Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 62 | 47.9110970294859 | 0.457727744350292 | 3.27289921665179 | 1.53740429817903 |
3 | 66 | 52.2181740254204 | 1.23550591453837 | 3.11036218634978 | 1.66337970171935 |
4 | 59 | 54.8085370931774 | 1.4591698785972 | 0.885416754515537 | 0.524668797214267 |
5 | 58 | 56.4532934205753 | 1.48495530273988 | 1.09750359194589 | 0.0712006553256786 |
6 | 61 | 58.3025428335853 | 1.52861644512606 | 1.78773114361487 | 0.143268072165915 |
7 | 41 | 55.5097495961271 | 1.0734073799599 | -3.20477313178717 | -1.76638936537319 |
8 | 27 | 49.8659877992446 | 0.442403029886409 | -4.36790838932408 | -2.86761633273592 |
9 | 58 | 51.134896007643 | 0.512454327726307 | 4.46943156500248 | 0.368676590817397 |
10 | 70 | 55.1496963415017 | 0.782862183598353 | 4.19172738617064 | 1.62955537366549 |
11 | 49 | 54.8312554608697 | 0.704779764133224 | -2.32474642955447 | -0.533007185981333 |
12 | 59 | 55.9269689687799 | 0.730407977238299 | 1.77578254058315 | 0.196192833634787 |
13 | 44 | 56.3322289356696 | 0.736556369921038 | -10.1265350015043 | -0.329520700187165 |
14 | 36 | 53.3160838653743 | 0.551367235294654 | -4.85042774181174 | -1.97251277464884 |
15 | 72 | 56.1462098620253 | 0.678459802103687 | 9.18165017852966 | 1.08291331779463 |
16 | 45 | 55.058095242053 | 0.582852895980019 | -4.74356327153115 | -0.862760661319053 |
17 | 56 | 55.4248167522066 | 0.571812238851777 | 1.26021093683455 | -0.110643642358113 |
18 | 54 | 55.1217132483546 | 0.529787140264538 | 1.79122994332995 | -0.468073674291378 |
19 | 53 | 55.2065182205293 | 0.509649758413919 | -0.661411211431124 | -0.247201561470065 |
20 | 35 | 53.2928554943333 | 0.405993485232927 | -9.57558067988913 | -1.38969566178409 |
21 | 61 | 54.0446047696904 | 0.420018290898867 | 5.67384657931283 | 0.203698345347536 |
22 | 52 | 53.5161585281153 | 0.383451222330818 | 2.09133750566887 | -0.571946593328757 |
23 | 47 | 53.18379244657 | 0.357330486447834 | -3.39304821665302 | -0.441294777764235 |
24 | 51 | 52.7576254627434 | 0.331821837620316 | 1.42351760485177 | -0.50030873180266 |
25 | 52 | 53.393681404087 | 0.334467383427234 | -2.91248720433094 | 0.238013795260528 |
26 | 63 | 55.7506329182407 | 0.386383838953319 | -1.08051085832075 | 1.33111479342128 |
27 | 74 | 57.4972642698797 | 0.429795701161531 | 11.3354132799862 | 0.836180039173977 |
28 | 45 | 57.0092214244353 | 0.399556006675553 | -8.55539273461992 | -0.56070958621908 |
29 | 51 | 56.1634905142349 | 0.359394654581507 | -0.409936037262088 | -0.771341119699042 |
30 | 64 | 57.0085310370603 | 0.374479768370818 | 5.10083793944758 | 0.306322904980649 |
31 | 36 | 54.4646419009697 | 0.287521919247104 | -6.88315851592293 | -1.87338887376895 |
32 | 30 | 52.3777896717982 | 0.219655898006101 | -12.7910123563833 | -1.54839304502992 |
33 | 55 | 51.6826478934933 | 0.194561223439965 | 7.06816613686863 | -0.604975821696486 |
34 | 64 | 52.8949677162956 | 0.221281262802052 | 6.8712553931969 | 0.681927251137723 |
35 | 39 | 51.8538808554544 | 0.190134822516464 | -7.51335314081002 | -0.858540758339722 |
36 | 40 | 50.3169940196333 | 0.153400464786647 | -2.78109455127934 | -1.20701409619885 |
