| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 112 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 118 | 116.662660827916 | 4.77318473214536 | 1.33733917208356 | 0.424228080065078 |
| 3 | 132 | 130.365394540249 | 11.0862938340939 | 1.63460545975145 | 0.529048171962372 |
| 4 | 129 | 132.255403542479 | 4.19626405539336 | -3.25540354247917 | -0.555722284735252 |
| 5 | 121 | 123.494625852888 | -5.302316486597 | -2.49462585288816 | -0.743105120644572 |
| 6 | 135 | 130.681795342109 | 3.82135945212035 | 4.31820465789088 | 0.720130208797928 |
| 7 | 148 | 145.954146610852 | 12.210608355824 | 2.04585338914759 | 0.661413907994762 |
| 8 | 148 | 150.795462122989 | 6.80932763546608 | -2.79546212298933 | -0.425692684219446 |
| 9 | 136 | 139.990519875019 | -6.09921746226408 | -3.99051987501923 | -1.0174338259679 |
| 10 | 119 | 120.957802153587 | -15.5758534122408 | -1.95780215358673 | -0.746920872935759 |
| 11 | 104 | 103.451987853723 | -16.989907760963 | 0.548012146276897 | -0.111451527449667 |
| 12 | 118 | 111.320725612804 | 1.22406086058887 | 6.67927438719558 | 1.43557125622478 |
| 13 | 115 | 116.084408670519 | 3.81134595816173 | -1.08440867051871 | 0.204507666739328 |
| 14 | 126 | 126.603292864737 | 8.73193668269216 | -0.603292864736859 | 0.393842477554375 |
| 15 | 141 | 136.885429393888 | 9.82660264975251 | 4.11457060611165 | 0.0859104665178879 |
| 16 | 135 | 136.623510337291 | 2.7026419419662 | -1.62351033729141 | -0.570082897468207 |
| 17 | 125 | 132.265781787584 | -2.30644459232102 | -7.26578178758361 | -0.394341929883733 |
| 18 | 149 | 144.775317848684 | 8.1259301364456 | 4.22468215131552 | 0.820765574610392 |
| 19 | 170 | 165.123435188774 | 16.7344107454318 | 4.87656481122616 | 0.678999384292516 |
| 20 | 170 | 172.074060475193 | 9.83368012585274 | -2.07406047519338 | -0.543950630242743 |
| 21 | 158 | 162.374910057774 | -3.94679629793627 | -4.37491005777407 | -1.08607978921474 |
| 22 | 133 | 137.890542799865 | -18.4354269737287 | -4.890542799865 | -1.14202126398744 |
| 23 | 114 | 118.554401682262 | -19.0706502658849 | -4.55440168226249 | -0.050066709924442 |
| 24 | 140 | 126.410420919506 | -0.0991657734377758 | 13.5895790804942 | 1.49570948390091 |
| 25 | 145 | 144.556714469257 | 12.7565725968601 | 0.443285530742963 | 1.01622747683117 |
| 26 | 150 | 153.059876570572 | 9.75587649095291 | -3.05987657057193 | -0.236842151943068 |
| 27 | 178 | 168.05458108911 | 13.4122461570312 | 9.9454189108904 | 0.287576590955838 |
| 28 | 163 | 166.17934858911 | 2.76495711920435 | -3.17934858911 | -0.843937003304184 |
| 29 | 172 | 180.70190683073 | 10.9918313778637 | -8.70190683072951 | 0.649400465818625 |
| 30 | 178 | 182.663270455662 | 4.69351439923226 | -4.66327045566178 | -0.495508871167014 |
| 31 | 199 | 191.572781764156 | 7.62913390201059 | 7.42721823584371 | 0.231380104418001 |
| 32 | 199 | 196.307187088371 | 5.61137262091534 | 2.69281291162853 | -0.159076919041117 |
| 33 | 184 | 184.83437030112 | -6.30429133357327 | -0.834370301120275 | -0.939119926672111 |
| 34 | 162 | 167.362943232861 | -14.0929331202267 | -5.3629432328611 | -0.613904717830503 |
| 35 | 146 | 156.883809122958 | -11.5736794686823 | -10.8838091229576 | 0.198561376281031 |
| 36 | 166 | 155.255957044135 | -4.64475389945549 | 10.7440429558648 | 0.546454173466747 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.813390254176 | 5.95357172248071 | 5.18660974582392 | 0.836837152975884 |
