| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0694632456829113 |
| beta | 0.0885776433478735 |
| gamma | 0.436999348997286 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 10357 | 10605.4670208206 | -248.467020820563 |
| 14 | 8586 | 8783.22666265052 | -197.226662650515 |
| 15 | 8892 | 9096.25623046977 | -204.256230469766 |
| 16 | 8329 | 8496.82767224943 | -167.827672249428 |
| 17 | 8101 | 8239.05329129534 | -138.053291295337 |
| 18 | 7922 | 8062.5063050396 | -140.506305039596 |
| 19 | 8120 | 8097.67161848819 | 22.3283815118066 |
| 20 | 7838 | 8284.72752910465 | -446.727529104646 |
| 21 | 7735 | 7856.24343913682 | -121.243439136818 |
| 22 | 8406 | 8261.68382338031 | 144.316176619694 |
| 23 | 8209 | 8247.66791568051 | -38.6679156805058 |
| 24 | 9451 | 9958.72712230677 | -507.727122306775 |
| 25 | 10041 | 9715.79966549411 | 325.200334505895 |
| 26 | 9411 | 8069.87406861051 | 1341.12593138949 |
| 27 | 10405 | 8465.24249258328 | 1939.75750741672 |
| 28 | 8467 | 8065.9298462513 | 401.070153748702 |
| 29 | 8464 | 7883.2172551862 | 580.782744813801 |
| 30 | 8102 | 7779.58993598048 | 322.410064019523 |
| 31 | 7627 | 7932.84926850053 | -305.849268500528 |
| 32 | 7513 | 7926.31893748016 | -413.318937480158 |
| 33 | 7510 | 7658.30586195388 | -148.305861953883 |
| 34 | 8291 | 8181.20651162231 | 109.79348837769 |
| 35 | 8064 | 8113.31557929033 | -49.3155792903299 |
| 36 | 9383 | 9635.47470410537 | -252.474704105365 |
| 37 | 9706 | 9774.98023907322 | -68.9802390732202 |
| 38 | 8579 | 8543.52059502437 | 35.4794049756329 |
| 39 | 9474 | 9083.46623976826 | 390.533760231745 |
| 40 | 8318 | 7987.66578301673 | 330.334216983267 |
| 41 | 8213 | 7878.60839803014 | 334.391601969863 |
| 42 | 8059 | 7661.2840489808 | 397.715951019203 |
| 43 | 9111 | 7569.27453023027 | 1541.72546976973 |
| 44 | 7708 | 7660.25180106148 | 47.7481989385242 |
| 45 | 7680 | 7548.78362007696 | 131.21637992304 |
| 46 | 8014 | 8212.55932917365 | -198.559329173648 |
| 47 | 8007 | 8076.03532431288 | -69.0353243128793 |
| 48 | 8718 | 9530.5954290766 | -812.595429076597 |
| 49 | 9486 | 9721.60730769928 | -235.60730769928 |
| 50 | 9113 | 8539.45680505177 | 573.543194948226 |
| 51 | 9025 | 9281.03560502744 | -256.03560502744 |
| 52 | 8476 | 8129.17471214673 | 346.82528785327 |
| 53 | 7952 | 8035.26545058339 | -83.2654505833943 |
| 54 | 7759 | 7824.31033617256 | -65.3103361725616 |
| 55 | 7835 | 8162.63164870407 | -327.631648704074 |
| 56 | 7600 | 7523.88962353794 | 76.1103764620575 |
| 57 | 7651 | 7445.49225543182 | 205.507744568177 |
| 58 | 8319 | 7965.63342162489 | 353.366578375112 |
| 59 | 8812 | 7920.40041724079 | 891.599582759211 |
| 60 | 8630 | 9134.52471281817 | -504.524712818169 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 9587.1103247197 | 9107.8131259342 | 10066.4075235052 |
| 62 | 8759.91586649424 | 8275.59203380894 | 9244.23969917954 |
| 63 | 9127.18763020455 | 8635.06895626031 | 9619.3063041488 |
| 64 | 8247.12177420407 | 7750.83368804227 | 8743.40986036586 |
| 65 | 7959.72371723781 | 7456.73146000715 | 8462.71597446847 |
| 66 | 7766.99683166537 | 7256.33318771698 | 8277.66047561375 |
| 67 | 8006.84432230371 | 7483.65354381345 | 8530.03510079396 |
| 68 | 7561.47295503092 | 7032.60478021414 | 8090.3411298477 |
| 69 | 7536.22300737899 | 6995.93842935683 | 8076.50758540114 |
| 70 | 8106.28993456263 | 7542.47992480178 | 8670.09994432349 |
| 71 | 8254.94391557426 | 7672.84788802556 | 8837.03994312296 |
| 72 | 8829.26741593613 | 8432.09344228658 | 9226.44138958568 |
