| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.1963 | 0.2219 | -0.0543 | -0.1794 | -0.1143 | -0.5556 |
| (p-val) | (0.6559 ) | (0.0292 ) | (0.9062 ) | (0.1063 ) | (0.192 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.1449 | 0.2317 | 0 | -0.1792 | -0.114 | -0.5569 |
| (p-val) | (0.0056 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0.1054 ) | (0.1923 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.1371 | 0.2435 | 0 | -0.0797 | 0 | -0.6535 |
| (p-val) | (0.008 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0.2973 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | 0.135 | 0.2464 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6953 |
| (p-val) | (0.0089 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -0.535784830976893 |
| 1.76903397227865 |
| 5.14628253013313 |
| 9.49265200355335 |
| 48.0757459969738 |
| -5.06528498961868 |
| 20.7584381737384 |
| -26.5568571300198 |
| -16.8988462782495 |
| 44.4013025873562 |
| -42.7178616188292 |
| -7.6046343705088 |
| 24.7143880979605 |
| -30.843319045089 |
| -31.1643180595545 |
| -32.4428235132068 |
| -16.043978357463 |
| 2.40363873297069 |
| -32.5951123990017 |
| -28.793772531391 |
| 26.8164130088406 |
| -25.6849589408358 |
| 25.9796571080212 |
| -5.07605047310217 |
| -65.1521495947919 |
| -34.7982371819217 |
| 23.5996906930481 |
| 5.70418786667835 |
| -0.151767940317036 |
| -0.290378098345003 |
| -12.5624234835455 |
| 20.2266249698893 |
| 28.7044304637456 |
| -3.2056622588414 |
| 4.39937534659601 |
| -33.8742686598118 |
| -18.777737931679 |
| -1.22402049034109 |
| -1.72395530801212 |
| 24.5398041176846 |
| 12.2257481743511 |
| -18.2527616473361 |
| 2.89326439374012 |
| 26.7848754017316 |
| -11.9243674405096 |
| -10.9010323569902 |
| -2.47663537622365 |
| -5.02404132762478 |
| 3.63602627104891 |
| -29.1234513027972 |
| 17.7788338485692 |
| 30.7382194085083 |
| -14.8383568430113 |
| -18.6503909453147 |
| 0.145804331456799 |
| 17.3503595238599 |
| 21.6610148888475 |
| 8.86165761812378 |
| 21.0871971153439 |
| 28.2567763538243 |
| 50.7247607334886 |
| 19.6870387956374 |
| 9.31026529327663 |
| -8.58112936619393 |
| -10.4056201839713 |
| -27.2704222277366 |
| 3.2859572431396 |
| 14.0389278770537 |
| 1.89952483260812 |
| -36.2758718327419 |
| -0.559609456639805 |
| -9.7949959377219 |
| -4.3769230756925 |
| -17.7030834216455 |
| -6.60867563660563 |
| 14.8051720354668 |
| -27.9044534192279 |
| 1.5652823466917 |
| -16.024976388632 |
| 16.4239315994581 |
| -11.5878786907283 |
| 18.0459864755058 |
| 2.69788310062733 |
| -3.59338080945144 |
| -29.5675322418258 |
| -3.14406117652208 |
| 25.2046569197605 |
| -20.3477913473601 |
| 32.9065928605094 |
| 18.748848430057 |
| -24.4104892471743 |
| -32.604883239576 |
| -3.61178732066801 |
| 12.0439965547518 |
| 29.3551015010704 |
| -2.72090261484127 |
| -19.2438099235226 |
| -16.8799372255207 |
| -7.66028529093605 |
| 10.3942325198732 |
| 21.4753586627294 |
| 21.6114008778531 |
| -25.8554797650492 |
| -6.34672784342176 |
| 14.6502264057434 |
| 14.7866001570839 |
| 30.6062985181836 |
| 6.94023464636988 |
| 40.4509362472628 |
| 53.4787344624977 |
| -1.78205619025549 |
| -3.67951359322828 |
| -19.0815509144494 |
| 5.02229115021545 |
| 5.97739597740971 |
| -19.7534101622974 |
| -43.2839411569461 |
| -5.3187978517091 |
| -25.4529954282085 |
| 28.2020581400635 |
| -7.35727841311224 |
| -17.7582030972174 |
| -23.2668327065729 |
| -46.8985450900698 |
| 4.60337282203455 |
| 24.4938073768057 |
| -0.0894167363469146 |
| 8.20648203540893 |
| 5.12216481176799 |
| 18.57021975774 |
| 2.3058771605726 |
| -32.9871626986048 |
| -12.5892511982692 |
| -31.6654165993567 |
| 54.5593575364762 |
| -18.9454764177384 |
| -14.0400568593801 |
| 47.1473332974794 |
| -16.5698046774058 |
| 8.9478123803275 |
| -16.4609937292951 |
| 33.8648377176061 |
| 9.2003872577496 |
| 31.1289624416014 |
| 9.01529323007429 |
| 14.5687893975848 |
| -23.6105418898683 |
| -15.5372206222382 |
| 2.54721910018683 |
| 17.4907170629945 |
| -16.7186104578694 |
| -24.2798602908509 |
| -7.24693153018722 |
| -6.97498058934199 |
| -23.0880477948946 |
| -1.0282487286023 |
| -7.11048750323727 |
| -19.7532631620859 |
| -0.0748883951987563 |
| 7.27389010981082 |
| 30.3974478258777 |
| -33.347652329249 |
| -17.3800821379349 |
