Free Statistics

of Irreproducible Research!

Author's title

Author*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Modulerwasp_structuraltimeseries.wasp
Title produced by softwareStructural Time Series Models
Date of computationMon, 12 Dec 2011 15:33:59 -0500
Cite this page as followsStatistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?v=date/2011/Dec/12/t13237220524wuxv32jecvke2l.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 03 May 2024 04:39:42 +0000
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209, Retrieved Fri, 03 May 2024 04:39:42 +0000
QR Codes:

Original text written by user:
IsPrivate?No (this computation is public)
User-defined keywords
Estimated Impact65
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
-       [Structural Time Series Models] [] [2011-12-12 20:33:59] [9fcdc23b96f67ca1860b0ed8ec932927] [Current]
Feedback Forum

Post a new message
Dataseries X:
112
118
132
125
121
135
148
148
136
119
104
118
115
126
141
135
125
149
170
170
158
133
114
140
145
150
178
163
172
178
199
199
184
162
146
166
171
180
193
181
183
218
230
242
209
191
172
194
196
196
236
235
229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340
318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432




Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Summary of computational transaction \tabularnewline
Raw Input & view raw input (R code)  \tabularnewline
Raw Output & view raw output of R engine  \tabularnewline
Computing time & 3 seconds \tabularnewline
R Server & 'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=0

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Summary of computational transaction[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Input[/C][C]view raw input (R code) [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Output[/C][C]view raw output of R engine [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Computing time[/C][C]3 seconds[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Server[/C][C]'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=0

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=0

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net







Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1112112000
2118116.6717884742744.781558019432251.328211525726470.423689145533091
3132130.37122981887411.09426472887991.62877018112550.528057668619185
4125129.1176102985061.83281044686008-4.11761029850581-0.74513936781324
5121122.165489201878-4.61408218022834-1.16548920187763-0.503341530143378
6135130.8404608673775.105147857103594.159539132623190.76553158883841
7148146.32550929666112.71848347556771.674490703339460.598975748033357
8148150.9166249700866.75475523181797-2.91662497008595-0.469036336838256
9136139.959858208077-6.23990721939744-3.95985820807689-1.02207413457878
10119120.927010214253-15.6242883130943-1.92701021425271-0.738098978659353
11104103.463937912199-16.9730838501750.536062087801168-0.106085169265786
12118111.3736832853431.279517838834466.62631671465731.43560037443354
13115116.0697034154573.77970058980921-1.06970341545720.197206414703247
14126126.4775840670248.64765558592602-0.4775840670237240.388807321609176
15141136.0495765071649.301046662026484.950423492836470.0511749864166898
16135137.8444196847823.99426055011487-2.84441968478192-0.423760310414785
17125132.08802259436-2.93092214925213-7.08802259435972-0.544014091520314
18149144.4154736738057.824860894260474.584526326194640.844465013059324
19170165.14026423804216.92110073685874.859735761958330.715965757988637
20170172.2060962835469.96209358109936-2.20609628354643-0.5473915657867
21158162.423952267825-3.98318321783517-4.42395226782502-1.09676543290355
22133137.870056338657-18.5114962510866-4.87005633865749-1.14274788357479
23114118.545310553121-19.0856817165541-4.54531055312075-0.0451609799632826
24140126.437300849885-0.056768013192983313.56269915011481.49708871622223
25145144.50709133007212.72959546860150.4929086699279581.00861920954692
26150152.8854198128899.65640428491834-2.8854198128892-0.242055102172594
27178167.97104322751813.449815062129910.02895677248160.297734368033722
28163166.467696851833.02342333728712-3.46769685183012-0.824704213257828
29172180.78234857457710.9328246378954-8.782348574576820.623007742259019
30178182.5115727336194.50670349560503-4.51157273361921-0.504507891676484
31199191.513311468987.64015407420647.486688531020420.246457697429335
32199196.3765300831775.702308656125352.62346991682338-0.152455668540902
33184184.905420529948-6.2890472626701-0.90542052994846-0.943103839077208
34162167.377283149418-14.1366677791541-5.37728314941756-0.617257179921411
35146156.863503961159-11.6082414562566-10.86350396115910.198866451034869
36166155.221269605134-4.6574694727784710.77873039486630.547026647529989
37171165.7486423285315.940622815223635.251357671468540.83506477370447
38180181.83978794220413.0225605341572-1.839787942203630.556925693535212
39193182.2623344801464.2768814137694110.7376655198544-0.687143931890773
40181187.201423668044.73596852246222-6.201423668039910.0362030679443897
41183190.4692065134583.71520131954946-7.46920651345804-0.080408127589576
42218218.87300772287720.8631806983735-0.8730077228766731.34730981541916
43230227.00087677486812.03224071217212.99912322513246-0.694269060940057
44242234.3793285020058.80399616568487.62067149799548-0.253945170214703
45209213.374922742308-11.8865837848151-4.37492274230777-1.62737469788978
46191196.5386448944-15.3224629953796-5.53864489440032-0.270239179220982
47172184.634865908038-12.9502630282094-12.63486590803810.186592135139733
48194184.871703097465-3.801596929236419.128296902534580.720020440639339
49196191.1582988762623.201434703073374.841701123738260.551339174536864
50196193.5384220282432.631703856145322.46157797175698-0.0447925611952752
51236218.33782912432117.962661786224117.66217087567911.20509099597849
52235241.28900895207421.4102638786735-6.289008952073660.271559583828035
53229249.1575018817912.0344171312933-20.1575018817897-0.73832725881025
54243245.685907898341.29985909571711-2.68590789834025-0.843875421260377
55264257.0736597145778.274878262246846.926340285423320.548304735173398
56272257.464275385322.8240900323688214.5357246146797-0.428704360451275
57237242.95206012456-9.16661245826492-5.95206012455965-0.94312463846166
58211219.717910555152-18.8974661391362-8.71791055515247-0.765370047453354
59180196.517768656737-21.8731513175244-16.5177686567366-0.234081466965488
60201189.505504339286-11.594715461189611.49449566071450.80886311006616
61204194.8482322970370.1246888411822969.151767702962630.922213835565996
62188193.924709691935-0.600047958119605-5.92470969193527-0.0569780277896207
63235213.79337022947413.524189589773221.20662977052651.11048206144802
64227229.36701404840614.9377829622963-2.367014048406490.111286437011303
65234249.26080866337718.3603618813125-15.26080866337720.26945012536904
66264270.88817107849720.6169679196902-6.88817107849680.177454318959077
67302293.39441394675821.92080634747498.605586053241570.102499490051036
