Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.107590001844371 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 10.89 | 10.91 | -0.0199999999999996 |
4 | 10.94 | 10.8778481999631 | 0.0621518000368866 |
5 | 10.98 | 10.9345351122437 | 0.0454648877562889 |
6 | 10.99 | 10.9794266796013 | 0.0105733203987342 |
7 | 11.02 | 10.9905642631625 | 0.0294357368375326 |
8 | 11.04 | 11.0237312541431 | 0.0162687458568929 |
9 | 11.05 | 11.0454816085399 | 0.00451839146014521 |
10 | 11.05 | 11.0559677422854 | -0.00596774228538699 |
11 | 11.02 | 11.0553256728819 | -0.0353256728818963 |
12 | 10.91 | 11.0215249836714 | -0.111524983671378 |
13 | 11.01 | 10.8995260104725 | 0.110473989527518 |
14 | 11.02 | 11.0114119072095 | 0.00858809279049844 |
15 | 11.03 | 11.0223359001287 | 0.0076640998713291 |
16 | 11.04 | 11.033160480648 | 0.0068395193520363 |
17 | 11.06 | 11.0438963445477 | 0.0161036554523388 |
18 | 11.08 | 11.0656289368675 | 0.0143710631325185 |
19 | 11.06 | 11.0871751195764 | -0.0271751195764143 |
20 | 11.06 | 11.0642513484111 | -0.00425134841106711 |
21 | 11.09 | 11.0637939458277 | 0.0262060541723201 |
22 | 11.07 | 11.0966134552444 | -0.0266134552444122 |
23 | 11.06 | 11.0737501135456 | -0.0137501135455818 |
24 | 11.08 | 11.0622707388039 | 0.0177292611961466 |
25 | 11.08 | 11.0841782300486 | -0.00417823004864459 |
26 | 11.08 | 11.08372869427 | -0.00372869427000566 |
27 | 11.11 | 11.0833275240466 | 0.0266724759533812 |
28 | 11.09 | 11.1161972157836 | -0.0261972157836361 |
29 | 11.08 | 11.0933786572892 | -0.0133786572891577 |
30 | 11.05 | 11.0819392475267 | -0.0319392475267417 |
31 | 11.07 | 11.0485029038264 | 0.021497096173567 |
32 | 11.06 | 11.0708157764434 | -0.010815776443394 |
33 | 11.06 | 11.0596521070359 | 0.000347892964098762 |
34 | 11.07 | 11.0596895368406 | 0.0103104631594491 |
35 | 11.02 | 11.0707988395909 | -0.0507988395908932 |
36 | 11.01 | 11.0153333923456 | -0.00533339234561581 |
37 | 11.04 | 11.0047595726533 | 0.0352404273466842 |
38 | 11.02 | 11.0385510902965 | -0.0185510902965405 |
39 | 11.03 | 11.0165551784573 | 0.013444821542679 |
40 | 11.17 | 11.0280017068319 | 0.141998293168106 |
41 | 11.19 | 11.1832793034557 | 0.00672069654425123 |
42 | 11.15 | 11.2040023832093 | -0.0540023832093386 |
43 | 11.13 | 11.1581922667002 | -0.0281922667002465 |
44 | 11.06 | 11.135159060674 | -0.07515906067397 |
45 | 11.01 | 11.0570726971974 | -0.0470726971974376 |
46 | 11.03 | 11.0020081456191 | 0.0279918543808542 |
47 | 10.99 | 11.0250197892836 | -0.0350197892836075 |
48 | 10.94 | 10.98125201009 | -0.0412520100899965 |
49 | 11 | 10.9268137062483 | 0.0731862937516716 |
50 | 11.06 | 10.9946878197281 | 0.0653121802719472 |
51 | 11.06 | 11.061714757324 | -0.00171475732397219 |
52 | 11.05 | 11.0615302665803 | -0.0115302665803227 |
53 | 11.04 | 11.0502897251777 | -0.0102897251776817 |
54 | 11.15 | 11.0391826536268 | 0.110817346373166 |
55 | 11.2 | 11.1611054921275 | 0.0388945078724863 |
56 | 11.16 | 11.2152901523012 | -0.0552901523012483 |
57 | 11.3 | 11.1693414847132 | 0.130658515286818 |
58 | 11.23 | 11.3233990346139 | -0.0933990346138742 |
59 | 11.25 | 11.2433502323075 | 0.00664976769249392 |
60 | 11.25 | 11.2640656808258 | -0.0140656808258051 |
61 | 11.12 | 11.2625523541998 | -0.142552354199815 |
62 | 11.14 | 11.1172151461485 | 0.0227848538514639 |
63 | 11.17 | 11.1396665686164 | 0.0303334313835588 |
64 | 11.25 | 11.1729301425549 | 0.077069857445057 |
65 | 11.27 | 11.2612220886596 | 0.00877791134039718 |
66 | 11.34 | 11.2821665041569 | 0.0578334958430951 |
67 | 11.39 | 11.3583888100813 | 0.0316111899186708 |
68 | 11.44 | 11.411789858063 | 0.0282101419370164 |
