| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.2587 | 0.1164 | -0.0671 | -0.7971 | -0.1851 | 0.0216 | -0.3475 |
| (p-val) | (0.0127 ) | (0.1227 ) | (0.3092 ) | (0 ) | (0.3097 ) | (0.8341 ) | (0.0468 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.2574 | 0.1157 | -0.0677 | -0.7961 | -0.2167 | 0 | -0.3171 |
| (p-val) | (0.0128 ) | (0.1241 ) | (0.3026 ) | (0 ) | (0.0338 ) | (NA ) | (0.0016 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.2982 | 0.1332 | 0 | -0.8457 | -0.2188 | 0 | -0.3057 |
| (p-val) | (4e-04 ) | (0.058 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (0.0346 ) | (NA ) | (0.0022 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | 0.2237 | 0 | 0 | -0.7549 | -0.2633 | 0 | -0.2664 |
| (p-val) | (0.0178 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (0.0096 ) | (NA ) | (0.0105 ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -0.656990933343972 |
| 4.61808218473808 |
| -11.4263017891713 |
| 29.4620382828066 |
| 3.72466328750952 |
| -8.76227009325033 |
| 31.3672318821654 |
| 44.2744462478504 |
| 26.6861771275328 |
| -13.0966487041475 |
| -50.1504675592563 |
| -8.4943580298465 |
| -5.98603116196058 |
| -19.6770354975098 |
| -4.39011159648926 |
| -2.36656132893969 |
| -19.1504179856945 |
| 55.9554254200251 |
| 11.9016209025914 |
| 19.9951014662507 |
| 12.2868981338496 |
| 4.27487175837824 |
| -54.698359656732 |
| -17.7514197698862 |
| 7.77206631806027 |
| -19.9077054014667 |
| -11.5755495704973 |
| 4.18526692153476 |
| 8.8387301368519 |
| 1.91102962452912 |
| 107.831216450327 |
| -30.2896748789055 |
| 3.17326365524866 |
| 3.66120150624875 |
| -64.2761668277399 |
| -10.177876101399 |
| 5.42479581684195 |
| -23.8363277384117 |
| 41.3147000376104 |
| -9.17039052327146 |
| 39.9375208812449 |
| 47.2774761868046 |
| -18.1694973575618 |
| -14.9910371747949 |
| 29.2037108884316 |
| -27.1845008663402 |
| -12.8757345703579 |
| 5.93463241470508 |
| -3.28128908361297 |
| -6.40105107712333 |
| 3.01793136507954 |
| -33.3028431519423 |
| -24.9479910754706 |
| -13.5867805885001 |
| -25.5283597237332 |
| 15.8615781044328 |
| 26.7379030570632 |
| -5.18897750391652 |
| -4.89570987661133 |
| -8.53847967515325 |
| -36.0169599308262 |
| -10.8531663307452 |
| 73.284571012226 |
| -9.62553043472616 |
| 90.6293092946066 |
| 16.7336703812365 |
| 65.9473509016827 |
| 188.145475615412 |
| 32.0977670089277 |
| -76.0410425492689 |
| -38.1142550125321 |
| -117.879120213034 |
| 24.943521037171 |
| -5.38054463010785 |
| -40.6234055352097 |
| 57.5850433476406 |
| 74.0274943141993 |
| 31.8491919121464 |
| 78.5371007337999 |
| 139.147345846882 |
| 11.6236300404331 |
| 3.2783575599013 |
| -166.501979994641 |
| -87.7298536305348 |
| 13.7542319584685 |
| 25.5949692316182 |
| -15.2509584543682 |
| 0.0767946167357352 |
| -77.0858194609672 |
| 103.977036443423 |
| 31.1810068131805 |
| 9.24964057403925 |
| 34.4800021468036 |
| 71.6045646091383 |
| -111.575911695394 |
| -68.9534060627172 |