68293281.894056121285-1.1356544032702411.1059438787151-1.81316636104391
69259262.864144000645-13.4827969078819-3.86414400064478-0.971152454590707
70229237.987998025549-21.3451248480736-8.98799802554894-0.618439130039766
71203221.776534266057-17.8025580599132-18.77653426605710.278695615816253
72229217.83133395417-8.2381076658837811.16866604583010.752599562783404
73242227.4461078352864.0869255881863414.55389216471420.969613430477432
74233242.22265879954811.4614658068697-9.222658799547780.579793650830936
75267248.0586805075937.5859828313982718.9413194924074-0.304736242385244
76269270.06274035310717.5160489371394-1.0627403531070.781538064972783
77270289.2680281122418.6805039861357-19.268028112240.0916575211182352
78315320.72511213255727.4905293504246-5.725112132557440.692919021024084
79364346.50754604642726.313440644783817.4924539535731-0.0925430367470634
80347338.4253932196662.62199038833968.57460678033424-1.86297272427899
81312316.251376113611-14.4569497372485-4.25137611361089-1.34330082547724
82274286.788003979009-24.793972123516-12.7880039790085-0.813141484254018
83237259.786022560842-26.3151003606872-22.7860225608421-0.119674264683424
84278263.971830020167-5.2972399486177714.02816997983341.65369873500406
85284269.6310482151592.2535427222198414.3689517848410.593932715736321
86277281.202263723248.67075563289534-4.202263723239590.504544372195241
87317299.7308950612815.452954808958717.26910493872030.533333516319354
88313316.1711981668416.1321142125022-3.171198166839790.0534442892691767
89318341.80760102236122.6742158800429-23.80760102236120.514881745871129
90374378.13289846916532.0737565351998-4.132898469164810.739353075257173
91413391.039471762918.881884187809821.9605282371004-1.03722960494736
92405391.7671611386226.3937230570421113.2328388613775-0.981972173597046
93355361.650640664844-18.717154079343-6.6506406648438-1.97499305144191
94306321.59211114219-33.3961938567126-15.5921111421904-1.15474555931164
95271299.153926765405-25.8576141823221-28.15392676540510.593114401351366
96306290.600191435491-13.950158600627715.39980856450930.936828390704866
97315297.6699152617970.51474316412381217.33008473820341.13768921771002
98301305.7441961582345.7137526633537-4.744196158233830.408777486948166
99356333.32473433693520.740138985668822.67526566306541.18168425406642
100348356.38028875014722.331017073623-8.38028875014670.125176903354863
101355384.1038953569726.0381952079956-29.10389535696980.291738768936356
102422420.4264004521633.11050054482021.573599547840150.556322867990407
103465441.65920466647424.945143102085823.3407953335259-0.64205262308191
104467445.99038451759910.78146177842321.0096154824007-1.11371038485077
105404413.091180244107-19.223204556117-9.09118024410742-2.35985669806968
106347369.442694309194-36.0018416594773-22.4426943091935-1.31994490184093
107305336.290824055655-34.0436240664922-31.29082405565480.154069458978262
108336321.17915063496-21.031945658251714.82084936503971.02365809199569
109340319.850400841152-7.4906190847398220.14959915884841.0649971188202
110318325.7568371738571.71163900537227-7.756837173856730.723556807504905
111362337.5806201396148.6528685335239424.41937986038640.54587772899519
112348357.24028175939116.2074123856426-9.240281759391320.594384474847501
113363393.34219281144129.8683089320385-30.34219281144091.07497978917962
114435431.40989910132635.50028542133453.590100898673530.443033392001812
115491463.31511856550233.031546076121927.6848814344985-0.194129270492053
116505474.80223004584518.244478793806830.1977699541553-1.16273059423895
117404421.535325279433-30.8219297487151-17.5353252794327-3.85901419759513
118359380.99480720903-37.4903232507064-21.9948072090305-0.524595696077299
119310346.021618547459-35.7627448912117-36.02161854745860.135923470791248
120337323.921013559424-26.383581385304413.07898644057570.73785564242991
121360333.581308531236-1.6407365962274126.41869146876441.94592240407478
122342348.3141792529719.5934396525968-6.314179252971220.883344197360704
123406379.52137372537124.414516556565526.47862627462861.16559308613585
124396411.72348470761829.754228985163-15.72348470761790.420104262044942
125420453.46498611901537.9767627008591-33.46498611901490.646998884290789
126472475.83989133248127.2717895672208-3.83989133248137-0.842101867842627
127548511.08430118093332.74096592581336.91569881906660.430083644751462
128559513.77231231674812.134769733698745.2276876832525-1.62031283963183
129463484.887484836084-15.9812544172692-21.8874848360842-2.21127693649818
130407434.772380868598-39.3777203253822-27.7723808685984-1.84057629427597
131362399.052454501808-36.8698777955172-37.05245450180830.197312257950715
132405394.108973468278-14.975134040616110.8910265317221.72240899636698
133417392.651627925518-5.7055368381269524.34837207448210.729006206791144
134391400.3296221743543.46767288200117-9.329622174353920.721305956545608
135419397.659648695434-0.73705414546217621.3403513045659-0.330682248078826
136461463.90150383072545.1453729183064-2.901503830725213.6096943596679
137472507.01034320500543.7498094321035-35.0103432050047-0.10980659504988
138535544.98510868352539.7913311727301-9.98510868352463-0.311391746418485
139622578.22516927300435.301544912251743.7748307269963-0.353075972268574
140606560.141515811457-1.2683797393288345.8584841885432-2.87561505436129
141508524.107097091264-25.07557550519-16.1070970912635-1.8723886851193
142461490.451015896253-30.9513322458369-29.451015896253-0.462236883917879
143390440.893259884215-43.6959853911942-50.8932598842149-1.00271204457785
144432417.761720495574-29.606826900789614.23827950442641.1083395199924

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Structural Time Series Model \tabularnewline
t & Observed & Level & Slope & Seasonal & Stand. Residuals \tabularnewline
1 & 112 & 112 & 0 & 0 & 0 \tabularnewline
2 & 118 & 116.671788474274 & 4.78155801943225 & 1.32821152572647 & 0.423689145533091 \tabularnewline
3 & 132 & 130.371229818874 & 11.0942647288799 & 1.6287701811255 & 0.528057668619185 \tabularnewline
4 & 125 & 129.117610298506 & 1.83281044686008 & -4.11761029850581 & -0.74513936781324 \tabularnewline
5 & 121 & 122.165489201878 & -4.61408218022834 & -1.16548920187763 & -0.503341530143378 \tabularnewline
6 & 135 & 130.840460867377 & 5.10514785710359 & 4.15953913262319 & 0.76553158883841 \tabularnewline
7 & 148 & 146.325509296661 & 12.7184834755677 & 1.67449070333946 & 0.598975748033357 \tabularnewline
8 & 148 & 150.916624970086 & 6.75475523181797 & -2.91662497008595 & -0.469036336838256 \tabularnewline
9 & 136 & 139.959858208077 & -6.23990721939744 & -3.95985820807689 & -1.02207413457878 \tabularnewline
10 & 119 & 120.927010214253 & -15.6242883130943 & -1.92701021425271 & -0.738098978659353 \tabularnewline
11 & 104 & 103.463937912199 & -16.973083850175 & 0.536062087801168 & -0.106085169265786 \tabularnewline
12 & 118 & 111.373683285343 & 1.27951783883446 & 6.6263167146573 & 1.43560037443354 \tabularnewline
13 & 115 & 116.069703415457 & 3.77970058980921 & -1.0697034154572 & 0.197206414703247 \tabularnewline
