	0	243.7801	0	0
108	0.3052	-0.0891	0.0625	1463.5464	853.6633	29.2175
109	0.3522	0.1593	0.0947	4717.8597	2141.7288	46.2788
110	0.3804	0.101	0.0963	1711.5214	2034.1769	45.1019
111	0.4042	-0.1282	0.1027	3039.9333	2235.3282	47.2793
112	0.4496	-0.1491	0.1104	4245.8747	2570.4193	50.6993
113	0.4844	-0.2772	0.1342	13410.6134	4119.0185	64.1796
114	0.508	-0.2526	0.149	11404.8446	5029.7467	70.9207
115	0.5443	-0.0862	0.142	1408.4818	4627.384	68.0249
116	0.5826	-0.0735	0.1352	975.6246	4262.208	65.2856
117	0.6083	0.027	0.1253	128.356	3886.4033	62.341
118	0.6374	0.0011	0.115	0.2159	3562.5543	59.6871