| 44.7726767603902 |
| -8.80525880357053 |
| -25.2655604761234 |
| 24.1784712836098 |
| -13.7923839729302 |
| 13.7297547763953 |
| 20.5006351175741 |
| -37.6508806806012 |
| 1.64465281617452 |
| 15.1939533291524 |
| 10.0938344249334 |
| -15.6373793727741 |
| -13.4181636086922 |
| 10.1268172950124 |
| 4.82628047665877 |
| 11.8459605274143 |
| -23.4412367893122 |
| -1.06481124240051 |
| -9.3267249799236 |
| -1.08399437769448 |
| 10.8874757041562 |
| -21.9468469603492 |
| 43.6235103487871 |
| -45.0012271710408 |
| 10.7284057078018 |
| 12.79746659283 |
| -0.130451952152958 |
| -27.3045708860367 |
| 4.12396240823972 |
| -15.2500150124336 |
| 19.4598642606457 |
| -21.4119587021847 |
| 22.8614865380575 |
| -11.1308182341244 |
| 18.1385240599144 |
| -16.6410192702149 |
| -5.19213267764322 |
| 3.61920514499317 |
| -3.51670901020345 |
| -12.9163478709701 |
| -13.8986630504489 |
| -17.4708894675947 |
| -15.992124551179 |
| 26.4551794709707 |
| 14.8901898374325 |
| 19.3873080921798 |
| 3.02768759224793 |
| -8.7393442383244 |
| -1.12049362927471 |
| -0.117355769233654 |
| 6.04001412290092 |
| -15.7537444243682 |
| 6.64251571667578 |
| -9.09564937923625 |
| -1.96304268827042 |
| 6.43794298919587 |
| 4.25793207736192 |
| -9.0283577729078 |
| 42.8760019882803 |
| 12.1252464495125 |
| -19.5294307137052 |
| 23.9583301428304 |
| 12.3156680537885 |
| -35.1272701203884 |
| -21.2696664459149 |
| -12.0628842814285 |
| 26.8579776504759 |
| -8.89306794486682 |
| -15.2686500179984 |
| -0.74995979815041 |
| 48.771101580622 |
| 5.04418414154849 |
| -31.2546807585302 |
| 8.13922854140066 |
| -1.76178330797422 |
| -8.40063166974397 |
| -11.3759090906409 |
| -1.23156783736944 |
| 1.2042236292775 |
| 11.1883200911526 |
| 13.4407481811129 |
| -13.0538309977548 |
| 6.24340716971526 |
| 26.3225338565802 |
| -5.70089842055033 |
| 23.4176610242604 |
| -10.7875527758078 |
| -29.6493947847487 |
| 3.63544391603635 |
| 35.7096772929491 |
| 27.0722935338354 |
| 7.74179441801332 |
| 3.3065555220022 |
| -5.30560188364578 |
| 19.8293487449645 |
| 19.4895777318455 |
| -5.66462878937472 |
| 13.7111366857855 |
| 0.432176554605127 |
| 25.6187628041619 |
| 5.80702630274991 |
| 12.9268532729038 |
| -18.8094612479499 |
| -10.6617626861724 |
| -16.8439761475778 |
| -7.19959128979126 |
| 4.59881898682605 |
| 18.4753306881762 |
| 2.75714356920745 |
| -20.8493504170184 |
| -19.2612052481709 |
| 20.570922673535 |
| -3.71716445866468 |
| 9.34079933936325 |
| -17.6920487229254 |
| 0.282780710100171 |
| -15.6000550703771 |
| -11.5268418994056 |
| 2.45322208737918 |
| 4.71093551228783 |
| -0.747657471474505 |
| -10.8720240825322 |
| -5.15363348206877 |
| -33.1092733985189 |
| -1.88675374488191 |
| -1.69643564360718 |
| 12.1289352267875 |
| -10.8487629660401 |
| 4.42844003168581 |
| -9.40630504020734 |
| -5.85987915750308 |
| -0.942332889732387 |
| -1.90340973291787 |
| 10.329443990337 |
| -25.5527503328062 |
| 23.4879231871282 |
| 12.4579953672968 |
| 23.1729726653318 |
| -3.03145701898758 |
| -22.2223306436755 |
| -5.8832240951219 |
| 18.4007181898971 |
| 14.2110504133912 |
| 8.92875458488969 |
| -11.6405367482212 |
| 40.2495539628274 |
| 1.74539418673394 |
| 41.9303686503475 |
| 40.4142332098069 |
| 115.312864583795 |
| -28.912923601311 |
| 0.519131292012153 |
| -19.0273754408539 |
| 0.562758779672345 |
| -15.610241338737 |
| -12.4343120314861 |
| -11.8776795996696 |
| -12.5002436047567 |
| 0.844933556449264 |
| -22.5899116564899 |
| -4.91822524408087 |
| -4.13095373462869 |
| -21.8240050316229 |
| -23.8100331665787 |
| -8.95917809565889 |
| -24.6994337889395 |
| 35.8657236269142 |
| 22.4770304202162 |
| 4.03655966038977 |
| -34.0667326636697 |
| 4.29015385237357 |
| 10.4161002153031 |
| -15.4465226006002 |
| -31.1435878263477 |
| 28.8663626073109 |
| -23.871227216927 |
| -49.9583288833138 |
| 4.78041794293965 |
| 28.6551580575108 |
| -29.5952751741205 |
| 17.8411657778917 |
| -16.8698451722489 |
| -0.586197656479925 |
| -3.65875659641111 |
| -47.7168811108488 |
| 5.75713702052684 |
| -12.6426986466299 |
| 14.2909648601011 |
| -10.3054161093803 |
| 13.7088308788342 |
| -31.809142071495 |
| 40.732918586246 |
| -17.5152459193213 |
| -2.61849115326816 |
| -7.46245914653196 |
| -1.88121643307853 |
| 24.4223848586479 |