14 & 126 & 126.477584067024 & 8.64765558592602 & -0.477584067023724 & 0.388807321609176 \tabularnewline
15 & 141 & 136.049576507164 & 9.30104666202648 & 4.95042349283647 & 0.0511749864166898 \tabularnewline
16 & 135 & 137.844419684782 & 3.99426055011487 & -2.84441968478192 & -0.423760310414785 \tabularnewline
17 & 125 & 132.08802259436 & -2.93092214925213 & -7.08802259435972 & -0.544014091520314 \tabularnewline
18 & 149 & 144.415473673805 & 7.82486089426047 & 4.58452632619464 & 0.844465013059324 \tabularnewline
19 & 170 & 165.140264238042 & 16.9211007368587 & 4.85973576195833 & 0.715965757988637 \tabularnewline
20 & 170 & 172.206096283546 & 9.96209358109936 & -2.20609628354643 & -0.5473915657867 \tabularnewline
21 & 158 & 162.423952267825 & -3.98318321783517 & -4.42395226782502 & -1.09676543290355 \tabularnewline
22 & 133 & 137.870056338657 & -18.5114962510866 & -4.87005633865749 & -1.14274788357479 \tabularnewline
23 & 114 & 118.545310553121 & -19.0856817165541 & -4.54531055312075 & -0.0451609799632826 \tabularnewline
24 & 140 & 126.437300849885 & -0.0567680131929833 & 13.5626991501148 & 1.49708871622223 \tabularnewline
25 & 145 & 144.507091330072 & 12.7295954686015 & 0.492908669927958 & 1.00861920954692 \tabularnewline
26 & 150 & 152.885419812889 & 9.65640428491834 & -2.8854198128892 & -0.242055102172594 \tabularnewline
27 & 178 & 167.971043227518 & 13.4498150621299 & 10.0289567724816 & 0.297734368033722 \tabularnewline
28 & 163 & 166.46769685183 & 3.02342333728712 & -3.46769685183012 & -0.824704213257828 \tabularnewline
29 & 172 & 180.782348574577 & 10.9328246378954 & -8.78234857457682 & 0.623007742259019 \tabularnewline
30 & 178 & 182.511572733619 & 4.50670349560503 & -4.51157273361921 & -0.504507891676484 \tabularnewline
31 & 199 & 191.51331146898 & 7.6401540742064 & 7.48668853102042 & 0.246457697429335 \tabularnewline
32 & 199 & 196.376530083177 & 5.70230865612535 & 2.62346991682338 & -0.152455668540902 \tabularnewline
33 & 184 & 184.905420529948 & -6.2890472626701 & -0.90542052994846 & -0.943103839077208 \tabularnewline
34 & 162 & 167.377283149418 & -14.1366677791541 & -5.37728314941756 & -0.617257179921411 \tabularnewline
35 & 146 & 156.863503961159 & -11.6082414562566 & -10.8635039611591 & 0.198866451034869 \tabularnewline
36 & 166 & 155.221269605134 & -4.65746947277847 & 10.7787303948663 & 0.547026647529989 \tabularnewline
37 & 171 & 165.748642328531 & 5.94062281522363 & 5.25135767146854 & 0.83506477370447 \tabularnewline
38 & 180 & 181.839787942204 & 13.0225605341572 & -1.83978794220363 & 0.556925693535212 \tabularnewline
39 & 193 & 182.262334480146 & 4.27688141376941 & 10.7376655198544 & -0.687143931890773 \tabularnewline
40 & 181 & 187.20142366804 & 4.73596852246222 & -6.20142366803991 & 0.0362030679443897 \tabularnewline
41 & 183 & 190.469206513458 & 3.71520131954946 & -7.46920651345804 & -0.080408127589576 \tabularnewline
42 & 218 & 218.873007722877 & 20.8631806983735 & -0.873007722876673 & 1.34730981541916 \tabularnewline
43 & 230 & 227.000876774868 & 12.0322407121721 & 2.99912322513246 & -0.694269060940057 \tabularnewline
44 & 242 & 234.379328502005 & 8.8039961656848 & 7.62067149799548 & -0.253945170214703 \tabularnewline
45 & 209 & 213.374922742308 & -11.8865837848151 & -4.37492274230777 & -1.62737469788978 \tabularnewline
46 & 191 & 196.5386448944 & -15.3224629953796 & -5.53864489440032 & -0.270239179220982 \tabularnewline
47 & 172 & 184.634865908038 & -12.9502630282094 & -12.6348659080381 & 0.186592135139733 \tabularnewline
48 & 194 & 184.871703097465 & -3.80159692923641 & 9.12829690253458 & 0.720020440639339 \tabularnewline
49 & 196 & 191.158298876262 & 3.20143470307337 & 4.84170112373826 & 0.551339174536864 \tabularnewline
50 & 196 & 193.538422028243 & 2.63170385614532 & 2.46157797175698 & -0.0447925611952752 \tabularnewline
51 & 236 & 218.337829124321 & 17.9626617862241 & 17.6621708756791 & 1.20509099597849 \tabularnewline
52 & 235 & 241.289008952074 & 21.4102638786735 & -6.28900895207366 & 0.271559583828035 \tabularnewline
53 & 229 & 249.15750188179 & 12.0344171312933 & -20.1575018817897 & -0.73832725881025 \tabularnewline
54 & 243 & 245.68590789834 & 1.29985909571711 & -2.68590789834025 & -0.843875421260377 \tabularnewline
55 & 264 & 257.073659714577 & 8.27487826224684 & 6.92634028542332 & 0.548304735173398 \tabularnewline
56 & 272 & 257.46427538532 & 2.82409003236882 & 14.5357246146797 & -0.428704360451275 \tabularnewline
57 & 237 & 242.95206012456 & -9.16661245826492 & -5.95206012455965 & -0.94312463846166 \tabularnewline
58 & 211 & 219.717910555152 & -18.8974661391362 & -8.71791055515247 & -0.765370047453354 \tabularnewline
59 & 180 & 196.517768656737 & -21.8731513175244 & -16.5177686567366 & -0.234081466965488 \tabularnewline
60 & 201 & 189.505504339286 & -11.5947154611896 & 11.4944956607145 & 0.80886311006616 \tabularnewline
61 & 204 & 194.848232297037 & 0.124688841182296 & 9.15176770296263 & 0.922213835565996 \tabularnewline
62 & 188 & 193.924709691935 & -0.600047958119605 & -5.92470969193527 & -0.0569780277896207 \tabularnewline
63 & 235 & 213.793370229474 & 13.5241895897732 & 21.2066297705265 & 1.11048206144802 \tabularnewline
64 & 227 & 229.367014048406 & 14.9377829622963 & -2.36701404840649 & 0.111286437011303 \tabularnewline
65 & 234 & 249.260808663377 & 18.3603618813125 & -15.2608086633772 & 0.26945012536904 \tabularnewline
66 & 264 & 270.888171078497 & 20.6169679196902 & -6.8881710784968 & 0.177454318959077 \tabularnewline
67 & 302 & 293.394413946758 & 21.9208063474749 & 8.60558605324157 & 0.102499490051036 \tabularnewline
68 & 293 & 281.894056121285 & -1.13565440327024 & 11.1059438787151 & -1.81316636104391 \tabularnewline
69 & 259 & 262.864144000645 & -13.4827969078819 & -3.86414400064478 & -0.971152454590707 \tabularnewline
70 & 229 & 237.987998025549 & -21.3451248480736 & -8.98799802554894 & -0.618439130039766 \tabularnewline
71 & 203 & 221.776534266057 & -17.8025580599132 & -18.7765342660571 & 0.278695615816253 \tabularnewline
72 & 229 & 217.83133395417 & -8.23810766588378 & 11.1686660458301 & 0.752599562783404 \tabularnewline
73 & 242 & 227.446107835286 & 4.08692558818634 & 14.5538921647142 & 0.969613430477432 \tabularnewline
74 & 233 & 242.222658799548 & 11.4614658068697 & -9.22265879954778 & 0.579793650830936 \tabularnewline
75 & 267 & 248.058680507593 & 7.58598283139827 & 18.9413194924074 & -0.304736242385244 \tabularnewline
76 & 269 & 270.062740353107 & 17.5160489371394 & -1.062740353107 & 0.781538064972783 \tabularnewline
77 & 270 & 289.26802811224 & 18.6805039861357 & -19.26802811224 & 0.0916575211182352 \tabularnewline
78 & 315 & 320.725112132557 & 27.4905293504246 & -5.72511213255744 & 0.692919021024084 \tabularnewline
79 & 364 & 346.507546046427 & 26.3134406447838 & 17.4924539535731 & -0.0925430367470634 \tabularnewline
80 & 347 & 338.425393219666 & 2.6219903883396 & 8.57460678033424 & -1.86297272427899 \tabularnewline