37 | 63 | 52.1336476450465 | 0.172851211250169 | 2.99158108684999 | 1.25745814675726 |
38 | 45 | 51.8776723527386 | 0.165163871679258 | -4.98983538979901 | -0.303709522528703 |
39 | 59 | 51.3081817626717 | 0.148940758083988 | 10.7700438640505 | -0.498697830082819 |
40 | 55 | 52.7154855639546 | 0.17850651897955 | -2.91236135275176 | 0.844381301213788 |
41 | 40 | 51.4607954981165 | 0.144740802856046 | -5.52624056845741 | -0.964761979746398 |
42 | 64 | 51.9113947149439 | 0.151796979203128 | 10.8107148690089 | 0.207653088178401 |
43 | 27 | 49.569603531823 | 0.0959865593902811 | -12.0403514054693 | -1.7096684150664 |
44 | 28 | 48.1397975990485 | 0.0629804906621448 | -13.629058547596 | -1.05627505056528 |
45 | 45 | 46.7735161857766 | 0.0331927254388154 | 4.38732759280101 | -0.998619200326333 |
46 | 57 | 46.7764707827994 | 0.032590468382702 | 10.3552406267113 | -0.0213268746658416 |
47 | 45 | 47.2931160508011 | 0.0415739288817546 | -4.42947294360182 | 0.345395981609572 |
48 | 69 | 50.4129453780655 | 0.0909461200618712 | 4.70423627714895 | 2.23926448303041 |
49 | 60 | 51.5905476979353 | 0.103645818564432 | 3.32738834954036 | 0.81794039031203 |
50 | 56 | 52.9226989740611 | 0.121202104802161 | -2.48924902734101 | 0.89872986428568 |
51 | 58 | 52.6696200364005 | 0.114880033552314 | 6.97609368353074 | -0.266782073171524 |
52 | 50 | 52.5873543933026 | 0.111304445477343 | -1.73148196057455 | -0.13905037567473 |
53 | 51 | 53.0528675380641 | 0.117841824363637 | -3.58859416012087 | 0.249691041457891 |
54 | 53 | 51.5548695799714 | 0.0882843756782409 | 8.48028199409069 | -1.14380737714284 |
55 | 37 | 50.884475072407 | 0.0747063062870747 | -10.5600971636644 | -0.540288315940446 |
56 | 22 | 48.8796016467694 | 0.0385537414840956 | -17.7021877956234 | -1.49073086461519 |
57 | 55 | 48.855182918162 | 0.0374973270071144 | 6.42479824863928 | -0.0454485060629214 |
58 | 70 | 50.2751889454552 | 0.0596229454079211 | 13.5275892326063 | 1.00512826720558 |
59 | 62 | 52.7882129093006 | 0.096140774407123 | -1.89924105410969 | 1.80000378360204 |
60 | 58 | 53.4735472886739 | 0.103873334351787 | 1.81864056392772 | 0.438002164070448 |
61 | 39 | 51.8304572005912 | 0.0847429648833302 | -4.65985854113487 | -1.31979280812915 |
62 | 49 | 51.5694438255308 | 0.0805486915413699 | -0.976649132644919 | -0.257652819400335 |
63 | 58 | 51.4574994770855 | 0.0779019637904182 | 7.41299407872505 | -0.141151231141377 |
64 | 47 | 51.124033892283 | 0.0718439290790956 | -2.28213391542378 | -0.299146140347208 |
65 | 42 | 50.2367807760254 | 0.0573625571042322 | -3.9530457314549 | -0.696224194478585 |
66 | 62 | 50.3681339038007 | 0.0584788648958054 | 11.3007721075047 | 0.0538190337270404 |
67 | 39 | 50.1104805873921 | 0.0537830932615876 | -9.69010283373238 | -0.230837538211109 |
68 | 40 | 51.0555790026356 | 0.0666927955977087 | -15.0806554878824 | 0.653904373425245 |
69 | 72 | 53.1371485280743 | 0.0948966163527882 | 9.71184943899776 | 1.4858866556932 |
70 | 70 | 54.1771513856692 | 0.107520614066176 | 11.5025414556276 | 0.701034884565534 |
71 | 54 | 54.6367265537889 | 0.11191012033054 | -2.2588107257993 | 0.26297748924643 |
72 | 65 | 55.549931556547 | 0.120927320482274 | 5.72123741689881 | 0.603908639469392 |