| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.187283900137838 |
| beta | 0.168376534148886 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 3054 | 2650 | 404 |
| 4 | 2414 | 3086.40251811455 | -672.402518114553 |
| 5 | 2226 | 3300.00848961329 | -1074.00848961329 |
| 6 | 2725 | 3404.53211489419 | -679.532114894193 |
| 7 | 2589 | 3561.50630300896 | -972.506303008957 |
| 8 | 3470 | 3632.94392065154 | -162.943920651538 |
| 9 | 2400 | 3850.86123020192 | -1450.86123020192 |
| 10 | 3180 | 3781.82059443688 | -601.820594436882 |
| 11 | 4009 | 3852.81366089458 | 156.186339105416 |
| 12 | 3924 | 4070.69443563995 | -146.694435639946 |
| 13 | 2072 | 4227.22462388711 | -2155.22462388711 |
| 14 | 2434 | 3939.62613041173 | -1505.62613041173 |
| 15 | 2956 | 3726.20823970702 | -770.208239707016 |
| 16 | 2828 | 3626.23436834367 | -798.234368343671 |
| 17 | 2687 | 3495.83996090432 | -808.83996090432 |
| 18 | 2629 | 3337.95316430229 | -708.953164302291 |
| 19 | 3150 | 3176.41727573605 | -26.4172757360493 |
| 20 | 4119 | 3141.87632233799 | 977.123677662007 |
| 21 | 3030 | 3326.09525980316 | -296.095259803163 |
| 22 | 3055 | 3262.52365764138 | -207.523657641382 |
| 23 | 3821 | 3208.99599514232 | 612.004004857682 |
| 24 | 4001 | 3328.25173480931 | 672.748265190694 |
| 25 | 2529 | 3480.09848422987 | -951.098484229874 |
| 26 | 2472 | 3297.83273804928 | -825.832738049278 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3112.98526307135 | 21.0147369286497 |
| 28 | 2789 | 3087.40136924078 | -298.401369240779 |
| 29 | 2758 | 2992.58612864231 | -234.586128642307 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2902.32496600765 | 90.6750339923515 |
| 31 | 3282 | 2875.83934840159 | 406.160651598408 |
| 32 | 3437 | 2921.24706460696 | 515.752935393042 |
| 33 | 2804 | 3003.44351458587 | -199.443514585868 |
| 34 | 3076 | 2945.40588957671 | 130.594110423287 |
| 35 | 3782 | 2953.29718079766 | 828.702819202344 |
| 36 | 3889 | 3118.06548576794 | 770.934514232059 |
| 37 | 2271 | 3296.32553123629 | -1025.32553123629 |
| 38 | 2452 | 3105.84215499861 | -653.84215499861 |
| 39 | 3084 | 2964.31323585651 | 119.686764143491 |
| 40 | 2522 | 2971.42805759507 | -449.428057595065 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2857.78447534318 | -88.7844753431777 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2808.88388108913 | 629.116118910874 |
| 43 | 2839 | 2914.27319236729 | -75.2731923672932 |
| 44 | 3746 | 2885.36804525677 | 860.631954743229 |
| 45 | 2632 | 3058.8822164984 | -426.882216498404 |
| 46 | 2851 | 2977.80431709628 | -126.804317096282 |
| 47 | 3871 | 2948.92750256702 | 922.072497432977 |
| 48 | 3618 | 3145.56526009106 | 472.434739908937 |
| 49 | 2389 | 3272.89096292944 | -883.890962929444 |
| 50 | 2344 | 3118.3258914991 | -774.325891499105 |
| 51 | 2678 | 2959.86283559135 | -281.862835591352 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2884.74185848962 | -392.741858489617 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2776.47021972087 | 81.5297802791338 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2759.59300072477 | -513.593000724765 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2615.06311464398 | 184.936885356024 |
| 56 | 3869 | 2607.18846931186 | 1261.81153068814 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2840.78534236243 | 166.214657637566 |
| 58 | 3023 | 2874.43600863433 | 148.563991365665 |
| 59 | 3907 | 2909.46583798428 | 997.534162015724 |
| 60 | 4209 | 3134.95056773864 | 1074.04943226136 |
| 61 | 2353 | 3408.63468037583 | -1055.63468037583 |
| 62 | 2570 | 3250.17463641246 | -680.174636412461 |
| 63 | 2903 | 3140.58344128164 | -237.583441281644 |
| 64 | 2910 | 3106.39044425968 | -196.390444259676 |
| 65 | 3782 | 3073.71921408012 | 708.280785919885 |