81 & 312 & 316.251376113611 & -14.4569497372485 & -4.25137611361089 & -1.34330082547724 \tabularnewline
82 & 274 & 286.788003979009 & -24.793972123516 & -12.7880039790085 & -0.813141484254018 \tabularnewline
83 & 237 & 259.786022560842 & -26.3151003606872 & -22.7860225608421 & -0.119674264683424 \tabularnewline
84 & 278 & 263.971830020167 & -5.29723994861777 & 14.0281699798334 & 1.65369873500406 \tabularnewline
85 & 284 & 269.631048215159 & 2.25354272221984 & 14.368951784841 & 0.593932715736321 \tabularnewline
86 & 277 & 281.20226372324 & 8.67075563289534 & -4.20226372323959 & 0.504544372195241 \tabularnewline
87 & 317 & 299.73089506128 & 15.4529548089587 & 17.2691049387203 & 0.533333516319354 \tabularnewline
88 & 313 & 316.17119816684 & 16.1321142125022 & -3.17119816683979 & 0.0534442892691767 \tabularnewline
89 & 318 & 341.807601022361 & 22.6742158800429 & -23.8076010223612 & 0.514881745871129 \tabularnewline
90 & 374 & 378.132898469165 & 32.0737565351998 & -4.13289846916481 & 0.739353075257173 \tabularnewline
91 & 413 & 391.0394717629 & 18.8818841878098 & 21.9605282371004 & -1.03722960494736 \tabularnewline
92 & 405 & 391.767161138622 & 6.39372305704211 & 13.2328388613775 & -0.981972173597046 \tabularnewline
93 & 355 & 361.650640664844 & -18.717154079343 & -6.6506406648438 & -1.97499305144191 \tabularnewline
94 & 306 & 321.59211114219 & -33.3961938567126 & -15.5921111421904 & -1.15474555931164 \tabularnewline
95 & 271 & 299.153926765405 & -25.8576141823221 & -28.1539267654051 & 0.593114401351366 \tabularnewline
96 & 306 & 290.600191435491 & -13.9501586006277 & 15.3998085645093 & 0.936828390704866 \tabularnewline
97 & 315 & 297.669915261797 & 0.514743164123812 & 17.3300847382034 & 1.13768921771002 \tabularnewline
98 & 301 & 305.744196158234 & 5.7137526633537 & -4.74419615823383 & 0.408777486948166 \tabularnewline
99 & 356 & 333.324734336935 & 20.7401389856688 & 22.6752656630654 & 1.18168425406642 \tabularnewline
100 & 348 & 356.380288750147 & 22.331017073623 & -8.3802887501467 & 0.125176903354863 \tabularnewline
101 & 355 & 384.10389535697 & 26.0381952079956 & -29.1038953569698 & 0.291738768936356 \tabularnewline
102 & 422 & 420.42640045216 & 33.1105005448202 & 1.57359954784015 & 0.556322867990407 \tabularnewline
103 & 465 & 441.659204666474 & 24.9451431020858 & 23.3407953335259 & -0.64205262308191 \tabularnewline
104 & 467 & 445.990384517599 & 10.781461778423 & 21.0096154824007 & -1.11371038485077 \tabularnewline
105 & 404 & 413.091180244107 & -19.223204556117 & -9.09118024410742 & -2.35985669806968 \tabularnewline
106 & 347 & 369.442694309194 & -36.0018416594773 & -22.4426943091935 & -1.31994490184093 \tabularnewline
107 & 305 & 336.290824055655 & -34.0436240664922 & -31.2908240556548 & 0.154069458978262 \tabularnewline
108 & 336 & 321.17915063496 & -21.0319456582517 & 14.8208493650397 & 1.02365809199569 \tabularnewline
109 & 340 & 319.850400841152 & -7.49061908473982 & 20.1495991588484 & 1.0649971188202 \tabularnewline
110 & 318 & 325.756837173857 & 1.71163900537227 & -7.75683717385673 & 0.723556807504905 \tabularnewline
111 & 362 & 337.580620139614 & 8.65286853352394 & 24.4193798603864 & 0.54587772899519 \tabularnewline
112 & 348 & 357.240281759391 & 16.2074123856426 & -9.24028175939132 & 0.594384474847501 \tabularnewline
113 & 363 & 393.342192811441 & 29.8683089320385 & -30.3421928114409 & 1.07497978917962 \tabularnewline
114 & 435 & 431.409899101326 & 35.5002854213345 & 3.59010089867353 & 0.443033392001812 \tabularnewline
115 & 491 & 463.315118565502 & 33.0315460761219 & 27.6848814344985 & -0.194129270492053 \tabularnewline
116 & 505 & 474.802230045845 & 18.2444787938068 & 30.1977699541553 & -1.16273059423895 \tabularnewline
117 & 404 & 421.535325279433 & -30.8219297487151 & -17.5353252794327 & -3.85901419759513 \tabularnewline
118 & 359 & 380.99480720903 & -37.4903232507064 & -21.9948072090305 & -0.524595696077299 \tabularnewline
119 & 310 & 346.021618547459 & -35.7627448912117 & -36.0216185474586 & 0.135923470791248 \tabularnewline
120 & 337 & 323.921013559424 & -26.3835813853044 & 13.0789864405757 & 0.73785564242991 \tabularnewline
121 & 360 & 333.581308531236 & -1.64073659622741 & 26.4186914687644 & 1.94592240407478 \tabularnewline
122 & 342 & 348.314179252971 & 9.5934396525968 & -6.31417925297122 & 0.883344197360704 \tabularnewline
123 & 406 & 379.521373725371 & 24.4145165565655 & 26.4786262746286 & 1.16559308613585 \tabularnewline
124 & 396 & 411.723484707618 & 29.754228985163 & -15.7234847076179 & 0.420104262044942 \tabularnewline
125 & 420 & 453.464986119015 & 37.9767627008591 & -33.4649861190149 & 0.646998884290789 \tabularnewline
126 & 472 & 475.839891332481 & 27.2717895672208 & -3.83989133248137 & -0.842101867842627 \tabularnewline
127 & 548 & 511.084301180933 & 32.740965925813 & 36.9156988190666 & 0.430083644751462 \tabularnewline
128 & 559 & 513.772312316748 & 12.1347697336987 & 45.2276876832525 & -1.62031283963183 \tabularnewline
129 & 463 & 484.887484836084 & -15.9812544172692 & -21.8874848360842 & -2.21127693649818 \tabularnewline
130 & 407 & 434.772380868598 & -39.3777203253822 & -27.7723808685984 & -1.84057629427597 \tabularnewline
131 & 362 & 399.052454501808 & -36.8698777955172 & -37.0524545018083 & 0.197312257950715 \tabularnewline
132 & 405 & 394.108973468278 & -14.9751340406161 & 10.891026531722 & 1.72240899636698 \tabularnewline
133 & 417 & 392.651627925518 & -5.70553683812695 & 24.3483720744821 & 0.729006206791144 \tabularnewline
134 & 391 & 400.329622174354 & 3.46767288200117 & -9.32962217435392 & 0.721305956545608 \tabularnewline
135 & 419 & 397.659648695434 & -0.737054145462176 & 21.3403513045659 & -0.330682248078826 \tabularnewline
136 & 461 & 463.901503830725 & 45.1453729183064 & -2.90150383072521 & 3.6096943596679 \tabularnewline
137 & 472 & 507.010343205005 & 43.7498094321035 & -35.0103432050047 & -0.10980659504988 \tabularnewline
138 & 535 & 544.985108683525 & 39.7913311727301 & -9.98510868352463 & -0.311391746418485 \tabularnewline
139 & 622 & 578.225169273004 & 35.3015449122517 & 43.7748307269963 & -0.353075972268574 \tabularnewline
140 & 606 & 560.141515811457 & -1.26837973932883 & 45.8584841885432 & -2.87561505436129 \tabularnewline
141 & 508 & 524.107097091264 & -25.07557550519 & -16.1070970912635 & -1.8723886851193 \tabularnewline
142 & 461 & 490.451015896253 & -30.9513322458369 & -29.451015896253 & -0.462236883917879 \tabularnewline
143 & 390 & 440.893259884215 & -43.6959853911942 & -50.8932598842149 & -1.00271204457785 \tabularnewline
144 & 432 & 417.761720495574 & -29.6068269007896 & 14.2382795044264 & 1.1083395199924 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=1