| 38 | 180 | 181.919671488237 | 13.0291193236673 | -1.91967148823709 | 0.557592797936853 |
| 39 | 193 | 182.266819951463 | 4.23629380564928 | 10.7331800485368 | -0.692294863734682 |
| 40 | 181 | 187.090472471255 | 4.64303187379611 | -6.09047247125498 | 0.0321419703136916 |
| 41 | 183 | 190.410473228488 | 3.72421741474961 | -7.41047322848768 | -0.0725304626194105 |
| 42 | 218 | 218.899635098888 | 20.9062896084532 | -0.899635098887581 | 1.35283025906158 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.041136013988 | 12.064760964938 | 2.95886398601216 | -0.696554780281793 |
| 44 | 242 | 234.341612239828 | 8.76358187181594 | 7.65838776017204 | -0.260227647648023 |
| 45 | 209 | 213.332056187921 | -11.8793705741387 | -4.33205618792101 | -1.62704141284709 |
| 46 | 191 | 196.521087096908 | -15.2988638590686 | -5.52108709690831 | -0.269515334880418 |
| 47 | 172 | 184.659552760135 | -12.9163871208184 | -12.6595527601348 | 0.187794433050954 |
| 48 | 194 | 184.923152180731 | -3.78282915581101 | 9.07684781926931 | 0.72034236539724 |
| 49 | 196 | 191.218741834088 | 3.20563282854757 | 4.78125816591178 | 0.551346850186363 |
| 50 | 196 | 193.579366278097 | 2.62011524885685 | 2.42063372190328 | -0.0461304384197937 |
| 51 | 236 | 218.307132971033 | 17.8926391224455 | 17.692867028967 | 1.20301532999277 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.229495114097 | 21.3648401161219 | -6.22949511409743 | 0.27407012042129 |
| 53 | 229 | 249.142329335178 | 12.0615492149358 | -20.1423293351781 | -0.734159674978176 |
| 54 | 243 | 245.706059132061 | 1.34448613471282 | -2.70605913206141 | -0.844275837264741 |
| 55 | 264 | 257.065261735743 | 8.26126065368803 | 6.93473826425652 | 0.544865211413225 |
| 56 | 272 | 257.42324374484 | 2.80342293969538 | 14.5767562551599 | -0.430158969507373 |
| 57 | 237 | 242.918319305846 | -9.15456155333017 | -5.91831930584605 | -0.942527672228797 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.717620733652 | -18.8597764320249 | -8.71762073365223 | -0.764957962872829 |
| 59 | 180 | 196.554400975934 | -21.8326826502407 | -16.5544009759339 | -0.234354661144269 |
| 60 | 201 | 189.552399902156 | -11.5865147745941 | 11.447600097844 | 0.808018182954169 |
| 61 | 204 | 194.894776257619 | 0.113970768590061 | 9.10522374238076 | 0.922657387795957 |
| 62 | 188 | 193.968010564091 | -0.604799769524957 | -5.96801056409073 | -0.0566276515881021 |
| 63 | 235 | 213.769823988759 | 13.4610174684654 | 21.2301760112412 | 1.1082094535302 |
| 64 | 227 | 229.318245172227 | 14.8991853257104 | -2.31824517222689 | 0.113458526444923 |
| 65 | 234 | 249.227765939181 | 18.3554249399986 | -15.2277659391807 | 0.272673301004282 |
| 66 | 264 | 270.882710425101 | 20.631976172727 | -6.88271042510114 | 0.179400027544368 |
| 67 | 302 | 293.373612268025 | 21.9134546307027 | 8.62638773197489 | 0.100953059647811 |
| 68 | 293 | 281.873203067677 | -1.11232881555958 | 11.1267969323228 | -1.81455031770095 |
| 69 | 259 | 262.838544169631 | -13.4650239808577 | -3.83854416963136 | -0.973630071911611 |
| 70 | 229 | 237.991720229496 | -21.3106164699838 | -8.99172022949582 | -0.618420448730163 |
| 71 | 203 | 221.812543561086 | -17.7735211264472 | -18.8125435610859 | 0.278850501703136 |
| 72 | 229 | 217.879015569311 | -8.23165708957424 | 11.1209844306893 | 0.752400014323261 |
