| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.335957853720046 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 164.257 | 172.438913995726 | -8.18191399572646 |
| 14 | 162.401 | 167.845569296834 | -5.44456929683378 |
| 15 | 152.779 | 154.149940381206 | -1.37094038120634 |
| 16 | 156.005 | 153.048087426258 | 2.95691257374165 |
| 17 | 153.387 | 146.780293994604 | 6.60670600539603 |
| 18 | 153.19 | 145.810260664103 | 7.37973933589694 |
| 19 | 148.84 | 160.178933952171 | -11.3389339521713 |
| 20 | 144.211 | 126.136005271227 | 18.0749947287733 |
| 21 | 145.953 | 109.316916939407 | 36.6360830605933 |
| 22 | 145.542 | 111.05086367292 | 34.4911363270801 |
| 23 | 150.271 | 122.883907038831 | 27.3870929611685 |
| 24 | 147.489 | 177.207957909464 | -29.7189579094639 |
| 25 | 143.824 | 199.357605098104 | -55.5336050981041 |
| 26 | 134.754 | 180.673800135403 | -45.9198001354028 |
| 27 | 131.736 | 156.085260826708 | -24.3492608267076 |
| 28 | 126.304 | 150.137537417785 | -23.8335374177853 |
| 29 | 125.511 | 137.292898570618 | -11.7818985706176 |
| 30 | 125.495 | 130.658395825784 | -5.16339582578428 |
| 31 | 130.133 | 128.383116360292 | 1.74988363970843 |
| 32 | 126.257 | 118.269567077068 | 7.98743292293196 |
| 33 | 110.323 | 110.386828064843 | -0.0638280648428662 |
| 34 | 98.417 | 98.3668163923598 | 0.0501836076402071 |
| 35 | 105.749 | 93.911766998609 | 11.837233001391 |
| 36 | 120.665 | 105.0908957058 | 15.5741042941998 |
| 37 | 124.075 | 125.315089136187 | -1.24008913618736 |
| 38 | 127.245 | 131.255588948316 | -4.0105889483157 |
| 39 | 146.731 | 135.070525500096 | 11.6604744999035 |
| 40 | 144.979 | 141.563017563877 | 3.41598243612307 |
| 41 | 148.21 | 145.875865047994 | 2.33413495200583 |
| 42 | 144.67 | 148.378719396301 | -3.70871939630055 |
| 43 | 142.97 | 151.182858836013 | -8.21285883601323 |
| 44 | 142.524 | 141.864243587039 | 0.659756412960519 |
| 45 | 146.142 | 126.173337475187 | 19.9686625248126 |
| 46 | 146.522 | 120.959106901569 | 25.5628930984314 |
| 47 | 148.128 | 132.902350208661 | 15.2256497913388 |
| 48 | 148.798 | 147.701284181761 | 1.09671581823909 |
| 49 | 150.181 | 151.896352158812 | -1.71535215881235 |
| 50 | 152.388 | 155.837454984393 | -3.44945498439318 |
| 51 | 155.694 | 170.247155504988 | -14.5531555049876 |
| 52 | 160.662 | 162.458282489093 | -1.79628248909265 |
| 53 | 155.52 | 164.301636310613 | -8.78163631061335 |
| 54 | 158.262 | 159.057350031981 | -0.795350031980718 |
| 55 | 154.338 | 159.849320369733 | -5.51132036973303 |
| 56 | 158.196 | 157.330098658678 | 0.865901341322314 |
| 57 | 160.371 | 154.530376011346 | 5.8406239886543 |
| 58 | 154.856 | 148.284524810736 | 6.57147518926416 |
| 59 | 150.636 | 146.983086885704 | 3.6529131142957 |
| 60 | 145.899 | 148.511861442972 | -2.61286144297247 |
| 61 | 141.242 | 149.593336150172 | -8.35133615017227 |
| 62 | 140.834 | 150.153510674526 | -9.31951067452638 |
| 63 | 141.119 | 155.217794758901 | -14.0987947589012 |
