Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999937777962665 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
3 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
4 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
5 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
6 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
7 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
8 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
9 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
10 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
11 | 0.7 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
12 | 0.7 | 0.700000622220373 | -6.22220373336368e-07 |
13 | 0.68 | 0.700000000038716 | -0.0200000000387157 |
14 | 0.68 | 0.680001244440749 | -1.24444074911523e-06 |
15 | 0.69 | 0.680000000077432 | 0.00999999992256828 |
16 | 0.69 | 0.689999377779631 | 6.22220368562409e-07 |
17 | 0.7 | 0.689999999961284 | 0.0100000000387158 |
18 | 0.7 | 0.699999377779624 | 6.22220375778859e-07 |
19 | 0.7 | 0.699999999961284 | 3.87158083370309e-11 |
20 | 0.7 | 0.699999999999998 | 2.44249065417534e-15 |
21 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
22 | 0.71 | 0.7 | 0.01 |
23 | 0.71 | 0.709999377779627 | 6.22220373336368e-07 |
24 | 0.71 | 0.709999999961284 | 3.87158083370309e-11 |
25 | 0.71 | 0.709999999999998 | 2.44249065417534e-15 |
26 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
27 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
28 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
29 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
30 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
31 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.05 |
32 | 0.77 | 0.759996888898133 | 0.0100031111018667 |
33 | 0.78 | 0.769999377586048 | 0.0100006224139525 |
34 | 0.85 | 0.779999377740899 | 0.0700006222591012 |
35 | 0.89 | 0.849995644418668 | 0.0400043555813316 |
36 | 0.9 | 0.889997510847493 | 0.0100024891525066 |
37 | 0.91 | 0.899999377624747 | 0.0100006223752535 |
38 | 0.91 | 0.909999377740901 | 6.22259098803646e-07 |
39 | 0.91 | 0.909999999961282 | 3.87182508276851e-11 |
40 | 0.9 | 0.909999999999998 | -0.00999999999999757 |
41 | 0.89 | 0.900000622220373 | -0.0100006222203733 |
42 | 0.88 | 0.890000622259089 | -0.0100006222590892 |
43 | 0.87 | 0.880000622259092 | -0.0100006222590916 |
44 | 0.86 | 0.870000622259092 | -0.0100006222590916 |
45 | 0.87 | 0.860000622259092 | 0.00999937774090842 |
46 | 0.87 | 0.869999377818345 | 6.22181655085541e-07 |
47 | 0.87 | 0.869999999961287 | 3.87133658463767e-11 |
48 | 0.85 | 0.869999999999998 | -0.0199999999999976 |
49 | 0.84 | 0.850001244440747 | -0.0100012444407467 |
50 | 0.84 | 0.840000622297805 | -6.22297804953043e-07 |
51 | 0.84 | 0.840000000038721 | -3.87205822960368e-11 |
52 | 0.84 | 0.840000000000002 | -2.44249065417534e-15 |
53 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0 |
54 | 0.82 | 0.84 | -0.02 |
55 | 0.87 | 0.820001244440747 | 0.0499987555592534 |
56 | 0.92 | 0.869996888975565 | 0.0500031110244351 |
57 | 0.92 | 0.919996888704559 | 3.11129544094957e-06 |
58 | 0.92 | 0.919999999806409 | 1.93591143116123e-10 |
59 | 0.93 | 0.919999999999988 | 0.010000000000012 |
60 | 0.94 | 0.929999377779627 | 0.0100006222203732 |
61 | 0.87 | 0.939999377740911 | -0.0699993777409108 |
62 | 0.84 | 0.870004355503895 | -0.0300043555038952 |
63 | 0.83 | 0.840001866932128 | -0.0100018669321283 |
64 | 0.81 | 0.830000622336538 | -0.0200006223365375 |
65 | 0.81 | 0.81000124447947 | -1.24447946969752e-06 |
66 | 0.81 | 0.810000000077434 | -7.7434059164716e-11 |
67 | 0.8 | 0.810000000000005 | -0.0100000000000048 |
68 | 0.8 | 0.800000622220373 | -6.22220373336368e-07 |
69 | 0.8 | 0.800000000038716 | -3.87158083370309e-11 |
70 | 0.8 | 0.800000000000002 | -2.44249065417534e-15 |
71 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
72 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.8 | 0.764328523467458 | 0.835671476532542 |
74 | 0.8 | 0.749554483533622 | 0.850445516466378 |
75 | 0.8 | 0.738217753155882 | 0.861782246844118 |
76 | 0.8 | 0.728660376236937 | 0.871339623763063 |
77 | 0.8 | 0.720240124045964 | 0.879759875954036 |
78 | 0.8 | 0.712627614741549 | 0.887372385258451 |
79 | 0.8 | 0.705627177644731 | 0.894372822355269 |
80 | 0.8 | 0.699111321285057 | 0.900888678714943 |
81 | 0.8 | 0.692991489187099 | 0.907008510812902 |
82 | 0.8 | 0.687203203591845 | 0.912796796408155 |
83 | 0.8 | 0.681697788805574 | 0.918302211194426 |
84 | 0.8 | 0.676437428535019 | 0.923562571464981 |