| 73 | 242 | 227.484978045959 | 4.06916040540531 | 14.5150219540408 | 0.969739555139664 |
| 74 | 233 | 242.250760635491 | 11.4403322933331 | -9.25076063549065 | 0.580745778078939 |
| 75 | 267 | 248.062639849332 | 7.56707640031227 | 18.9373601506681 | -0.30520038121961 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.031042736762 | 17.4745677291815 | -1.03104273676223 | 0.78139772175977 |
| 77 | 270 | 289.244358852557 | 18.6718154324315 | -19.2443588525567 | 0.0944370617605532 |
| 78 | 315 | 320.691007577668 | 27.470874916212 | -5.69100757766754 | 0.693514253362219 |
| 79 | 364 | 346.458231867108 | 26.2981476174391 | 17.5417681328923 | -0.0923937528269688 |
| 80 | 347 | 338.399553188388 | 2.65973800356881 | 8.60044681161208 | -1.86269975713731 |
| 81 | 312 | 316.24124639317 | -14.415251888555 | -4.24124639317021 | -1.34581032654534 |
| 82 | 274 | 286.80883793876 | -24.7480944710979 | -12.8088379387598 | -0.81452209994208 |
| 83 | 237 | 259.835952941152 | -26.2790742204581 | -22.8359529411515 | -0.120702723208376 |
| 84 | 278 | 264.010296365022 | -5.31729681239534 | 13.989703634978 | 1.65275197413136 |
| 85 | 284 | 269.668371894407 | 2.23809422487525 | 14.3316281055931 | 0.595542823209053 |
| 86 | 277 | 281.221902607136 | 8.64661795642061 | -4.22190260713575 | 0.504919150900876 |
| 87 | 317 | 299.733716678056 | 15.4262943665582 | 17.2662833219436 | 0.534254328243663 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.164952330191 | 16.1167835042078 | -3.16495233019142 | 0.054449922606075 |
| 89 | 318 | 341.787807149694 | 22.6527975472972 | -23.7878071496939 | 0.515484782326645 |
| 90 | 374 | 378.081219170973 | 32.0346751226746 | -4.08121917097309 | 0.739517396003632 |
| 91 | 413 | 390.981709455265 | 18.8801436027836 | 22.0182905447354 | -1.03646643981876 |
| 92 | 405 | 391.716960295733 | 6.41231248038894 | 13.2830397042671 | -0.982429979657646 |
| 93 | 355 | 361.647517361988 | -18.6508164289051 | -6.64751736198769 | -1.9753764080666 |
| 94 | 306 | 321.631710761645 | -33.3296004809057 | -15.631710761645 | -1.15715372687448 |
| 95 | 271 | 299.208980541148 | -25.834602592937 | -28.2089805411476 | 0.590926046828104 |
| 96 | 306 | 290.647640087987 | -13.9614995944712 | 15.3523599120133 | 0.936088869596512 |
| 97 | 315 | 297.700265205793 | 0.483267388466637 | 17.2997347942071 | 1.13849103083189 |
| 98 | 301 | 305.766996241677 | 5.69289596665364 | -4.76699624167692 | 0.410472450646984 |
| 99 | 356 | 333.322142759837 | 20.6993539185342 | 22.6778572401629 | 1.18259468863633 |
| 100 | 348 | 356.383501122532 | 22.3204228710556 | -8.38350112253241 | 0.127820306171329 |
| 101 | 355 | 384.088009356958 | 26.0176014489312 | -29.088009356958 | 0.291563758013422 |
| 102 | 422 | 420.362726142965 | 33.0633149426007 | 1.6372738570355 | 0.555397475861735 |
| 103 | 465 | 441.582412872772 | 24.930468451421 | 23.4175871272276 | -0.64083991788088 |
| 104 | 467 | 445.923304437273 | 10.7993926154683 | 21.0766955627274 | -1.11347790992398 |
| 105 | 404 | 413.091335023532 | -19.1376680878929 | -9.09133502353194 | -2.35948278733411 |
| 106 | 347 | 369.497689668967 | -35.9184617211431 | -22.4976896689665 | -1.32289016152994 |
| 107 | 305 | 336.359425128256 | -34.0103336465329 | -31.3594251282564 | 0.150444295436164 |
| 108 | 336 | 321.234328010385 | -21.0453295642911 | 14.7656719896146 | 1.02212992284577 |