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Structural Time Series Model[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]t[/C][C]Observed[/C][C]Level[/C][C]Slope[/C][C]Seasonal[/C][C]Stand. Residuals[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]1[/C][C]112[/C][C]112[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]2[/C][C]118[/C][C]116.671788474274[/C][C]4.78155801943225[/C][C]1.32821152572647[/C][C]0.423689145533091[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]3[/C][C]132[/C][C]130.371229818874[/C][C]11.0942647288799[/C][C]1.6287701811255[/C][C]0.528057668619185[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]4[/C][C]125[/C][C]129.117610298506[/C][C]1.83281044686008[/C][C]-4.11761029850581[/C][C]-0.74513936781324[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]5[/C][C]121[/C][C]122.165489201878[/C][C]-4.61408218022834[/C][C]-1.16548920187763[/C][C]-0.503341530143378[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]6[/C][C]135[/C][C]130.840460867377[/C][C]5.10514785710359[/C][C]4.15953913262319[/C][C]0.76553158883841[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]7[/C][C]148[/C][C]146.325509296661[/C][C]12.7184834755677[/C][C]1.67449070333946[/C][C]0.598975748033357[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]8[/C][C]148[/C][C]150.916624970086[/C][C]6.75475523181797[/C][C]-2.91662497008595[/C][C]-0.469036336838256[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]9[/C][C]136[/C][C]139.959858208077[/C][C]-6.23990721939744[/C][C]-3.95985820807689[/C][C]-1.02207413457878[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]10[/C][C]119[/C][C]120.927010214253[/C][C]-15.6242883130943[/C][C]-1.92701021425271[/C][C]-0.738098978659353[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]11[/C][C]104[/C][C]103.463937912199[/C][C]-16.973083850175[/C][C]0.536062087801168[/C][C]-0.106085169265786[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]12[/C][C]118[/C][C]111.373683285343[/C][C]1.27951783883446[/C][C]6.6263167146573[/C][C]1.43560037443354[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]13[/C][C]115[/C][C]116.069703415457[/C][C]3.77970058980921[/C][C]-1.0697034154572[/C][C]0.197206414703247[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]14[/C][C]126[/C][C]126.477584067024[/C][C]8.64765558592602[/C][C]-0.477584067023724[/C][C]0.388807321609176[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]15[/C][C]141[/C][C]136.049576507164[/C][C]9.30104666202648[/C][C]4.95042349283647[/C][C]0.0511749864166898[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]16[/C][C]135[/C][C]137.844419684782[/C][C]3.99426055011487[/C][C]-2.84441968478192[/C][C]-0.423760310414785[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]17[/C][C]125[/C][C]132.08802259436[/C][C]-2.93092214925213[/C][C]-7.08802259435972[/C][C]-0.544014091520314[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]18[/C][C]149[/C][C]144.415473673805[/C][C]7.82486089426047[/C][C]4.58452632619464[/C][C]0.844465013059324[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]19[/C][C]170[/C][C]165.140264238042[/C][C]16.9211007368587[/C][C]4.85973576195833[/C][C]0.715965757988637[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]20[/C][C]170[/C][C]172.206096283546[/C][C]9.96209358109936[/C][C]-2.20609628354643[/C][C]-0.5473915657867[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]21[/C][C]158[/C][C]162.423952267825[/C][C]-3.98318321783517[/C][C]-4.42395226782502[/C][C]-1.09676543290355[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]22[/C][C]133[/C][C]137.870056338657[/C][C]-18.5114962510866[/C][C]-4.87005633865749[/C][C]-1.14274788357479[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]23[/C][C]114[/C][C]118.545310553121[/C][C]-19.0856817165541[/C][C]-4.54531055312075[/C][C]-0.0451609799632826[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]24[/C][C]140[/C][C]126.437300849885[/C][C]-0.0567680131929833[/C][C]13.5626991501148[/C][C]1.49708871622223[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]25[/C][C]145[/C][C]144.507091330072[/C][C]12.7295954686015[/C][C]0.492908669927958[/C][C]1.00861920954692[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]26[/C][C]150[/C][C]152.885419812889[/C][C]9.65640428491834[/C][C]-2.8854198128892[/C][C]-0.242055102172594[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]27[/C][C]178[/C][C]167.971043227518[/C][C]13.4498150621299[/C][C]10.0289567724816[/C][C]0.297734368033722[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]28[/C][C]163[/C][C]166.46769685183[/C][C]3.02342333728712[/C][C]-3.46769685183012[/C][C]-0.824704213257828[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]29[/C][C]172[/C][C]180.782348574577[/C][C]10.9328246378954[/C][C]-8.78234857457682[/C][C]0.623007742259019[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]30[/C][C]178[/C][C]182.511572733619[/C][C]4.50670349560503[/C][C]-4.51157273361921[/C][C]-0.504507891676484[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]31[/C][C]199[/C][C]191.51331146898[/C][C]7.6401540742064[/C][C]7.48668853102042[/C][C]0.246457697429335[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]32[/C][C]199[/C][C]196.376530083177[/C][C]5.70230865612535[/C][C]2.62346991682338[/C][C]-0.152455668540902[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]33[/C][C]184[/C][C]184.905420529948[/C][C]-6.2890472626701[/C][C]-0.90542052994846[/C][C]-0.943103839077208[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]34[/C][C]162[/C][C]167.377283149418[/C][C]-14.1366677791541[/C][C]-5.37728314941756[/C][C]-0.617257179921411[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]35[/C][C]146[/C][C]156.863503961159[/C][C]-11.6082414562566[/C][C]-10.8635039611591[/C][C]0.198866451034869[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]36[/C][C]166[/C][C]155.221269605134[/C][C]-4.65746947277847[/C][C]10.7787303948663[/C][C]0.547026647529989[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]37[/C][C]171[/C][C]165.748642328531[/C][C]5.94062281522363[/C][C]5.25135767146854[/C][C]0.83506477370447[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]38[/C][C]180[/C][C]181.839787942204[/C][C]13.0225605341572[/C][C]-1.83978794220363[/C][C]0.556925693535212[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]39[/C][C]193[/C][C]182.262334480146[/C][C]4.27688141376941[/C][C]10.7376655198544[/C][C]-0.687143931890773[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]40[/C][C]181[/C][C]187.20142366804[/C][C]4.73596852246222[/C][C]-6.20142366803991[/C][C]0.0362030679443897[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]41[/C][C]183[/C][C]190.469206513458[/C][C]3.71520131954946[/C][C]-7.46920651345804[/C][C]-0.080408127589576[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]42[/C][C]218[/C][C]218.873007722877[/C][C]20.8631806983735[/C][C]-0.873007722876673[/C][C]1.34730981541916[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]43[/C][C]230[/C][C]227.000876774868[/C][C]12.0322407121721[/C][C]2.99912322513246[/C][C]-0.694269060940057[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]44[/C][C]242[/C][C]234.379328502005[/C][C]8.8039961656848[/C][C]7.62067149799548[/C][C]-0.253945170214703[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]45[/C][C]209[/C][C]213.374922742308[/C][C]-11.8865837848151[/C][C]-4.37492274230777[/C][C]-1.62