Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 36 | 34.2012639250363 | 1.52604127705436 | 0.168388686950368 | 1.00260733440515 |
3 | 24 | 26.8485585420262 | -3.51331255887087 | 0.113162792337215 | -2.08436026840253 |
4 | 22 | 22.2069200052785 | -4.14318407703775 | 0.119125473663121 | -0.241318414949701 |
5 | 17 | 17.1397873191141 | -4.65412428332036 | 0.124165448407131 | -0.196216642126763 |
6 | 8 | 8.89485743674289 | -6.64207919801153 | 0.135489524357312 | -0.765314479164172 |
7 | 12 | 9.7252168931169 | -2.49611101986678 | 0.125934394634555 | 1.59591424498781 |
8 | 5 | 5.39993218850375 | -3.51211598767895 | 0.126495673658938 | -0.390997878803174 |
9 | 6 | 4.98249667195369 | -1.79257265001567 | 0.126628908761275 | 0.66170695568307 |
10 | 5 | 4.49695910573825 | -1.06628477795784 | 0.126763161704232 | 0.279485828252498 |
11 | 8 | 6.88000439320186 | 0.850363318818672 | 0.127010595823344 | 0.737554164045013 |
12 | 15 | 13.2763090588003 | 3.93189378806493 | 0.127198383709428 | 1.18581809303288 |
13 | 16 | 17.318002734646 | 3.99033307136395 | -1.3482813117083 | 0.0267034114038989 |
14 | 17 | 17.6638208187395 | 2.17678597679187 | 0.0315015040212554 | -0.616375253147102 |
15 | 23 | 22.2644411073736 | 3.5070914204556 | 0.0410315850525193 | 0.51757860485749 |
16 | 24 | 24.3588954916227 | 2.71984921763439 | 0.0449165211860896 | -0.300429174788402 |
17 | 27 | 26.9823203363721 | 2.6663164116069 | 0.0452092238519468 | -0.0204890686561688 |
18 | 31 | 30.6650744011963 | 3.23017483411207 | 0.0433861616618676 | 0.216696377679836 |
19 | 40 | 38.6056211889902 | 5.84526109288063 | 0.0398881562187976 | 1.00618771342955 |
20 | 47 | 46.3996309517505 | 6.92780219210844 | 0.0395237846291284 | 0.416579145806414 |
21 | 43 | 45.2778046651958 | 2.45519703416715 | 0.0393789796071155 | -1.721122069375 |
22 | 60 | 57.2270202059723 | 7.73054908125439 | 0.0399111395485859 | 2.03002798299544 |
23 | 64 | 64.183073120238 | 7.300207387637 | 0.0398798680545726 | -0.165601642195267 |
24 | 65 | 66.4182511668421 | 4.48592979714522 | 0.0397813379688818 | -1.08297499735389 |
25 | 65 | 67.2936390162555 | 2.52214051079334 | -1.27618606065745 | -0.828173005276504 |
26 | 55 | 57.7685263184807 | -3.70208180148447 | -0.0862009006319306 | -2.22237612032119 |
27 | 57 | 56.408097672905 | -2.41148610270909 | -0.0801250175076629 | 0.500247844662509 |
28 | 57 | 56.3967700505099 | -1.07526507152261 | -0.084494556949681 | 0.511370855429129 |
29 | 57 | 56.6942455281093 | -0.312944925782652 | -0.0872572052743062 | 0.292303084849809 |
30 | 65 | 63.151180420863 | 3.44458201484503 | -0.0953055931892041 | 1.44469496717183 |
31 | 69 | 68.5376607085024 | 4.52296734292255 | -0.0962610893724889 | 0.414941366388454 |
32 | 70 | 70.758553691777 | 3.24406435043494 | -0.0959759533220865 | -0.492141741149609 |
33 | 71 | 71.7456847057498 | 1.9900552542638 | -0.0960028488854393 | -0.482560697362324 |
34 | 71 | 71.6861027201209 | 0.851196179381589 | -0.096078949394848 | -0.43824895834688 |
35 | 73 | 72.9711709482162 | 1.0922699010912 | -0.0960673453649989 | 0.092768642271535 |
36 | 68 | 69.4299322184541 | -1.48222533337378 | -0.0961270510659269 | -0.990703295715287 |
37 | 65 | 65.163998655517 | -3.00715047512751 | 0.626063994590626 | -0.624659698521557 |
38 | 57 | 58.0814746203794 | -5.15194304506137 | -0.10841551129042 | -0.782271769219973 |
39 | 41 | 43.7597988517412 | -10.2162200217886 | -0.126170422037028 | -1.95935121445869 |
40 | 21 | 23.8840364418744 | -15.5912062400871 | -0.113027843559159 | -2.05987192507429 |
41 | 21 | 18.2682003376718 | -10.0508800493767 | -0.128042729670501 | 2.12629838400532 |
42 | 17 | 15.1438850319715 | -6.20537033910178 | -0.13420099169599 | 1.47884708601448 |
43 | 9 | 9.09052300336945 | -6.12094503740503 | -0.134256915783165 | 0.0324859202722418 |
44 | 11 | 9.30991877196908 | -2.59848914174109 | -0.134844040737873 | 1.3554949300368 |
45 | 6 | 6.26372430437199 | -2.84724472930977 | -0.134848029371685 | -0.0957247362749055 |
46 | -2 | -0.684508132317973 | -5.1258930156645 | -0.134961861895131 | -0.876856174822895 |
47 | 0 | -1.19401558554102 | -2.5608932684772 | -0.134869558484621 | 0.987048995046183 |
48 | 5 | 3.14779274728369 | 1.27441082161067 | -0.134803062571775 | 1.47588095264132 |
49 | 3 | 2.34877374399532 | 0.134532082044099 | 1.2417922943666 | -0.459955574027534 |
50 | 7 | 6.16158823963998 | 2.09172713697021 | -0.0756189140390354 | 0.722365816784368 |
51 | 4 | 5.01198786351339 | 0.299411885969451 | -0.0806246420664529 | -0.692681808865843 |
52 | 8 | 7.46479479075115 | 1.49729555604938 | -0.0829635898265824 | 0.459450208628964 |
53 | 9 | 9.05610222561926 | 1.54951392717304 | -0.0830766069150015 | 0.0200514891864193 |
54 | 14 | 13.3081550978509 | 3.05015409458191 | -0.0849955167538563 | 0.577168746213113 |
55 | 12 | 13.0390856006664 | 1.20651333472149 | -0.0840203907899778 | -0.70942207480339 |
56 | 12 | 12.5670414534253 | 0.27395081256263 | -0.0838962768493965 | -0.358864198395747 |
57 | 7 | 8.37073286274253 | -2.20982555585599 | -0.0839280764735314 | -0.955793049911038 |
58 | 15 | 13.0893349048096 | 1.63982253853615 | -0.0837745199220572 | 1.48139951110515 |
59 | 14 | 14.228036090432 | 1.36138588747944 | -0.0837825203838355 | -0.107146458055964 |
60 | 19 | 18.3027151228444 | 2.86895273626781 | -0.0837616500234094 | 0.580133718642684 |