| 109 | 340 | 319.887574824529 | -7.52237982521736 | 20.1124251754713 | 1.0657852510446 |
| 110 | 318 | 325.785099237737 | 1.68521517885269 | -7.78509923773677 | 0.725496513712297 |
| 111 | 362 | 337.59254025786 | 8.62555396766145 | 24.4074597421402 | 0.546953653776878 |
| 112 | 348 | 357.240232784489 | 16.1821125098097 | -9.24023278448929 | 0.595791716641232 |
| 113 | 363 | 393.310811458271 | 29.8234819900294 | -30.310811458271 | 1.07570036772012 |
| 114 | 435 | 431.338508661399 | 35.4524342752377 | 3.66149133860063 | 0.443727055621411 |
| 115 | 491 | 463.215773842062 | 33.0001127727789 | 27.7842261579382 | -0.193243460619358 |
| 116 | 505 | 474.716420396571 | 18.2605075435801 | 30.2835796034294 | -1.16143089472579 |
| 117 | 404 | 421.551172758561 | -30.6918025935199 | -17.5511727585607 | -3.85812344015005 |
| 118 | 359 | 381.045710682761 | -37.4178157101189 | -22.0457106827608 | -0.530240878837383 |
| 119 | 310 | 346.097528477625 | -35.724751733376 | -36.0975284776254 | 0.133488094238204 |
| 120 | 337 | 323.990934397518 | -26.3863186697926 | 13.0090656024819 | 0.736195550056075 |
| 121 | 360 | 333.613484673439 | -1.69536858977234 | 26.3865153265606 | 1.94591942498617 |
| 122 | 342 | 348.340460691376 | 9.55953751743647 | -6.34046069137614 | 0.886832352224761 |
| 123 | 406 | 379.535573873965 | 24.3788306309989 | 26.4644261260351 | 1.16789989589757 |
| 124 | 396 | 411.735082295535 | 29.7351664406265 | -15.7350822955352 | 0.422297284444587 |
| 125 | 420 | 453.440291928443 | 37.9365984731884 | -33.4402919284427 | 0.646695250028174 |
| 126 | 472 | 475.781853878023 | 27.2483815234519 | -3.78185387802268 | -0.842552139799802 |
| 127 | 548 | 510.955897622766 | 32.6792177670154 | 37.0441023772336 | 0.427966067503413 |
| 128 | 559 | 513.663292442705 | 12.1518510763985 | 45.3367075572945 | -1.61750240641382 |
| 129 | 463 | 484.876511571505 | -15.8768941339203 | -21.8765115715048 | -2.20904077312388 |
| 130 | 407 | 434.840685476321 | -39.2640002636063 | -27.840685476321 | -1.84370688682264 |
| 131 | 362 | 399.140217891199 | -36.8235520057992 | -37.1402178911987 | 0.192413579730289 |
| 132 | 405 | 394.18174171966 | -14.9955789508161 | 10.8182582803401 | 1.72076562082904 |
| 133 | 417 | 392.714811910559 | -5.7290270942735 | 24.2851880894415 | 0.730297448608248 |
| 134 | 391 | 400.377184480351 | 3.43918811602129 | -9.37718448035131 | 0.722426991459019 |
| 135 | 419 | 397.703335515836 | -0.743936331484617 | 21.2966644841645 | -0.329674097732742 |
| 136 | 461 | 463.863961949144 | 45.0355907013831 | -2.8639619491437 | 3.60916432230739 |
| 137 | 472 | 506.973754757327 | 43.7174072302282 | -34.9737547573275 | -0.10393616369759 |
| 138 | 535 | 544.916092641372 | 39.7633948605285 | -9.91609264137195 | -0.311694501591667 |
| 139 | 622 | 578.095081226431 | 35.2560039913714 | 43.9049187735687 | -0.355205221579896 |
| 140 | 606 | 560.043257323749 | -1.21956357343435 | 45.9567426762509 | -2.87421693401565 |
| 141 | 508 | 524.076188761231 | -24.9870483288102 | -16.0761887612305 | -1.87319020365088 |
| 142 | 461 | 490.500755209164 | -30.8615145876391 | -29.5007552091642 | -0.463106512522924 |
| 143 | 390 | 441.011228219402 | -43.606461503922 | -51.0112282194017 | -1.00484343614055 |
| 144 | 432 | 417.850759735825 | -29.614350939417 | 14.1492402641755 | 1.10301869439863 |
