| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.117131048873749 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 2302 | 1954 | 348 |
| 3 | 3054 | 1994.76160500806 | 1059.23839499194 |
| 4 | 2414 | 2118.83130922082 | 295.168690779184 |
| 5 | 2226 | 2153.40472756647 | 72.595272433527 |
| 6 | 2725 | 2161.90788796989 | 563.092112030112 |
| 7 | 2589 | 2227.86345766451 | 361.136542335491 |
| 8 | 3470 | 2270.1637596549 | 1199.8362403451 |
| 9 | 2400 | 2410.70183696326 | -10.7018369632601 |
| 10 | 3180 | 2409.44831957488 | 770.551680425122 |
| 11 | 4009 | 2499.7038461145 | 1509.2961538855 |
| 12 | 3924 | 2676.48928768022 | 1247.51071231978 |
| 13 | 2072 | 2822.61152589548 | -750.611525895477 |
| 14 | 2434 | 2734.69161057062 | -300.691610570615 |
| 15 | 2956 | 2699.47128683694 | 256.528713163058 |
| 16 | 2828 | 2729.51876407596 | 98.4812359240359 |
| 17 | 2687 | 2741.05397453413 | -54.0539745341293 |
| 18 | 2629 | 2734.72257580115 | -105.722575801152 |
| 19 | 3150 | 2722.33917960793 | 427.660820392071 |
| 20 | 4119 | 2772.43154006266 | 1346.56845993734 |
| 21 | 3030 | 2930.15651615543 | 99.8434838445714 |
| 22 | 3055 | 2941.85128814135 | 113.148711858647 |
| 23 | 3821 | 2955.10451544007 | 865.895484559931 |
| 24 | 4001 | 3056.52776176162 | 944.472238238383 |
| 25 | 2529 | 3167.15478565862 | -638.154785658616 |
| 26 | 2472 | 3092.40704627062 | -620.40704627062 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3019.73811821228 | 114.261881787722 |
| 28 | 2789 | 3033.12173227236 | -244.121732272362 |
| 29 | 2758 | 3004.52749771842 | -246.527497718424 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2975.65147333444 | 17.3485266655557 |
| 31 | 3282 | 2977.68352445919 | 304.316475540805 |
| 32 | 3437 | 3013.32843242885 | 423.671567571148 |
| 33 | 2804 | 3062.95352751645 | -258.953527516446 |
| 34 | 3076 | 3032.62202922889 | 43.3779707711128 |
| 35 | 3782 | 3037.70293644332 | 744.297063556678 |
| 36 | 3889 | 3124.88323217137 | 764.116767828633 |
| 37 | 2271 | 3214.38503064915 | -943.385030649154 |
| 38 | 2452 | 3103.88535251742 | -651.885352517425 |
| 39 | 3084 | 3027.52933743163 | 56.4706625683748 |
| 40 | 2522 | 3034.14380536885 | -512.143805368854 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2974.15586427181 | -205.155864271807 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2950.12574270705 | 487.87425729295 |
| 43 | 2839 | 3007.27096618227 | -168.270966182274 |
| 44 | 3746 | 2987.56121141835 | 758.438788581655 |
| 45 | 2632 | 3076.39794223145 | -444.39794223145 |
| 46 | 2851 | 3024.34514514054 | -173.345145140545 |
| 47 | 3871 | 3004.04104647306 | 866.958953526939 |
| 48 | 3618 | 3105.58885803016 | 512.411141969842 |
| 49 | 2389 | 3165.60811254368 | -776.608112543681 |
| 50 | 2344 | 3074.64318975758 | -730.643189757578 |
| 51 | 2678 | 2989.06218658881 | -311.062186588811 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2952.6271464087 | -460.627146408702 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2898.67340561013 | -40.6734056101286 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2893.90928694975 | -647.909286949747 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2818.01899259428 | -18.0189925942805 |
| 56 | 3869 | 2815.90840909206 | 1053.09159090794 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2939.25813169524 | 67.7418683047649 |
| 58 | 3023 | 2947.19280778244 | 75.8071922175604 |
| 59 | 3907 | 2956.07218371906 | 950.927816280944 |
| 60 | 4209 | 3067.45535624327 | 1141.54464375673 |
| 61 | 2353 | 3201.1656777027 | -848.165677702702 |
| 62 | 2570 | 3101.81914225467 | -531.819142254671 |
| 63 | 2903 | 3039.52660831124 | -136.526608311244 |
| 64 | 2910 | 3023.53510348057 | -113.535103480573 |
| 65 | 3782 | 3010.2366177259 | 771.763382274096 |