737469788978[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]46[/C][C]191[/C][C]196.5386448944[/C][C]-15.3224629953796[/C][C]-5.53864489440032[/C][C]-0.270239179220982[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]47[/C][C]172[/C][C]184.634865908038[/C][C]-12.9502630282094[/C][C]-12.6348659080381[/C][C]0.186592135139733[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]48[/C][C]194[/C][C]184.871703097465[/C][C]-3.80159692923641[/C][C]9.12829690253458[/C][C]0.720020440639339[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]49[/C][C]196[/C][C]191.158298876262[/C][C]3.20143470307337[/C][C]4.84170112373826[/C][C]0.551339174536864[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]50[/C][C]196[/C][C]193.538422028243[/C][C]2.63170385614532[/C][C]2.46157797175698[/C][C]-0.0447925611952752[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]51[/C][C]236[/C][C]218.337829124321[/C][C]17.9626617862241[/C][C]17.6621708756791[/C][C]1.20509099597849[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]52[/C][C]235[/C][C]241.289008952074[/C][C]21.4102638786735[/C][C]-6.28900895207366[/C][C]0.271559583828035[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]53[/C][C]229[/C][C]249.15750188179[/C][C]12.0344171312933[/C][C]-20.1575018817897[/C][C]-0.73832725881025[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]54[/C][C]243[/C][C]245.68590789834[/C][C]1.29985909571711[/C][C]-2.68590789834025[/C][C]-0.843875421260377[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]55[/C][C]264[/C][C]257.073659714577[/C][C]8.27487826224684[/C][C]6.92634028542332[/C][C]0.548304735173398[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]56[/C][C]272[/C][C]257.46427538532[/C][C]2.82409003236882[/C][C]14.5357246146797[/C][C]-0.428704360451275[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]57[/C][C]237[/C][C]242.95206012456[/C][C]-9.16661245826492[/C][C]-5.95206012455965[/C][C]-0.94312463846166[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]58[/C][C]211[/C][C]219.717910555152[/C][C]-18.8974661391362[/C][C]-8.71791055515247[/C][C]-0.765370047453354[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]59[/C][C]180[/C][C]196.517768656737[/C][C]-21.8731513175244[/C][C]-16.5177686567366[/C][C]-0.234081466965488[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]60[/C][C]201[/C][C]189.505504339286[/C][C]-11.5947154611896[/C][C]11.4944956607145[/C][C]0.80886311006616[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]61[/C][C]204[/C][C]194.848232297037[/C][C]0.124688841182296[/C][C]9.15176770296263[/C][C]0.922213835565996[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]62[/C][C]188[/C][C]193.924709691935[/C][C]-0.600047958119605[/C][C]-5.92470969193527[/C][C]-0.0569780277896207[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]63[/C][C]235[/C][C]213.793370229474[/C][C]13.5241895897732[/C][C]21.2066297705265[/C][C]1.11048206144802[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]64[/C][C]227[/C][C]229.367014048406[/C][C]14.9377829622963[/C][C]-2.36701404840649[/C][C]0.111286437011303[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]65[/C][C]234[/C][C]249.260808663377[/C][C]18.3603618813125[/C][C]-15.2608086633772[/C][C]0.26945012536904[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]66[/C][C]264[/C][C]270.888171078497[/C][C]20.6169679196902[/C][C]-6.8881710784968[/C][C]0.177454318959077[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]67[/C][C]302[/C][C]293.394413946758[/C][C]21.9208063474749[/C][C]8.60558605324157[/C][C]0.102499490051036[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]68[/C][C]293[/C][C]281.894056121285[/C][C]-1.13565440327024[/C][C]11.1059438787151[/C][C]-1.81316636104391[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]69[/C][C]259[/C][C]262.864144000645[/C][C]-13.4827969078819[/C][C]-3.86414400064478[/C][C]-0.971152454590707[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]70[/C][C]229[/C][C]237.987998025549[/C][C]-21.3451248480736[/C][C]-8.98799802554894[/C][C]-0.618439130039766[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]71[/C][C]203[/C][C]221.776534266057[/C][C]-17.8025580599132[/C][C]-18.7765342660571[/C][C]0.278695615816253[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]72[/C][C]229[/C][C]217.83133395417[/C][C]-8.23810766588378[/C][C]11.1686660458301[/C][C]0.752599562783404[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]73[/C][C]242[/C][C]227.446107835286[/C][C]4.08692558818634[/C][C]14.5538921647142[/C][C]0.969613430477432[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]74[/C][C]233[/C][C]242.222658799548[/C][C]11.4614658068697[/C][C]-9.22265879954778[/C][C]0.579793650830936[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]75[/C][C]267[/C][C]248.058680507593[/C][C]7.58598283139827[/C][C]18.9413194924074[/C][C]-0.304736242385244[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]76[/C][C]269[/C][C]270.062740353107[/C][C]17.5160489371394[/C][C]-1.062740353107[/C][C]0.781538064972783[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]77[/C][C]270[/C][C]289.26802811224[/C][C]18.6805039861357[/C][C]-19.26802811224[/C][C]0.0916575211182352[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]78[/C][C]315[/C][C]320.725112132557[/C][C]27.4905293504246[/C][C]-5.72511213255744[/C][C]0.692919021024084[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]79[/C][C]364[/C][C]346.507546046427[/C][C]26.3134406447838[/C][C]17.4924539535731[/C][C]-0.0925430367470634[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]80[/C][C]347[/C][C]338.425393219666[/C][C]2.6219903883396[/C][C]8.57460678033424[/C][C]-1.86297272427899[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]81[/C][C]312[/C][C]316.251376113611[/C][C]-14.4569497372485[/C][C]-4.25137611361089[/C][C]-1.34330082547724[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]82[/C][C]274[/C][C]286.788003979009[/C][C]-24.793972123516[/C][C]-12.7880039790085[/C][C]-0.813141484254018[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]83[/C][C]237[/C][C]259.786022560842[/C][C]-26.3151003606872[/C][C]-22.7860225608421[/C][C]-0.119674264683424[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]84[/C][C]278[/C][C]263.971830020167[/C][C]-5.29723994861777[/C][C]14.0281699798334[/C][C]1.65369873500406[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]85[/C][C]284[/C][C]269.631048215159[/C][C]2.25354272221984[/C][C]14.368951784841[/C][C]0.593932715736321[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]86[/C][C]277[/C][C]281.20226372324[/C][C]8.67075563289534[/C][C]-4.20226372323959[/C][C]0.504544372195241[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]87[/C][C]317[/C][C]299.73089506128[/C][C]15.4529548089587[/C][C]17.2691049387203[/C][C]0.533333516319354[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]88[/C][C]313[/C][C]316.17119816684[/C][C]16.1321142125022[/C][C]-3.17119816683979[/C][C]0.0534442892691767[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