| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 183.046 | 183.046 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 175.714 | 175.732403021243 | -6.99649879681643 | -0.0184030212433865 | -0.859844814910129 |
| 3 | 175.768 | 175.801794267875 | -0.0553095877381499 | -0.0337942678752582 | 0.823251469859346 |
| 4 | 171.029 | 171.062631563433 | -4.66446746493791 | -0.0336315634328831 | -0.554064734755155 |
| 5 | 170.465 | 170.498633830191 | -0.629252012683819 | -0.0336338301908033 | 0.485073012747827 |
| 6 | 170.102 | 170.135633832533 | -0.367236951002774 | -0.03363383253301 | 0.0314968152176777 |
| 7 | 156.389 | 156.422633830665 | -13.5006247260509 | -0.0336338306647545 | -1.57876377517733 |
| 8 | 124.291 | 124.324633830623 | -31.8020541890308 | -0.0336338306233254 | -2.20001376377617 |
| 9 | 99.36 | 99.3936338306236 | -25.0403412201578 | -0.0336338306235689 | 0.812825119934777 |
| 10 | 86.675 | 86.7086338306236 | -12.881614383661 | -0.0336338306235759 | 1.46159984084283 |
| 11 | 85.056 | 85.0896338306236 | -1.79822548199986 | -0.033633830623576 | 1.33233353068195 |
| 12 | 128.236 | 128.269633830624 | 42.4642475230969 | -0.033633830623576 | 5.32078928735924 |
| 13 | 164.257 | 164.050024569136 | 35.90133510902 | 0.206975430863629 | -0.799375596878316 |
| 14 | 162.401 | 162.566026352681 | 0.666170688965201 | -0.165026352680786 | -4.22895596064056 |
| 15 | 152.779 | 152.92488667259 | -9.46182067806393 | -0.145886672589664 | -1.20383182920727 |
| 16 | 156.005 | 156.151262285385 | 3.02409587280981 | -0.146262285385461 | 1.50092705572672 |
| 17 | 153.387 | 153.533259627389 | -2.52821557549207 | -0.146259627389296 | -0.667443033507497 |
| 18 | 153.19 | 153.336259644866 | -0.234097357765292 | -0.146259644865893 | 0.275775816579623 |
| 19 | 148.84 | 148.986259644375 | -4.28450236243646 | -0.146259644374872 | -0.486898948367368 |
| 20 | 144.211 | 144.357259644374 | -4.62351790205748 | -0.146259644374218 | -0.0407530381607034 |
| 21 | 145.953 | 146.099259644374 | 1.64070353584774 | -0.14625964437441 | 0.753021692136682 |
| 22 | 145.542 | 145.688259644374 | -0.378350604166402 | -0.146259644374409 | -0.242710379909151 |
| 23 | 150.271 | 150.417259644374 | 4.64772514297373 | -0.146259644374409 | 0.604184271171652 |
| 24 | 147.489 | 147.635259644374 | -2.66376847537211 | -0.146259644374409 | -0.878914219605634 |
| 25 | 143.824 | 142.272075755576 | -5.31513398907397 | 1.55192424442376 | -0.322373128480509 |
| 26 | 134.754 | 134.90213973863 | -7.26218573379183 | -0.148139738630451 | -0.23376420298697 |
| 27 | 131.736 | 131.891093664642 | -3.08425308076356 | -0.155093664642196 | 0.497271522383796 |
| 28 | 126.304 | 126.459032451181 | -5.39463975397007 | -0.15503245118071 | -0.277730755420722 |
| 29 | 125.511 | 125.666034360457 | -0.866227323052505 | -0.155034360457166 | 0.544360192735052 |
| 30 | 125.495 | 125.650034366071 | -0.0295299315587434 | -0.1550343660709 | 0.100579344423618 |
| 31 | 130.133 | 130.288034366561 | 4.56372414598995 | -0.155034366561316 | 0.552154803621706 |
| 32 | 126.257 | 126.412034366547 | -3.74169604742883 | -0.155034366547205 | -0.998394074977944 |
| 33 | 110.323 | 110.478034366547 | -15.739980079034 | -0.15503436654688 | -1.44231302066442 |
| 34 | 98.417 | 98.5720343665469 | -11.9670113162215 | -0.155034366546882 | 0.453548353983793 |