| 66 | 2759 | 3232.81341811139 | -473.81341811139 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3155.5790755552 | -224.579075555196 |
| 68 | 3641 | 3117.94038809114 | 523.059611908857 |
| 69 | 2794 | 3236.81666364969 | -442.816663649694 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3160.83598783359 | -90.8359878335932 |
| 71 | 3576 | 3147.91118427759 | 428.088815722407 |
| 72 | 4106 | 3245.67208613886 | 860.327913861143 |
| 73 | 2452 | 3451.51417664358 | -999.51417664358 |
| 74 | 2206 | 3277.51889284866 | -1071.51889284866 |
| 75 | 2488 | 3056.24877889481 | -568.248778894806 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2911.3137761021 | -495.313776102101 |
| 77 | 2534 | 2764.41899447271 | -230.418994472713 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2659.86865879003 | -138.868658790035 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2568.08511302777 | 524.914886972227 |
| 80 | 3903 | 2617.17031694448 | 1285.82968305552 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2849.31023994641 | 57.6897600535904 |
| 82 | 3025 | 2853.2585294931 | 171.741470506902 |
| 83 | 3812 | 2883.98260047573 | 928.017399524269 |
| 84 | 4209 | 3085.60927630401 | 1123.39072369599 |
| 85 | 2138 | 3359.25147376068 | -1221.25147376068 |
| 86 | 2419 | 3155.26873071986 | -736.268730719862 |
| 87 | 2622 | 3018.89779157402 | -396.897791574023 |
| 88 | 2912 | 2933.56970560642 | -21.5697056064187 |
| 89 | 2708 | 2917.85434369743 | -209.854343697435 |
| 90 | 2798 | 2860.25870864625 | -62.2587086462504 |
| 91 | 3254 | 2828.34208032852 | 425.657919671483 |
| 92 | 2895 | 2901.22716903697 | -6.22716903696755 |
| 93 | 3263 | 2893.03076503965 | 369.969234960346 |
| 94 | 3736 | 2966.95657983207 | 769.043420167933 |
| 95 | 4077 | 3139.87374426681 | 937.126255733188 |
| 96 | 4097 | 3373.8216575924 | 723.178342407597 |
| 97 | 2175 | 3590.5054318988 | -1415.5054318988 |
| 98 | 3138 | 3362.01131657388 | -224.011316573884 |
| 99 | 2823 | 3349.60084536145 | -526.600845361448 |
| 100 | 2498 | 3263.91428330286 | -765.914283302861 |
| 101 | 2822 | 3109.25566231045 | -287.255662310448 |
| 102 | 2738 | 3035.18371316205 | -297.183713162046 |
| 103 | 4137 | 2949.88094511912 | 1187.11905488088 |
| 104 | 3515 | 3179.99905478917 | 335.000945210832 |
| 105 | 3785 | 3261.09315300099 | 523.906846999011 |
| 106 | 3632 | 3394.0872758918 | 237.912724108196 |
| 107 | 4504 | 3481.02169478817 | 1022.97830521183 |
| 108 | 4451 | 3747.24507437876 | 703.754925621238 |
| 109 | 2550 | 3975.87541285754 | -1425.87541285754 |
| 110 | 2867 | 3760.69641527764 | -893.696415277637 |
| 111 | 3458 | 3617.00396191921 | -159.003961919207 |
| 112 | 2961 | 3605.89351166444 | -644.893511664445 |
| 113 | 3163 | 3483.44756148856 | -320.447561488562 |
| 114 | 2880 | 3411.66005226351 | -531.660052263513 |
| 115 | 3331 | 3283.5503621412 | 47.4496378587969 |
| 116 | 3062 | 3265.39488042741 | -203.394880427413 |
| 117 | 3534 | 3193.84636131344 | 340.153638686561 |
| 118 | 3622 | 3234.82220641091 | 387.17779358909 |
| 119 | 4464 | 3296.81426604105 | 1167.18573395895 |
| 120 | 5411 | 3541.69553960282 | 1869.30446039718 |
| 121 | 2564 | 3977.01939351034 | -1413.01939351034 |
| 122 | 2820 | 3753.05837859147 | -933.058378591473 |
| 123 | 3508 | 3589.56307186911 | -81.5630718691068 |
| 124 | 3088 | 3582.96709977537 | -494.967099775374 |
| 125 | 3299 | 3483.33881055188 | -184.338810551876 |
| 126 | 2939 | 3436.07321932554 | -497.073219325543 |
| 127 | 3320 | 3314.56269504137 | 5.4373049586311 |
| 128 | 3418 | 3287.33576274363 | 130.664237256368 |
| 129 | 3604 | 3287.68221274963 | 316.317787250372 |
| 130 | 3495 | 3332.77341647034 | 162.226583529658 |
| 131 | 4163 | 3354.12150638397 | 808.878493616031 |
| 132 | 4882 | 3522.08443557358 | 1359.91556442642 |
