| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[66]) |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 847224 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 1073256 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 64 | 1514326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 65 | 1503734 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 66 | 1507712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2922901.1631 | 2747609.1464 | 3098193.1798 | 0.2612 | 1 | 0.5184 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2725345.177 | 2544528.3935 | 2906161.9606 | 0.2481 | 0.0641 | 0.2927 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1425729.8106 | 1244565.0244 | 1606894.5968 | 0.356 | 0 | 0.5802 | 0.1876 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1378765.786 | 1197578.7406 | 1559952.8315 | 0.4467 | 0.4448 | 0.5369 | 0.0815 |
| 71 | 946295 | 978133.5986 | 796945.128 | 1159322.0692 | 0.3653 | 0 | 0.5585 | 0 |
| 72 | 859626 | 886293.1793 | 705104.6175 | 1067481.7412 | 0.3865 | 0.2581 | 0.6493 | 0 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 67 | 0.0306 | -0.0196 | 0 | 3272201866.3637 | 0 | 0 |
| 68 | 0.0339 | 0.023 | 0.0213 | 3941682858.7034 | 3606942362.5336 | 60057.8252 |
| 69 | 0.0648 | -0.0239 | 0.0222 | 1165117023.1999 | 2793000582.7557 | 52848.8466 |
| 70 | 0.067 | -0.009 | 0.0189 | 153457242.3902 | 2133114747.6643 | 46185.6552 |
| 71 | 0.0945 | -0.0326 | 0.0216 | 1013696363.4176 | 1909231070.815 | 43694.7488 |
| 72 | 0.1043 | -0.0301 | 0.023 | 711138453.0784 | 1709548967.8589 | 41346.6923 |