| 35 | 105.749 | 105.904034366547 | 7.02488883669066 | -0.155034366546882 | 2.28301520497003 |
| 36 | 120.665 | 120.820034366547 | 14.7904262962771 | -0.155034366546882 | 0.933494803166486 |
| 37 | 124.075 | 122.611139134903 | 2.01957372506751 | 1.46386086509654 | -1.55068918504703 |
| 38 | 127.245 | 127.36969596475 | 4.62580752924596 | -0.124695964749904 | 0.312977998254472 |
| 39 | 146.731 | 146.877449311645 | 19.2535479689292 | -0.146449311645329 | 1.74289943792781 |
| 40 | 144.979 | 145.124959989986 | -1.41773362873603 | -0.145959989986068 | -2.48488802451401 |
| 41 | 148.21 | 148.355961713265 | 3.15702325747751 | -0.145961713265197 | 0.549931257025073 |
| 42 | 144.67 | 144.815961673759 | -3.43342818812775 | -0.145961673759174 | -0.792237782253939 |
| 43 | 142.97 | 143.115961673922 | -1.72758458133665 | -0.145961673921896 | 0.205059360056073 |
| 44 | 142.524 | 142.669961673924 | -0.466394253633225 | -0.145961673923811 | 0.151607615421595 |
| 45 | 146.142 | 146.287961673924 | 3.55300376521396 | -0.145961673923908 | 0.483171600417637 |
| 46 | 146.522 | 146.667961673924 | 0.430492994773282 | -0.145961673923907 | -0.37535683682002 |
| 47 | 148.128 | 148.273961673924 | 1.58729379179388 | -0.145961673923907 | 0.139058956052616 |
| 48 | 148.798 | 148.943961673924 | 0.684597181113497 | -0.145961673923907 | -0.10851310669629 |
| 49 | 150.181 | 148.592620590412 | -0.333317208335217 | 1.58837940958846 | -0.123468220627307 |
| 50 | 152.388 | 152.520635878063 | 3.73508763381224 | -0.132635878063103 | 0.488649179114955 |
| 51 | 155.694 | 155.826068206835 | 3.31272319988054 | -0.132068206835083 | -0.0503680943771331 |
| 52 | 160.662 | 160.794103053048 | 4.94165916853154 | -0.132103053047728 | 0.195813903885711 |
| 53 | 155.52 | 155.652099675017 | -4.9815355988 | -0.132099675016546 | -1.19286666114315 |
| 54 | 158.262 | 158.39409971619 | 2.61909297830121 | -0.132099716190463 | 0.913671116062012 |
| 55 | 154.338 | 154.470099715635 | -3.81987772848663 | -0.132099715635391 | -0.774028291513483 |
| 56 | 158.196 | 158.328099715646 | 3.73581954617748 | -0.132099715645756 | 0.908269926827925 |
| 57 | 160.371 | 160.503099715646 | 2.19983780638751 | -0.132099715645722 | -0.184640274973176 |
| 58 | 154.856 | 154.988099715646 | -5.39223138897427 | -0.132099715645719 | -0.912642193284582 |
| 59 | 150.636 | 150.768099715646 | -4.23865408230696 | -0.13209971564572 | 0.138671460466056 |
| 60 | 145.899 | 146.031099715646 | -4.72906966657485 | -0.13209971564572 | -0.058952828659758 |
| 61 | 141.242 | 139.811273035362 | -6.19410253176774 | 1.4307269646384 | -0.177549082195429 |
| 62 | 140.834 | 140.945644474923 | 0.821799604682035 | -0.111644474922641 | 0.842773919309908 |
| 63 | 141.119 | 141.22999669568 | 0.293422443904637 | -0.110996695679796 | -0.0630549686372683 |
| 64 | 139.104 | 139.214952368405 | -1.97826548687058 | -0.110952368404594 | -0.273078972540903 |
| 65 | 134.437 | 134.547951546797 | -4.62421333233684 | -0.110951546797441 | -0.318069235374897 |
| 66 | 129.425 | 129.535951544912 | -5.00582903027154 | -0.110951544911754 | -0.0458740006963694 |
| 67 | 123.155 | 123.265951544814 | -6.24988285457874 | -0.11095154481393 | -0.149547637352071 |