]89[/C][C]318[/C][C]341.807601022361[/C][C]22.6742158800429[/C][C]-23.8076010223612[/C][C]0.514881745871129[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]90[/C][C]374[/C][C]378.132898469165[/C][C]32.0737565351998[/C][C]-4.13289846916481[/C][C]0.739353075257173[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]91[/C][C]413[/C][C]391.0394717629[/C][C]18.8818841878098[/C][C]21.9605282371004[/C][C]-1.03722960494736[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]92[/C][C]405[/C][C]391.767161138622[/C][C]6.39372305704211[/C][C]13.2328388613775[/C][C]-0.981972173597046[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]93[/C][C]355[/C][C]361.650640664844[/C][C]-18.717154079343[/C][C]-6.6506406648438[/C][C]-1.97499305144191[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]94[/C][C]306[/C][C]321.59211114219[/C][C]-33.3961938567126[/C][C]-15.5921111421904[/C][C]-1.15474555931164[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]95[/C][C]271[/C][C]299.153926765405[/C][C]-25.8576141823221[/C][C]-28.1539267654051[/C][C]0.593114401351366[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]96[/C][C]306[/C][C]290.600191435491[/C][C]-13.9501586006277[/C][C]15.3998085645093[/C][C]0.936828390704866[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]97[/C][C]315[/C][C]297.669915261797[/C][C]0.514743164123812[/C][C]17.3300847382034[/C][C]1.13768921771002[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]98[/C][C]301[/C][C]305.744196158234[/C][C]5.7137526633537[/C][C]-4.74419615823383[/C][C]0.408777486948166[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]99[/C][C]356[/C][C]333.324734336935[/C][C]20.7401389856688[/C][C]22.6752656630654[/C][C]1.18168425406642[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]100[/C][C]348[/C][C]356.380288750147[/C][C]22.331017073623[/C][C]-8.3802887501467[/C][C]0.125176903354863[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]101[/C][C]355[/C][C]384.10389535697[/C][C]26.0381952079956[/C][C]-29.1038953569698[/C][C]0.291738768936356[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]102[/C][C]422[/C][C]420.42640045216[/C][C]33.1105005448202[/C][C]1.57359954784015[/C][C]0.556322867990407[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]103[/C][C]465[/C][C]441.659204666474[/C][C]24.9451431020858[/C][C]23.3407953335259[/C][C]-0.64205262308191[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]104[/C][C]467[/C][C]445.990384517599[/C][C]10.781461778423[/C][C]21.0096154824007[/C][C]-1.11371038485077[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]105[/C][C]404[/C][C]413.091180244107[/C][C]-19.223204556117[/C][C]-9.09118024410742[/C][C]-2.35985669806968[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]106[/C][C]347[/C][C]369.442694309194[/C][C]-36.0018416594773[/C][C]-22.4426943091935[/C][C]-1.31994490184093[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]107[/C][C]305[/C][C]336.290824055655[/C][C]-34.0436240664922[/C][C]-31.2908240556548[/C][C]0.154069458978262[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]108[/C][C]336[/C][C]321.17915063496[/C][C]-21.0319456582517[/C][C]14.8208493650397[/C][C]1.02365809199569[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]109[/C][C]340[/C][C]319.850400841152[/C][C]-7.49061908473982[/C][C]20.1495991588484[/C][C]1.0649971188202[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]110[/C][C]318[/C][C]325.756837173857[/C][C]1.71163900537227[/C][C]-7.75683717385673[/C][C]0.723556807504905[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]111[/C][C]362[/C][C]337.580620139614[/C][C]8.65286853352394[/C][C]24.4193798603864[/C][C]0.54587772899519[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]112[/C][C]348[/C][C]357.240281759391[/C][C]16.2074123856426[/C][C]-9.24028175939132[/C][C]0.594384474847501[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]113[/C][C]363[/C][C]393.342192811441[/C][C]29.8683089320385[/C][C]-30.3421928114409[/C][C]1.07497978917962[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]114[/C][C]435[/C][C]431.409899101326[/C][C]35.5002854213345[/C][C]3.59010089867353[/C][C]0.443033392001812[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]115[/C][C]491[/C][C]463.315118565502[/C][C]33.0315460761219[/C][C]27.6848814344985[/C][C]-0.194129270492053[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]116[/C][C]505[/C][C]474.802230045845[/C][C]18.2444787938068[/C][C]30.1977699541553[/C][C]-1.16273059423895[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]117[/C][C]404[/C][C]421.535325279433[/C][C]-30.8219297487151[/C][C]-17.5353252794327[/C][C]-3.85901419759513[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]118[/C][C]359[/C][C]380.99480720903[/C][C]-37.4903232507064[/C][C]-21.9948072090305[/C][C]-0.524595696077299[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]119[/C][C]310[/C][C]346.021618547459[/C][C]-35.7627448912117[/C][C]-36.0216185474586[/C][C]0.135923470791248[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]120[/C][C]337[/C][C]323.921013559424[/C][C]-26.3835813853044[/C][C]13.0789864405757[/C][C]0.73785564242991[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]121[/C][C]360[/C][C]333.581308531236[/C][C]-1.64073659622741[/C][C]26.4186914687644[/C][C]1.94592240407478[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]122[/C][C]342[/C][C]348.314179252971[/C][C]9.5934396525968[/C][C]-6.31417925297122[/C][C]0.883344197360704[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]123[/C][C]406[/C][C]379.521373725371[/C][C]24.4145165565655[/C][C]26.4786262746286[/C][C]1.16559308613585[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]124[/C][C]396[/C][C]411.723484707618[/C][C]29.754228985163[/C][C]-15.7234847076179[/C][C]0.420104262044942[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]125[/C][C]420[/C][C]453.464986119015[/C][C]37.9767627008591[/C][C]-33.4649861190149[/C][C]0.646998884290789[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]126[/C][C]472[/C][C]475.839891332481[/C][C]27.2717895672208[/C][C]-3.83989133248137[/C][C]-0.842101867842627[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]127[/C][C]548[/C][C]511.084301180933[/C][C]32.740965925813[/C][C]36.9156988190666[/C][C]0.430083644751462[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]128[/C][C]559[/C][C]513.772312316748[/C][C]12.1347697336987[/C][C]45.2276876832525[/C][C]-1.62031283963183[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]129[/C][C]463[/C][C]484.887484836084[/C][C]-15.9812544172692[/C][C]-21.8874848360842[/C][C]-2.21127693649818[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]130[/C][C]407[/C][C]434.772380868598[/C][C]-39.3777203253822[/C][C]-27.7723808685984[/C][C]-1.84057629427597[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]131[/C][C]362[/C][C]399.052454501808[/C][C]-36.8698777955172[/C][C]-37.0524545018083[/C][C]0.197312257950715[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]132[/C][C]405[/C][C]394.108973468278[/C][C