| -2.00481840056466 |
| 49.3643935691246 |
| -30.627987231422 |
| -9.91468555849304 |
| -39.9847063054785 |
| 59.0926252655152 |
| 29.8452478464981 |
| 83.1977133654352 |
| 80.7646984345121 |
| -79.4539964345832 |
| -81.1703794512673 |
| -9.58897962186132 |
| 7.97414292832104 |
| -112.568220083704 |
| 0.767879570934309 |
| 24.3313093887466 |
| -14.0401617227936 |
| 124.326127871063 |
| -40.0280624766656 |
| -11.6427164726611 |
| -60.6720566997844 |
| -12.9264155735568 |
| -51.9504734699666 |
| -48.3595373342663 |
| -77.0570482792421 |
| -78.1442838089351 |
| 21.5443815299001 |
| 70.0447226703943 |
| -61.3435572422359 |
| -94.4745065015076 |
| 49.9641557433105 |
| 58.4101364530709 |
| -6.79489283077686 |
| 48.5292838788972 |
| -7.61814340561318 |
| -58.9912836217598 |
| 85.5038670113413 |
| 36.0385245084679 |
| -11.0885027519255 |
| 29.3347234726818 |
| 100.526144669913 |
| -114.477690910056 |
| 39.5900683018999 |
| 74.5500785794449 |
| -9.45449832931692 |
| -26.2881838449418 |
| -11.0149991402369 |
| -24.6864901136839 |
| 47.3273280919597 |
| 24.0695090048939 |
| -18.8132171424096 |
| 53.9587350547906 |
| 46.7828812300588 |
| 90.9153121870857 |
| 42.9006395254216 |
| 159.599886296417 |
| -17.5634339006591 |
| 56.7893272823216 |
| -132.570642936257 |
| -80.8902676876358 |
| -19.5891220236278 |
| 29.4827261001042 |
| 30.8746933168054 |
| -64.4598156201494 |
| 8.79386227754977 |
| 111.745031622037 |
| 51.1176336447485 |
| 100.409140930492 |
| -8.18186750998099 |
| -89.1471402530977 |
| -88.2344473802579 |
| 28.0923934298737 |
| -40.1729823258251 |
| -145.510517314151 |
| 26.8329307441095 |
| 39.7745778370349 |
| 64.5553374754093 |
| 57.4497807607331 |
| -29.7328587043498 |
| -77.4714265480861 |
| 89.2484866186587 |
| 4.25980752356995 |
| -58.3420935599432 |
| -48.5309831504238 |
| -50.5347387815618 |
| 22.7999667829315 |
| 105.752312701048 |
| -22.58843466404 |
| -150.088809280228 |
| -45.4717355463418 |
| -68.1618425155326 |
| 51.433579768999 |
| 48.316969326475 |
| 36.4972040271874 |
| -15.5439325121733 |
| 3.95904508038777 |
| -73.854439908573 |
| -69.1896454812114 |
| 97.4312081776808 |
| -62.8378747387393 |
| -0.683636695063597 |
| 93.433224199841 |
| -65.6098723191127 |
| 27.9234794687144 |
| -38.0000010329902 |
| -70.4479876544371 |
| 106.203968957204 |
| -56.8622864152208 |
| 40.2536547435818 |
| 157.491873007074 |
| -31.0885626142482 |
| 9.69031112219565 |
| 292.169361044445 |
| -162.813381168051 |
| -61.1671464135517 |
| 108.832847333758 |
| 203.094878341968 |
| -9.47761816240326 |
| 18.2988914952151 |
| -94.2526944520642 |
| 150.486711737332 |
| -125.346564954622 |
| -61.2877455792195 |
| 116.188321588847 |
| 45.4934510570835 |
| 116.830435075914 |
| 143.487396887471 |
| 122.202320958456 |
| -79.4872417446849 |
| 136.570054491504 |
| -268.18588777178 |
| -162.713219853408 |
| -8.83731503626997 |
| -78.7208991000443 |
| -45.7562459306963 |
| 137.812812617758 |
