Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999956701083093 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.0324 | 0.0266 | 0.0058 |
3 | 0.0305 | 0.0323997488662819 | -0.00189974886628194 |
4 | 0.0298 | 0.0305000822570683 | -0.000700082257068305 |
5 | 0.0201 | 0.0298000303128035 | -0.00970003031280348 |
6 | 0.0174 | 0.0201004200008065 | -0.00270042000080651 |
7 | 0.0118 | 0.0174001169252612 | -0.00560011692526123 |
8 | 0.014 | 0.0118002424789974 | 0.00219975752100258 |
9 | 0.0128 | 0.0139999047528819 | -0.00119990475288188 |
10 | 0.0134 | 0.0128000519545762 | 0.000599948045423808 |
11 | 0.0111 | 0.0133999740228994 | -0.00229997402289943 |
12 | 0.0094 | 0.0111000995863841 | -0.00170009958638411 |
13 | 0.0121 | 0.00940007361247073 | 0.00269992638752927 |
14 | 0.0092 | 0.0120998830961117 | -0.00289988309611169 |
15 | 0.0134 | 0.00920012556179722 | 0.00419987443820278 |
16 | 0.0135 | 0.0133998181499857 | 0.000100181850014319 |
17 | 0.0147 | 0.0134999956622344 | 0.0012000043377656 |
18 | 0.0111 | 0.0146999480411119 | -0.00359994804111189 |
19 | 0.016 | 0.0111001558738511 | 0.0048998441261489 |
20 | 0.0147 | 0.0159997878420563 | -0.00129978784205633 |
21 | 0.0164 | 0.0147000562794058 | 0.00169994372059423 |
22 | 0.0167 | 0.0163999263942781 | 0.000300073605721901 |
23 | 0.0156 | 0.0166999870071379 | -0.00109998700713788 |
24 | 0.0172 | 0.015600047628246 | 0.00159995237175398 |
25 | 0.016 | 0.0171999307237952 | -0.0011999307237952 |
26 | 0.0156 | 0.0160000519557007 | -0.000400051955700705 |
27 | 0.0131 | 0.0156000173218164 | -0.00250001732181639 |
28 | 0.011 | 0.0131001082480423 | -0.00210010824804228 |
29 | 0.0158 | 0.0110000909324125 | 0.00479990906758748 |
30 | 0.0188 | 0.0157997921691361 | 0.00300020783086388 |
31 | 0.0161 | 0.0187998700942504 | -0.00269987009425043 |
32 | 0.0173 | 0.0161001169014509 | 0.00119988309854913 |
33 | 0.0163 | 0.0172999480463614 | -0.000999948046361419 |
34 | 0.0143 | 0.0163000432966674 | -0.00200004329666737 |
35 | 0.0209 | 0.0143000865997085 | 0.00659991340029149 |
36 | 0.0189 | 0.0208997142308981 | -0.00199971423089809 |
37 | 0.0172 | 0.0189000865854603 | -0.00170008658546032 |
38 | 0.0178 | 0.0172000736119078 | 0.000599926388092201 |
39 | 0.02 | 0.0177999740238372 | 0.00220002597616283 |
40 | 0.0252 | 0.0199999047412581 | 0.00520009525874194 |
41 | 0.0209 | 0.0251997748415075 | -0.00429977484150748 |
42 | 0.0213 | 0.0209001861755936 | 0.00039981382440642 |
43 | 0.0232 | 0.0212999826884944 | 0.00190001731150556 |
44 | 0.0242 | 0.0231999177313083 | 0.00100008226869169 |
45 | 0.0241 | 0.0241999566975209 | -9.99566975209455e-05 |
46 | 0.0225 | 0.0241000043280167 | -0.00160000432801674 |
47 | 0.0172 | 0.0225000692784544 | -0.00530006927845445 |
48 | 0.0204 | 0.0172002294872593 | 0.00319977051274071 |
49 | 0.0233 | 0.0203998614534024 | 0.00290013854659755 |
50 | 0.0201 | 0.0232998744271421 | -0.00319987442714205 |
51 | 0.0196 | 0.0201001385510969 | -0.000500138551096933 |
52 | 0.0133 | 0.0196000216554576 | -0.00630002165545757 |
53 | 0.0173 | 0.0133002727841142 | 0.00399972721588583 |
54 | 0.0187 | 0.0172998268161436 | 0.00140017318385637 |
55 | 0.0168 | 0.0186999393740177 | -0.00189993937401766 |
56 | 0.0158 | 0.0168000822653171 | -0.00100008226531708 |
57 | 0.0169 | 0.0158000433024789 | 0.00109995669752109 |
58 | 0.0178 | 0.0168999523730664 | 0.000900047626933648 |
59 | 0.0191 | 0.0177999610289126 | 0.00130003897108741 |
60 | 0.0185 | 0.0190999437097206 | -0.000599943709720614 |
61 | 0.0186 | 0.0185000259769128 | 9.99740230871633e-05 |
62 | 0.0204 | 0.0185999956712331 | 0.00180000432876692 |
63 | 0.0208 | 0.0203999220617621 | 0.000400077938237861 |
64 | 0.0194 | 0.0207999826770586 | -0.00139998267705859 |
65 | 0.0191 | 0.0194000606177336 | -0.000300060617733605 |
66 | 0.0134 | 0.0191000129922998 | -0.00570001299229975 |
67 | 0.013 | 0.0134002468043889 | -0.000400246804388923 |
68 | 0.0138 | 0.0130000173302531 | 0.000799982669746875 |
69 | 0.0124 | 0.0137999653616169 | -0.00139996536161686 |
70 | 0.013 | 0.0124000606169839 | 0.000599939383016135 |