| 133 | 2211 | 3836.13160494529 | -1625.13160494529 |
| 134 | 3260 | 3539.88025052162 | -279.880250521619 |
| 135 | 2992 | 3486.74701270381 | -494.747012703811 |
| 136 | 2425 | 3377.77123147656 | -952.77123147656 |
| 137 | 2707 | 3152.96999628678 | -445.969996286777 |
| 138 | 3244 | 3009.02115971436 | 234.978840285641 |
| 139 | 3965 | 3000.01295008625 | 964.987049913746 |
| 140 | 3315 | 3158.153633236 | 156.846366764004 |
| 141 | 3333 | 3169.88860428117 | 163.111395718831 |
| 142 | 3583 | 3187.94050404307 | 395.059495956928 |
| 143 | 4021 | 3261.89043933817 | 759.109560661831 |
| 144 | 4904 | 3427.95901393738 | 1476.04098606262 |
| 145 | 2252 | 3774.84309435476 | -1522.84309435476 |
| 146 | 2952 | 3512.0628080937 | -560.062808093699 |
| 147 | 3573 | 3411.93462837159 | 161.06537162841 |
| 148 | 3048 | 3451.9412165452 | -403.9412165452 |
| 149 | 3059 | 3373.39319851326 | -314.39319851326 |
| 150 | 2731 | 3301.70194014366 | -570.701940143663 |
| 151 | 3563 | 3164.01154388735 | 398.988456112652 |
| 152 | 3092 | 3220.51033432954 | -128.510334329538 |
| 153 | 3478 | 3174.16462159485 | 303.835378405148 |
| 154 | 3478 | 3218.37150999455 | 259.628490005454 |
| 155 | 4308 | 3262.48634028796 | 1045.51365971204 |
| 156 | 5029 | 3486.75426171721 | 1542.24573828279 |
| 157 | 2075 | 3852.6856113073 | -1777.6856113073 |
| 158 | 3264 | 3540.78935105199 | -276.789351051989 |
| 159 | 3308 | 3501.25846148863 | -193.258461488628 |
| 160 | 3688 | 3471.27730902141 | 216.722690978588 |
| 161 | 3136 | 3524.91320548877 | -388.913205488775 |
| 162 | 2824 | 3452.85917695018 | -628.859176950185 |
| 163 | 3644 | 3316.03655118767 | 327.963448812333 |
| 164 | 4694 | 3368.75346809943 | 1325.24653190057 |
| 165 | 2914 | 3650.03605810257 | -736.036058102566 |
| 166 | 3686 | 3522.06328679054 | 163.936713209458 |
| 167 | 4358 | 3567.81054150566 | 790.189458494341 |
| 168 | 5587 | 3755.76285632007 | 1831.23714367993 |
| 169 | 2265 | 4196.43326583205 | -1931.43326583205 |
| 170 | 3685 | 3871.50985617222 | -186.509856172218 |
| 171 | 3754 | 3867.50106639633 | -113.501066396328 |
| 172 | 3708 | 3873.58648059623 | -165.586480596234 |
| 173 | 3210 | 3864.69549576868 | -654.695495768684 |
| 174 | 3517 | 3743.55695911401 | -226.556959114009 |
| 175 | 3905 | 3695.45758176983 | 209.542418230169 |
| 176 | 3670 | 3735.64035212239 | -65.6403521223879 |
| 177 | 4221 | 3722.21590308125 | 498.784096918746 |
| 178 | 4404 | 3830.22783064527 | 573.772169354734 |
| 179 | 5086 | 3970.37727125866 | 1115.62272874134 |
| 180 | 5725 | 4247.18688380515 | 1477.81311619485 |
| 181 | 2367 | 4638.43059977495 | -2271.43059977495 |
| 182 | 3819 | 4255.87355141508 | -436.873551415077 |
| 183 | 4067 | 4203.12303803304 | -136.123038033039 |
| 184 | 4022 | 4202.40572075302 | -180.405720753017 |
| 185 | 3937 | 4187.7060173383 | -250.7060173383 |
| 186 | 4365 | 4151.93438299463 | 213.065617005367 |
| 187 | 4290 | 4209.73856586835 | 80.2614341316521 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 4245.20164465928 | 2760.99344347663 | 5729.40984584193 |
| 189 | 4265.63304903538 | 2746.3073425675 | 5784.95875550325 |
| 190 | 4286.06445341148 | 2721.96133434394 | 5850.16757247902 |
| 191 | 4306.49585778758 | 2687.40383329426 | 5925.58788228089 |
| 192 | 4326.92726216367 | 2642.33444562633 | 6011.52007870102 |
| 193 | 4347.35866653977 | 2586.68220749832 | 6108.03512558123 |
| 194 | 4367.79007091587 | 2520.568915626 | 6215.01122620575 |
| 195 | 4388.22147529197 | 2444.26487289462 | 6332.17807768932 |
| 196 | 4408.65287966807 | 2358.14403431382 | 6459.16172502232 |
| 197 | 4429.08428404417 | 2262.64368706078 | 6595.52488102756 |
| 198 | 4449.51568842027 | 2158.23146701924 | 6740.7999098213 |
| 199 | 4469.94709279637 | 2045.380492573 | 6894.51369301973 |