| 66 | 2759 | 3100.63407217402 | -341.63407217402 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3060.61811496927 | -129.618114969267 |
| 68 | 3641 | 3045.43580920988 | 595.564190790121 |
| 69 | 2794 | 3115.19486754877 | -321.194867548772 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3077.57297581992 | -7.57297581991907 |
| 71 | 3576 | 3076.68594521904 | 499.314054780963 |
| 72 | 4106 | 3135.17112417293 | 970.828875827065 |
| 73 | 2452 | 3248.88532867548 | -796.885328675481 |
| 74 | 2206 | 3155.54531429562 | -949.54531429562 |
| 75 | 2488 | 3044.32407567902 | -556.324075679021 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2979.16125318102 | -563.161253181019 |
| 77 | 2534 | 2913.19758491087 | -379.197584910871 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2868.78177405987 | -347.781774059868 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2828.04573008506 | 264.954269914937 |
| 80 | 3903 | 2859.08010162378 | 1043.91989837622 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2981.35553426076 | -74.3555342607619 |
| 82 | 3025 | 2972.64619254323 | 52.3538074567691 |
| 83 | 3812 | 2978.77844892318 | 833.221551076823 |
| 84 | 4209 | 3076.37456314502 | 1132.62543685498 |
| 85 | 2138 | 3209.04016854493 | -1071.04016854493 |
| 86 | 2419 | 3083.58811021734 | -664.588110217344 |
| 87 | 2622 | 3005.74420779856 | -383.744207798564 |
| 88 | 2912 | 2960.79584623989 | -48.7958462398929 |
| 89 | 2708 | 2955.08033758913 | -247.080337589132 |
| 90 | 2798 | 2926.13955849124 | -128.139558491237 |
| 91 | 3254 | 2911.13043760294 | 342.869562397061 |
| 92 | 2895 | 2951.29110907339 | -56.2911090733901 |
| 93 | 3263 | 2944.69767242536 | 318.302327574643 |
| 94 | 3736 | 2981.98075791313 | 754.019242086869 |
| 95 | 4077 | 3070.29982260975 | 1006.70017739025 |
| 96 | 4097 | 3188.21567028886 | 908.784329711137 |
| 97 | 2175 | 3294.66253202795 | -1119.66253202795 |
| 98 | 3138 | 3163.51528526688 | -25.5152852668834 |
| 99 | 2823 | 3160.52665314126 | -337.52665314126 |
| 100 | 2498 | 3120.99180223598 | -622.991802235978 |
| 101 | 2822 | 3048.02011900033 | -226.020119000331 |
| 102 | 2738 | 3021.54614539525 | -283.546145395253 |
| 103 | 4137 | 2988.334087981 | 1148.665912019 |
| 104 | 3515 | 3122.87853106131 | 392.121468938695 |
| 105 | 3785 | 3168.80813000401 | 616.191869995991 |
| 106 | 3632 | 3240.98333004412 | 391.016669955884 |
| 107 | 4504 | 3286.78352272317 | 1217.21647727683 |
| 108 | 4451 | 3429.35736541301 | 1021.64263458699 |
| 109 | 2550 | 3549.02343877633 | -999.023438776328 |
| 110 | 2867 | 3432.006775543 | -565.006775542997 |
| 111 | 3458 | 3365.82693930287 | 92.1730606971287 |
| 112 | 2961 | 3376.62326658023 | -415.623266580229 |
| 113 | 3163 | 3327.94087742935 | -164.940877429353 |
| 114 | 2880 | 3308.6211794539 | -428.621179453897 |
| 115 | 3331 | 3258.41633113496 | 72.5836688650415 |
| 116 | 3062 | 3266.91813240023 | -204.918132400226 |
| 117 | 3534 | 3242.91585661894 | 291.084143381062 |
| 118 | 3622 | 3277.01084764368 | 344.989152356322 |
| 119 | 4464 | 3317.41978890924 | 1146.58021109076 |
| 120 | 5411 | 3451.71993165218 | 1959.28006834782 |
| 121 | 2564 | 3681.21246109519 | -1117.21246109519 |
| 122 | 2820 | 3550.35219371229 | -730.352193712292 |
| 123 | 3508 | 3464.80527521553 | 43.1947247844723 |
| 124 | 3088 | 3469.86471863535 | -381.864718635346 |
| 125 | 3299 | 3425.13650361371 | -126.136503613709 |
| 126 | 2939 | 3410.36200264417 | -471.362002644168 |
| 127 | 3320 | 3355.15087687523 | -35.150876875226 |
| 128 | 3418 | 3351.033617798 | 66.9663822020011 |
| 129 | 3604 | 3358.8774603846 | 245.1225396154 |
| 130 | 3495 | 3387.58892055235 | 107.411079447651 |
| 131 | 4163 | 3400.17009294871 | 762.829907051287 |
| 132 | 4882 | 3489.52116007389 | 1392.47883992611 |