69 | 11.46 | 11.464824987286 | -0.00482498728601399 |
70 | 11.49 | 11.484305866895 | 0.0056941331049849 |
71 | 11.51 | 11.5149184986863 | -0.00491849868628336 |
72 | 11.48 | 11.5343893174036 | -0.0543893174035528 |
73 | 11.49 | 11.4985375706438 | -0.00853757064379224 |
74 | 11.52 | 11.5076190134025 | 0.0123809865975204 |
75 | 11.56 | 11.5389510837733 | 0.0210489162266594 |
76 | 11.58 | 11.581215736709 | -0.00121573670899089 |
77 | 11.58 | 11.6010849355942 | -0.021084935594228 |
78 | 11.58 | 11.5988164073348 | -0.0188164073347554 |
79 | 11.6 | 11.5967919500349 | 0.00320804996509416 |
80 | 11.62 | 11.6171371041366 | 0.00286289586343358 |
81 | 11.62 | 11.6374451231078 | -0.0174451231077928 |
82 | 11.64 | 11.6355682022804 | 0.00443179771955116 |
83 | 11.67 | 11.6560450194053 | 0.013954980594729 |
84 | 11.66 | 11.6875464357932 | -0.0275464357931963 |
85 | 11.72 | 11.6745827147154 | 0.0454172852846 |
86 | 11.82 | 11.7394691605229 | 0.0805308394770634 |
87 | 11.9 | 11.8481334736908 | 0.0518665263091975 |
88 | 12.04 | 11.9337137933521 | 0.106286206647928 |
89 | 12.08 | 12.0851491265214 | -0.00514912652135102 |
90 | 12.15 | 12.1245951319894 | 0.0254048680105772 |
91 | 12.19 | 12.1973284417855 | -0.00732844178553727 |
92 | 12.22 | 12.2365399747203 | -0.0165399747203132 |
93 | 12.23 | 12.2647604388097 | -0.0347604388096503 |
94 | 12.25 | 12.271020563134 | -0.0210205631340088 |
95 | 12.26 | 12.2887589607077 | -0.0287589607076519 |
96 | 12.27 | 12.2956647840721 | -0.0256647840720721 |
97 | 12.34 | 12.3029035099064 | 0.0370964900935782 |
98 | 12.38 | 12.376894721344 | 0.00310527865599042 |
99 | 12.42 | 12.4172288182803 | 0.00277118171966251 |
100 | 12.43 | 12.4575269697267 | -0.0275269697266651 |
101 | 12.48 | 12.464565343003 | 0.0154346569969963 |
102 | 12.5 | 12.5162259577778 | -0.0162259577777775 |
103 | 12.5 | 12.5344802069505 | -0.0344802069505405 |
104 | 12.49 | 12.5307704814211 | -0.040770481421136 |
105 | 12.46 | 12.5163839852498 | -0.0563839852498411 |
106 | 12.45 | 12.4803176321728 | -0.0303176321728191 |
107 | 12.45 | 12.4670557580714 | -0.017055758071427 |
108 | 12.38 | 12.4652207290291 | -0.0852207290290643 |
109 | 12.42 | 12.3860518306357 | 0.0339481693643489 |
110 | 12.37 | 12.4297043142402 | -0.0597043142401734 |
111 | 12.35 | 12.373280726961 | -0.0232807269609552 |
112 | 12.35 | 12.3507759535043 | -0.00077595350428794 |
113 | 12.36 | 12.3506924686653 | 0.00930753133466844 |
114 | 12.32 | 12.3616938659788 | -0.0416938659787931 |
115 | 12.32 | 12.3172080228612 | 0.002791977138763 |
116 | 12.34 | 12.3175084116867 | 0.0224915883132528 |
117 | 12.35 | 12.3399282817149 | 0.0100717182851486 |
118 | 12.34 | 12.3510118979037 | -0.0110118979037264 |
119 | 12.31 | 12.339827127788 | -0.0298271277879536 |
120 | 12.24 | 12.3066180270542 | -0.0666180270542363 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
121 | 12.2294505934006 | 12.142843975568 | 12.3160572112332 |
122 | 12.2189011868012 | 12.0896640414331 | 12.3481383321693 |
123 | 12.2083517802018 | 12.0416836940259 | 12.3750198663777 |
124 | 12.1978023736024 | 11.9955589797663 | 12.4000457674386 |
125 | 12.187252967003 | 11.9500857086737 | 12.4244202253324 |
126 | 12.1767035604036 | 11.9046931641926 | 12.4487139566146 |
127 | 12.1661541538042 | 11.8590709688223 | 12.4732373387861 |
128 | 12.1556047472048 | 11.8130361563258 | 12.4981733380838 |
129 | 12.1450553406054 | 11.7664753926427 | 12.5236352885682 |
130 | 12.134505934006 | 11.7193164042673 | 12.5496954637448 |
131 | 12.1239565274066 | 11.6715125024151 | 12.5764005523981 |
132 | 12.1134071208072 | 11.6230336122294 | 12.6037806293851 |