| -56.9978591436986 |
| 185.30574038785 |
| 187.775735397703 |
| 60.3521286721169 |
| 90.5539616613054 |
| -133.130069837592 |
| -68.5228610203585 |
| -133.036864688418 |
| -130.174513646766 |
| -27.2292921030202 |
| 163.367345585395 |
| 48.6931354347794 |
| -196.8644298705 |
| 67.5119832719285 |
| -0.76969482993178 |
| 296.915106294398 |
| -224.688872278511 |
| -372.55197531116 |
| -16.335402061678 |
| -173.837421420457 |
| -53.7276014561376 |
| 103.854689282602 |
| 86.5631492727991 |
| 37.7052401232611 |
| -143.382170836558 |
| 219.368002226276 |
| -101.297852460191 |
| 117.069602801702 |
| 9.26986401852117 |
| 114.62810910344 |
| -217.173507737613 |
| 53.0768234559807 |
| 64.4996236755946 |
| -43.810631294011 |
| -140.014334174929 |
| -149.121774569949 |
| 184.639093537645 |
| -74.0040721968381 |
| 220.832948973213 |
| 242.00092549439 |
| -245.589286840943 |
| -19.7337040713672 |
| -111.095967156812 |
| 138.532895505704 |
| 12.4074583590576 |
| 17.4776466793872 |
| -260.454775529849 |
| 117.294510907712 |
| -61.2307626153305 |
| 88.4302167134899 |
| -71.3775547778353 |
| 171.630884964859 |
| 105.764069277064 |
| 33.8918293364678 |
| -119.888886037498 |
| -30.1707338541714 |
| 96.8368334443351 |
| -21.8327463145845 |
| 40.8365346145153 |
| 47.5541037907348 |
| 40.4863186025071 |
| -179.902305180696 |
| 16.9996558681711 |
| -47.6375634751911 |
| 166.750295033486 |
| -91.6493239946087 |
| -24.0248807231638 |
| -159.329958137387 |
| 132.493159915651 |
| -169.765284693922 |
| 98.4563948045842 |
| 185.382083841991 |
| -117.804270479629 |
| 139.985685094866 |
| 87.1308426238702 |
| 72.7585108097097 |
| -199.076332888521 |
| 69.0838285928292 |
| -41.2170151828509 |
| 60.756068525713 |
| -371.088451035866 |
| 132.316016740804 |
| 82.7908766497421 |
| -100.843270113561 |
| -88.2323807369536 |
| 33.0464319446179 |
| 115.984465134917 |
| 78.7820719962026 |
| 24.3466521632036 |
| -259.981957893154 |
| -198.337241072556 |
| 72.6236742037349 |
| 355.945302828037 |
| 14.1907267488681 |
| -64.63663426264 |
| -275.91343133516 |
| 180.735500347208 |
| 118.406582271007 |
| 55.1117916914224 |
| 165.159855305217 |
| -108.428894866753 |
| -548.537875400187 |
| 7.71556926885642 |
| -89.4907916347827 |
| -206.245911534621 |
| -94.9994523570804 |
| -243.823726758407 |
| -115.104832165188 |
| -70.9260997378442 |
| -426.310797149648 |
| -37.9597009614115 |
| -310.647407579092 |
| -7.47196592662283 |
| -99.4448076010192 |
| 75.1926363126274 |
| -38.8401002481728 |
| -67.883085789119 |
| -44.2614504290461 |
| 104.383198153033 |
| 133.893762176941 |
| 44.8615083395796 |
| 130.282880716463 |
| 96.7700423865272 |
| 172.877620336889 |
| -147.820840097652 |
| 226.076907721603 |
| -114.107523844283 |
| -117.695247838553 |
| -4.40662365829554 |
| -39.440592794728 |
| -1.15352733812375 |
| 45.3120471132719 |
| 279.42175386695 |
| -13.2191883716464 |
| -142.861740614826 |
| -196.894309965146 |
| 131.449211689029 |