| 133 | 2211 | 3652.62366712894 | -1441.62366712894 |
| 134 | 3260 | 3483.76477491691 | -223.764774916908 |
| 135 | 2992 | 3457.55497212989 | -465.554972129892 |
| 136 | 2425 | 3403.02402993593 | -978.024029935929 |
| 137 | 2707 | 3288.4670494858 | -581.467049485803 |
| 138 | 3244 | 3220.35920409401 | 23.6407959059929 |
| 139 | 3965 | 3223.12827531469 | 741.871724685314 |
| 140 | 3315 | 3310.02448855685 | 4.97551144314639 |
| 141 | 3333 | 3310.60727543087 | 22.3927245691275 |
| 142 | 3583 | 3313.2301587468 | 269.769841253205 |
| 143 | 4021 | 3344.82858320729 | 676.171416792712 |
| 144 | 4904 | 3424.02925047467 | 1479.97074952533 |
| 145 | 2252 | 3597.37977666904 | -1345.37977666904 |
| 146 | 2952 | 3439.79403229426 | -487.794032294263 |
| 147 | 3573 | 3382.65820565728 | 190.341794342719 |
| 148 | 3048 | 3404.95313967315 | -356.953139673155 |
| 149 | 3059 | 3363.14284402446 | -304.142844024461 |
| 150 | 2731 | 3327.51827369643 | -596.518273696431 |
| 151 | 3563 | 3257.64746262601 | 305.35253737399 |
| 152 | 3092 | 3293.41372560489 | -201.413725604886 |
| 153 | 3478 | 3269.82192466722 | 208.178075332783 |
| 154 | 3478 | 3294.20604098346 | 183.793959016536 |
| 155 | 4308 | 3315.73402017973 | 992.26597982027 |
| 156 | 5029 | 3431.95917515782 | 1597.04082484218 |
| 157 | 2075 | 3619.02224206578 | -1544.02224206578 |
| 158 | 3264 | 3438.16929736822 | -174.169297368216 |
| 159 | 3308 | 3417.76866488587 | -109.768664885873 |
| 160 | 3688 | 3404.91134603432 | 283.08865396568 |
| 161 | 3136 | 3438.06981699758 | -302.069816997578 |
| 162 | 2824 | 3402.68806249955 | -578.68806249955 |
| 163 | 3644 | 3334.90572276826 | 309.094277231739 |
| 164 | 4694 | 3371.11025966129 | 1322.88974033871 |
| 165 | 2914 | 3526.06172249148 | -612.061722491482 |
| 166 | 3686 | 3454.37029096058 | 231.629709039419 |
| 167 | 4358 | 3481.50132173069 | 876.49867826931 |
| 168 | 5587 | 3584.16653125283 | 2002.83346874717 |
| 169 | 2265 | 3818.76051616663 | -1553.76051616663 |
| 170 | 3685 | 3636.76691720942 | 48.2330827905816 |
| 171 | 3754 | 3642.41650878709 | 111.583491212907 |
| 172 | 3708 | 3655.48640014986 | 52.5135998501441 |
| 173 | 3210 | 3661.63737318044 | -451.63737318044 |
| 174 | 3517 | 3608.73661394923 | -91.7366139492301 |
| 175 | 3905 | 3597.99140813723 | 307.008591862769 |
| 176 | 3670 | 3633.95164651537 | 36.0483534846303 |
| 177 | 4221 | 3638.1740279692 | 582.825972030804 |
| 178 | 4404 | 3706.44104538403 | 697.558954615974 |
| 179 | 5086 | 3788.14685738947 | 1297.85314261053 |
| 180 | 5725 | 3940.16575726753 | 1784.83424273247 |
| 181 | 2367 | 4149.22526418457 | -1782.22526418457 |
| 182 | 3819 | 3940.47134966134 | -121.471349661338 |
| 183 | 4067 | 3926.2432830674 | 140.756716932605 |
| 184 | 4022 | 3942.73026495774 | 79.2697350422636 |
| 185 | 3937 | 3952.01521216718 | -15.0152121671808 |
| 186 | 4365 | 3950.25646461698 | 414.743535383023 |
| 187 | 4290 | 3998.83580993 | 291.164190070003 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 4032.94017690737 | 2676.48909034627 | 5389.39126346848 |
| 189 | 4032.94017690737 | 2667.21574962428 | 5398.66460419046 |
| 190 | 4032.94017690737 | 2658.00495213398 | 5407.87540168076 |
| 191 | 4032.94017690737 | 2648.85544923801 | 5417.02490457673 |
| 192 | 4032.94017690737 | 2639.76603330131 | 5426.11432051343 |
| 193 | 4032.94017690737 | 2630.73553583054 | 5435.1448179842 |
| 194 | 4032.94017690737 | 2621.76282572067 | 5444.11752809408 |
| 195 | 4032.94017690737 | 2612.84680760124 | 5453.0335462135 |
| 196 | 4032.94017690737 | 2603.98642027556 | 5461.89393353918 |
| 197 | 4032.94017690737 | 2595.18063524643 | 5470.69971856831 |
| 198 | 4032.94017690737 | 2586.42845532265 | 5479.45189849209 |
| 199 | 4032.94017690737 | 2577.72891330098 | 5488.15144051377 |
