| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.995428577289491 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 873127 | 655362 | 217765 |
| 3 | 1107897 | 872131.504133446 | 235765.495866554 |
| 4 | 1555964 | 1106819.21625784 | 449144.783742159 |
| 5 | 1671159 | 1553910.76933529 | 117248.230664705 |
| 6 | 1493308 | 1670623.00877557 | -177315.008775572 |
| 7 | 2957796 | 1494118.58185803 | 1463677.41814197 |
| 8 | 2638691 | 2951104.91180985 | -312413.911809847 |
| 9 | 1305669 | 2640119.17605153 | -1334450.17605153 |
| 10 | 1280496 | 1311769.33584084 | -31273.3358408443 |
| 11 | 921900 | 1280638.9636377 | -358738.963637696 |
| 12 | 867888 | 923539.947445518 | -55651.9474455178 |
| 13 | 652586 | 868142.408576436 | -215556.408576436 |
| 14 | 913831 | 653571.399461562 | 260259.600538438 |
| 15 | 1108544 | 912641.243351471 | 195902.756648529 |
| 16 | 1555827 | 1107648.44568921 | 448178.554310794 |
| 17 | 1699283 | 1553778.18637846 | 145504.813621539 |
| 18 | 1509458 | 1698617.83599052 | -189159.835990522 |
| 19 | 3268975 | 1510322.72957016 | 1758652.27042984 |
| 20 | 2425016 | 3260935.45707107 | -835919.45707107 |
| 21 | 1312703 | 2428837.34119021 | -1116134.34119021 |
| 22 | 1365498 | 1317805.3218753 | 47692.6781247042 |
| 23 | 934453 | 1365279.9766081 | -430826.976608096 |
| 24 | 775019 | 936422.492225166 | -161403.492225166 |
| 25 | 651142 | 775756.843589914 | -124614.843589914 |
| 26 | 843192 | 651711.667126053 | 191480.332873947 |
| 27 | 1146766 | 842316.662457684 | 304449.337542316 |
| 28 | 1652601 | 1145374.23338416 | 507226.76661584 |
| 29 | 1465906 | 1650282.25203971 | -184376.252039714 |
| 30 | 1652734 | 1466748.86178585 | 185985.138214147 |
| 31 | 2922334 | 1651883.78331535 | 1270450.21668465 |
| 32 | 2702805 | 2916526.23502688 | -213721.235026877 |
| 33 | 1458956 | 2703782.01010752 | -1244826.01010752 |
| 34 | 1410363 | 1464646.62589324 | -54283.6258932375 |
| 35 | 1019279 | 1410611.15340022 | -391332.153400217 |
| 36 | 936574 | 1021067.94469341 | -84493.9446934061 |
| 37 | 708917 | 936960.257537672 | -228043.257537672 |
| 38 | 885295 | 709959.482126486 | 175335.517873514 |
| 39 | 1099663 | 884493.467231634 | 215169.532768366 |
| 40 | 1576220 | 1098679.36911129 | 477540.630888707 |
| 41 | 1487870 | 1574036.95991476 | -86166.9599147646 |
| 42 | 1488635 | 1488263.90559745 | 371.094402550254 |
| 43 | 2882530 | 1488633.30357062 | 1393896.69642938 |
| 44 | 2677026 | 2876157.90898584 | -199131.90898584 |
| 45 | 1404398 | 2677936.31613112 | -1273538.31613112 |
| 46 | 1344370 | 1410219.88198107 | -65849.881981065 |
| 47 | 936865 | 1344671.02764597 | -407806.027645973 |
| 48 | 872705 | 938729.253736263 | -66024.2537362631 |
| 49 | 628151 | 873006.824772974 | -244855.824772974 |
| 50 | 953712 | 629270.339478168 | 324441.660521832 |
| 51 | 1160384 | 952228.840024855 | 208155.159975145 |
| 52 | 1400618 | 1159432.43477438 | 241185.56522562 |
| 53 | 1661511 | 1399515.43882968 | 261995.561170319 |
| 54 | 1495347 | 1660313.30754161 | -164966.307541613 |
| 55 | 2918786 | 1496101.13072476 | 1422684.86927524 |
| 56 | 2775677 | 2912282.3060787 | -136605.306078698 |
| 57 | 1407026 | 2776301.48059858 | -1369275.48059858 |
| 58 | 1370199 | 1413285.53702895 | -43086.5370289513 |
| 59 | 964526 | 1370395.96677389 | -405869.966773891 |
| 60 | 850851 | 966381.403183624 | -115530.403183624 |
| 61 | 683118 | 851379.138308868 | -168261.138308868 |
| 62 | 847224 | 683887.192788961 | 163336.807211039 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 846477.318410053 | 226778.681589947 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1072219.29878472 | 442106.70121528 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1512304.9433856 | -8570.94338559639 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1503773.18140524 | 3938.81859475654 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 1507693.99399522 | 1358004.00600478 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2859489.98964599 | -71361.9896459877 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 2788454.22582013 | -1396858.22582013 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1397981.62941688 | -31603.6294168753 |
| 71 | 946295 | 1366522.47354925 | -420227.473549251 |
| 72 | 859626 | 948216.037416163 | -88590.0374161628 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 860030.982508969 | -354961.958876085 | 2075023.92389402 |
| 74 | 860030.982508969 | -854305.56692443 | 2574367.53194237 |
| 75 | 860030.982508969 | -1237989.93298042 | 2958051.89799836 |
| 76 | 860030.982508969 | -1561628.30792365 | 3281690.27294159 |
| 77 | 860030.982508969 | -1846844.64744641 | 3566906.61246435 |
| 78 | 860030.982508969 | -2104748.5427094 | 3824810.50772734 |
| 79 | 860030.982508969 | -2341946.46748373 | 4062008.43250167 |
| 80 | 860030.982508969 | -2562745.89414681 | 4282807.85916474 |
| 81 | 860030.982508969 | -2770140.29505868 | 4490202.26007662 |
| 82 | 860030.982508969 | -2966310.01922949 | 4686371.98424743 |
| 83 | 860030.982508969 | -3152901.53856494 | 4872963.50358288 |
| 84 | 860030.982508969 | -3331194.30084199 | 5051256.26585992 |