71 | 0.0179 | 0.0129999740232745 | 0.00490002597672549 |
72 | 0.0224 | 0.0178997878341824 | 0.00450021216581761 |
73 | 0.0264 | 0.0223998051456874 | 0.00400019485431263 |
74 | 0.0279 | 0.0263998267958954 | 0.00150017320410461 |
75 | 0.0308 | 0.0278999350441251 | 0.00290006495587491 |
76 | 0.0388 | 0.0307998744303285 | 0.00800012556967155 |
77 | 0.037 | 0.0387996536032277 | -0.00179965360322772 |
78 | 0.0461 | 0.0370000779230518 | 0.00909992207694817 |
79 | 0.0507 | 0.0460996059832301 | 0.00460039401676987 |
80 | 0.0522 | 0.0506998008079217 | 0.00150019919207827 |
81 | 0.0493 | 0.0521999350429998 | -0.00289993504299985 |
82 | 0.0515 | 0.0493001255640465 | 0.00219987443595354 |
83 | 0.048 | 0.0514999047478196 | -0.00349990474781959 |
84 | 0.039 | 0.0480001515420849 | -0.00900015154208486 |
85 | 0.0354 | 0.0390003896968138 | -0.00360038969681377 |
86 | 0.0334 | 0.0354001558929743 | -0.00200015589297432 |
87 | 0.028 | 0.0334000866045838 | -0.00540008660458381 |
88 | 0.016 | 0.0280002338179012 | -0.0120002338179012 |
89 | 0.0153 | 0.0160005195971269 | -0.000700519597126947 |
90 | 0.0069 | 0.0153000303317398 | -0.00840003033173983 |
91 | -0.001 | 0.00690036371221535 | -0.00790036371221535 |
92 | -0.0066 | -0.00099965792280809 | -0.00560034207719191 |
93 | -0.002 | -0.00659975751125375 | 0.00459975751125375 |
94 | -0.0062 | -0.00200019916451827 | -0.00419980083548173 |
95 | -0.0058 | -0.0061998181531726 | 0.000399818153172599 |
96 | -0.0031 | -0.00580001731169299 | 0.00270001731169299 |
97 | -0.0025 | -0.00310011690782523 | 0.000600116907825226 |
98 | -9e-04 | -0.00250002598441213 | 0.00160002598441213 |
99 | 0.0013 | -0.000900069279392148 | 0.00220006927939215 |
100 | 0.0094 | 0.00129990473938308 | 0.00810009526061692 |
101 | 0.0105 | 0.00939964927464837 | 0.00110035072535163 |
102 | 0.0158 | 0.0104999523560054 | 0.00530004764399463 |
103 | 0.0202 | 0.0157997705136775 | 0.00440022948632254 |
104 | 0.0216 | 0.0201998094748291 | 0.0014001905251709 |
105 | 0.0206 | 0.0215999393732668 | -0.000999939373266798 |
106 | 0.0256 | 0.0206000432962918 | 0.00499995670370816 |
107 | 0.0254 | 0.0255997835072901 | -0.000199783507290149 |
108 | 0.0253 | 0.0254000086504095 | -0.000100008650409482 |
109 | 0.026 | 0.0253000043302662 | 0.000699995669733756 |
110 | 0.0272 | 0.0259999696909457 | 0.00120003030905434 |
111 | 0.0281 | 0.0271999480399874 | 0.000900051960012638 |
112 | 0.0292 | 0.028099961028725 | 0.00110003897127503 |
113 | 0.0287 | 0.029199952369504 | -0.000499952369503988 |
114 | 0.0289 | 0.0287000216473961 | 0.000199978352603894 |
115 | 0.0327 | 0.0288999913411539 | 0.00380000865884608 |
116 | 0.0333 | 0.0326998354637408 | 0.000600164536259169 |
117 | 0.0314 | 0.0332999740135256 | -0.00189997401352562 |
118 | 0.0303 | 0.0314000822668169 | -0.00110008226681693 |
119 | 0.0309 | 0.0303000476323707 | 0.000599952367629338 |
120 | 0.0339 | 0.0308999740227123 | 0.00300002597728771 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
121 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0268386802948971 | 0.0409610599093519 |
122 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0239140559000626 | 0.0438856843041864 |
123 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0216698836318741 | 0.0461298565723749 |
124 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0197779490979935 | 0.0480217911062555 |
125 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0181111166164523 | 0.0496886235877966 |
126 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0166041821882041 | 0.0511955580160449 |
127 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0152184112672224 | 0.0525813289370266 |
128 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0139285659888586 | 0.0538711742153903 |
129 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0127171159901362 | 0.0550826242141128 |
130 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0115712974752555 | 0.0562284427289935 |
131 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.0104814747826801 | 0.0573182654215688 |
132 | 0.0338998701021245 | 0.00944016194519462 | 0.0583595782590544 |