| 64 | 139.104 | 156.052669141372 | -16.9486691413718 |
| 65 | 134.437 | 148.166890320289 | -13.729890320289 |
| 66 | 129.425 | 146.563429926174 | -17.1384299261735 |
| 67 | 123.155 | 138.733211154624 | -15.5782111546239 |
| 68 | 119.273 | 137.066682414155 | -17.7936824141549 |
| 69 | 120.472 | 131.301551560905 | -10.8295515609052 |
| 70 | 121.523 | 119.940539961393 | 1.58246003860681 |
| 71 | 121.983 | 115.024954989857 | 6.95804501014331 |
| 72 | 123.658 | 113.503376180001 | 10.1546238199992 |
| 73 | 124.794 | 115.063598772609 | 9.73040122739131 |
| 74 | 124.827 | 121.055566288733 | 3.77143371126709 |
| 75 | 120.382 | 127.344209891057 | -6.96220989105748 |
| 76 | 117.395 | 128.684239307056 | -11.2892393070558 |
| 77 | 115.79 | 124.837195183141 | -9.04719518314126 |
| 78 | 114.283 | 122.543509041355 | -8.26050904135543 |
| 79 | 117.271 | 118.731948537492 | -1.46094853749177 |
| 80 | 117.448 | 120.337058756076 | -2.8890587560762 |
| 81 | 118.764 | 124.203729676266 | -5.43972967626601 |
| 82 | 120.55 | 122.895569891242 | -2.34556989124236 |
| 83 | 123.554 | 120.229947397135 | 3.32405260286501 |
| 84 | 125.412 | 119.610163351345 | 5.80183664865532 |
| 85 | 124.182 | 119.426331227272 | 4.75566877272806 |
| 86 | 119.828 | 119.789992726076 | 0.0380072739236255 |
| 87 | 115.361 | 117.696770660398 | -2.33577066039764 |
| 88 | 114.226 | 117.717758770279 | -3.49175877027865 |
| 89 | 115.214 | 117.979151264022 | -2.76515126402218 |
| 90 | 115.864 | 118.318359868319 | -2.45435986831882 |
| 91 | 114.276 | 120.972615529753 | -6.69661552975299 |
| 92 | 113.469 | 119.870436928151 | -6.40143692815131 |
| 93 | 114.883 | 120.863343823901 | -5.98034382390092 |
| 94 | 114.172 | 121.428212974727 | -7.25621297472739 |
| 95 | 111.225 | 120.877689659491 | -9.65268965949137 |
| 96 | 112.149 | 117.543620170746 | -5.39462017074642 |
| 97 | 115.618 | 112.903550882658 | 2.71444911734156 |
| 98 | 118.002 | 109.44872253998 | 8.55327746002034 |
| 99 | 121.382 | 108.63998377557 | 12.7420162244304 |
| 100 | 120.663 | 112.958847980566 | 7.70415201943382 |
| 101 | 128.049 | 117.46409264162 | 10.5849073583798 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 102 | 122.494736873184 | 95.4376065267439 | 149.551867219624 |
| 103 | 123.156517453748 | 94.6132623753835 | 151.699772532113 |
| 104 | 124.500130464854 | 94.5443878041734 | 154.455873125535 |
| 105 | 127.92327394044 | 96.6187115535086 | 159.227836327371 |
| 106 | 129.650055677565 | 97.052437143052 | 162.247674212078 |
| 107 | 129.945952578193 | 96.1046487911647 | 163.787256365222 |
| 108 | 132.682317592392 | 97.6414421768107 | 167.723193007973 |
| 109 | 135.239377092898 | 99.0386580700021 | 171.440096115793 |
| 110 | 134.749836355157 | 97.4252979700818 | 172.074374740233 |
| 111 | 133.849055932332 | 95.433560705232 | 172.264551159431 |
| 112 | 130.54178555515 | 91.0654713727484 | 170.018099737551 |
| 113 | 134.371702797203 | 93.8623398139123 | 174.881065780493 |
