| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[277]) |
| 270 | 333 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 271 | 428.000000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 272 | 230 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 273 | 292 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 274 | 350 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 275 | 186 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 276 | 326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 277 | 155 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 278 | 75 | 1428.3494 | 17.0948 | 4870600.4779 | 0.4998 | 0.5002 | 0.5002 | 0.5002 |
| 279 | 361 | 22722.0765 | 46.5289 | 6470877490116.27 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 280 | 261 | 437151.4579 | 52.2113 | 873479283.6547 | 0.4996 | 0.5004 | 0.5004 | 0.5004 |
| 281 | 299 | 5704884.8348 | 136.7611 | 16816718.5507 | 0.1572 | 0.8428 | 0.8428 | 0.8429 |
| 282 | 300 | 423903.9904 | 51.5636 | 933186126.8066 | 0.4996 | 0.5004 | 0.5004 | 0.5004 |
| 283 | 450 | 222068.3577 | 39.4597 | 4428430946.9791 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 284 | 183 | 230613.3916 | 40.0923 | 4003335874.9474 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 285 | 238 | 10075356.9195 | 64.6651 | 699740.7831 | 0.9824 | 0.0176 | 0.0176 | 0.0176 |
| 286 | 165 | 60145866212398.7 | 674.5765 | 3889.1314 | 0.975 | 0.025 | 0.025 | 0.025 |
| 287 | 234 | Inf | 658.273 | 658.273 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 288 | 176 | Inf | 658.273 | 658.273 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 289 | 329 | Inf | 658.273 | 658.273 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 278 | 1739.2604 | -0.9475 | 0 | 1831554.5785 | 0 | 0 |
| 279 | 145297816.0415 | -0.9841 | 0.9658 | 500017743.5411 | 250924649.0598 | 15840.6013 |
| 280 | 1018.9367 | -0.9994 | 0.977 | 190873272199.012 | 63791707165.7106 | 252570.2025 |
| 281 | 0.9938 | -0.9999 | 0.9827 | 32542299546140.7 | 8183418666909.45 | 2860667.5212 |
| 282 | 1122.6577 | -0.9993 | 0.986 | 179440340721.223 | 6582623001671.8 | 2565662.293 |
| 283 | 10173.8504 | -0.998 | 0.988 | 49114696463.7676 | 5493704950803.8 | 2343865.3867 |
| 284 | 8856.3835 | -0.9992 | 0.9896 | 53098165375.1815 | 4716475410028.28 | 2171744.7847 |
| 285 | -0.4748 | -1 | 0.9909 | 101508021241536 | 16815418638966.8 | 4100660.7564 |
| 286 | -0.5102 | -1 | 0.9919 | 3.61752522241991e+27 | 4.01947246935561e+26 | 20048622070744.9 |
| 287 | NaN | NaN | NaN | Inf | Inf | Inf |
| 288 | NaN | NaN | NaN | Inf | Inf | Inf |
| 289 | NaN | NaN | NaN | Inf | Inf | Inf |