| 68 | 119.273 | 119.383951544817 | -3.91968085556998 | -0.110951544816846 | 0.280113445814047 |
| 69 | 120.472 | 120.582951544817 | 1.11754484116282 | -0.110951544816947 | 0.605524605959102 |
| 70 | 121.523 | 121.633951544817 | 1.05205894873302 | -0.110951544816946 | -0.0078720552932851 |
| 71 | 121.983 | 122.093951544817 | 0.469421618004883 | -0.110951544816947 | -0.0700387994000445 |
| 72 | 123.658 | 123.768951544817 | 1.65581525663214 | -0.110951544816946 | 0.142616309808812 |
| 73 | 124.794 | 123.5985328177 | -0.139120752291585 | 1.19546718230008 | -0.217376297563184 |
| 74 | 124.827 | 124.932280059353 | 1.27415590966911 | -0.105280059352589 | 0.169784061269219 |
| 75 | 120.382 | 120.48093602645 | -4.3551625179351 | -0.0989360264499145 | -0.672184171288407 |
| 76 | 117.395 | 117.493960177066 | -3.0087719241651 | -0.0989601770664675 | 0.161849261697914 |
| 77 | 115.79 | 115.888960571385 | -1.62733865876499 | -0.0989605713853989 | 0.166062011848272 |
| 78 | 114.283 | 114.381960571923 | -1.50891498646636 | -0.098960571923318 | 0.0142357027105933 |
| 79 | 117.271 | 117.369960572243 | 2.91643919462154 | -0.0989605722431975 | 0.531971566902546 |
| 80 | 117.448 | 117.54696057224 | 0.220593547052229 | -0.0989605722400968 | -0.324067447390686 |
| 81 | 118.764 | 118.86296057224 | 1.29856845676966 | -0.0989605722401166 | 0.129583300756967 |
| 82 | 120.55 | 120.64896057224 | 1.77824335040681 | -0.0989605722401165 | 0.0576616908681493 |
| 83 | 123.554 | 123.65296057224 | 2.98449415359043 | -0.0989605722401168 | 0.145003338397041 |
| 84 | 125.412 | 125.51096057224 | 1.87592625146966 | -0.0989605722401166 | -0.13326088258185 |
| 85 | 124.182 | 123.146795957109 | -2.29191681332573 | 1.03520404289103 | -0.504447654300185 |
| 86 | 119.828 | 119.924094599544 | -3.18677369643424 | -0.0960945995441237 | -0.107511931602695 |
| 87 | 115.361 | 115.455780581186 | -4.44687038028754 | -0.0947805811856527 | -0.150541024293034 |
| 88 | 114.226 | 114.320834674003 | -1.18770266317438 | -0.0948346740028174 | 0.391783749539346 |
| 89 | 115.214 | 115.308835239495 | 0.953377367553028 | -0.0948352394946729 | 0.257379104982758 |
| 90 | 115.864 | 115.95883523824 | 0.654827738309718 | -0.0948352382398844 | -0.0358886334444034 |
| 91 | 114.276 | 114.370835238092 | -1.55230918535005 | -0.0948352380922646 | -0.265319800314629 |
| 92 | 113.469 | 113.563835238093 | -0.818860336635257 | -0.0948352380930455 | 0.088167843143745 |
| 93 | 114.883 | 114.977835238093 | 1.37846779970978 | -0.0948352380930829 | 0.264140686566054 |
| 94 | 114.172 | 114.266835238093 | -0.677749649702168 | -0.0948352380930821 | -0.247177779155096 |
| 95 | 111.225 | 111.319835238093 | -2.91088871411593 | -0.0948352380930824 | -0.268445516131645 |
| 96 | 112.149 | 112.243835238093 | 0.862974224386095 | -0.0948352380930823 | 0.453655842791059 |
| 97 | 115.618 | 114.557912993757 | 2.28947403606792 | 1.06008700624296 | 0.17256645597025 |
| 98 | 118.002 | 118.095896384145 | 3.491786891633 | -0.0938963841446414 | 0.14445995293318 |
| 99 | 121.382 | 121.47578960392 | 3.38175913581752 | -0.093789603919826 | -0.0131504687937015 |
| 100 | 120.663 | 120.75672728249 | -0.653743529166303 | -0.0937272824903939 | -0.485106835229045 |
| 101 | 128.049 | 128.142729226847 | 7.25806106335001 | -0.0937292268468285 | 0.951077566299285 |