]-14.9751340406161[/C][C]10.891026531722[/C][C]1.72240899636698[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]133[/C][C]417[/C][C]392.651627925518[/C][C]-5.70553683812695[/C][C]24.3483720744821[/C][C]0.729006206791144[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]134[/C][C]391[/C][C]400.329622174354[/C][C]3.46767288200117[/C][C]-9.32962217435392[/C][C]0.721305956545608[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]135[/C][C]419[/C][C]397.659648695434[/C][C]-0.737054145462176[/C][C]21.3403513045659[/C][C]-0.330682248078826[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]136[/C][C]461[/C][C]463.901503830725[/C][C]45.1453729183064[/C][C]-2.90150383072521[/C][C]3.6096943596679[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]137[/C][C]472[/C][C]507.010343205005[/C][C]43.7498094321035[/C][C]-35.0103432050047[/C][C]-0.10980659504988[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]138[/C][C]535[/C][C]544.985108683525[/C][C]39.7913311727301[/C][C]-9.98510868352463[/C][C]-0.311391746418485[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]139[/C][C]622[/C][C]578.225169273004[/C][C]35.3015449122517[/C][C]43.7748307269963[/C][C]-0.353075972268574[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]140[/C][C]606[/C][C]560.141515811457[/C][C]-1.26837973932883[/C][C]45.8584841885432[/C][C]-2.87561505436129[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]141[/C][C]508[/C][C]524.107097091264[/C][C]-25.07557550519[/C][C]-16.1070970912635[/C][C]-1.8723886851193[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]142[/C][C]461[/C][C]490.451015896253[/C][C]-30.9513322458369[/C][C]-29.451015896253[/C][C]-0.462236883917879[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]143[/C][C]390[/C][C]440.893259884215[/C][C]-43.6959853911942[/C][C]-50.8932598842149[/C][C]-1.00271204457785[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]144[/C][C]432[/C][C]417.761720495574[/C][C]-29.6068269007896[/C][C]14.2382795044264[/C][C]1.1083395199924[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=1

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=154209&T=1

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1112112000
2118116.6717884742744.781558019432251.328211525726470.423689145533091
3132130.37122981887411.09426472887991.62877018112550.528057668619185
4125129.1176102985061.83281044686008-4.11761029850581-0.74513936781324
5121122.165489201878-4.61408218022834-1.16548920187763-0.503341530143378
6135130.8404608673775.105147857103594.159539132623190.76553158883841
7148146.32550929666112.71848347556771.674490703339460.598975748033357
8148150.9166249700866.75475523181797-2.91662497008595-0.469036336838256
9136139.959858208077-6.23990721939744-3.95985820807689-1.02207413457878
10119120.927010214253-15.6242883130943-1.92701021425271-0.738098978659353
11104103.463937912199-16.9730838501750.536062087801168-0.106085169265786
12118111.3736832853431.279517838834466.62631671465731.43560037443354
13115116.0697034154573.77970058980921-1.06970341545720.197206414703247
14126126.4775840670248.64765558592602-0.4775840670237240.388807321609176
15141136.0495765071649.301046662026484.950423492836470.0511749864166898
16135137.8444196847823.99426055011487-2.84441968478192-0.423760310414785
17125132.08802259436-2.93092214925213-7.08802259435972-0.544014091520314
18149144.4154736738057.824860894260474.584526326194640.844465013059324
19170165.14026423804216.92110073685874.859735761958330.715965757988637
20170172.2060962835469.96209358109936-2.20609628354643-0.5473915657867
21158162.423952267825-3.98318321783517-4.42395226782502-1.09676543290355
22133137.870056338657-18.5114962510866-4.87005633865749-1.14274788357479
23114118.545310553121-19.0856817165541-4.54531055312075-0.0451609799632826
24140126.437300849885-0.056768013192983313.56269915011481.49708871622223
25145144.50709133007212.72959546860150.4929086699279581.00861920954692
26150152.8854198128899.65640428491834-2.8854198128892-0.242055102172594
27178167.97104322751813.449815062129910.02895677248160.297734368033722
28163166.467696851833.02342333728712-3.46769685183012-0.824704213257828
29172180.78234857457710.9328246378954-8.782348574576820.623007742259019
30178182.5115727336194.50670349560503-4.51157273361921-0.504507891676484
31199191.513311468987.64015407420647.486688531020420.246457697429335
32199196.3765300831775.702308656125352.62346991682338-0.152455668540902
33184184.905420529948-6.2890472626701-0.90542052994846-0.943103839077208
34162167.377283149418-14.1366677791541-5.37728314941756-0.617257179921411
35146156.863503961159-11.6082414562566-10.86350396115910.198866451034869
36166155.221269605134-4.6574694727784710.77873039486630.547026647529989
37171165.7486423285315.940622815223635.251357671468540.83506477370447
38180181.83978794220413.0225605341572-1.839787942203630.556925693535212
39193182.2623344801464.2768814137694110.7376655198544-0.687143931890773
40181187.201423668044.73596852246222-6.201423668039910.0362030679443897
41183190.4692065134583.71520131954946-7.46920651345804-0.080408127589576
42218218.87300772287720.8631806983735-0.8730077228766731.34730981541916
43230227.00087677486812.03224071217212.99912322513246-0.694269060940057
44242234.3793285020058.80399616568487.62067149799548-0.253945170214703
45209213.374922742308-11.8865837848151-4.37492274230777-1.62737469788978
46191196.5386448944-15.3224629953796-5.53864489440032-0.270239179220982
47172184.634865908038-12.9502630282094-12.63486590803810.186592135139733
48194184.871703097465-3.801596929236419.128296902534580.720020440639339
49196191.1582988762623.201434703073374.841701123738260.551339174536864
50196193.5384220282432.631703856145322.46157797175698-0.0447925611952752
51236218.33782912432117.962661786224117.66217087567911.20509099597849
52235241.28900895207421.4102638786735-6.289008952073660.271559583828035
53229249.1575018817912.0344171312933-20.1575018817897-0.73832725881025
54243245.685907898341.29985909571711-2.68590789834025-0.843875421260377
55264257.0736597145778.274878262246846.926340285423320.548304735173398
56272257.464275385322.8240900323688214.5357246146797-0.428704360451275
57237242.95206012456-9.16661245826492-5.95206012455965-0.94312463846166
58211219.717910555152-18.8974661391362-8.71791055515247-0.765370047453354
59180196.517768656737-21.8731513175244-16.5177686567366-0.234081466965488
60201189.505504339286-11.594715461189611.49449566071450.80886311006616
61204194.8482322970370.1246888411822969.151767702962630.922213835565996
62188193.924709691935-0.600047958119605-5.92470969193527-0.0569780277896207
63235213.79337022947413.524189589773221.20662977052651.11048206144802
64227229.36701404840614.9377829622963-2.367014048406490.111286437011303
65234249.26080866337718.3603618813125-15.26080866337720.26945012536904
66264270.88817107849720.6169679196902-6.88817107849680.177454318959077
67302293.39441394675821.92080634747498.605586053241570.102499490051036
68293281.894056121285-1.1356544032702411.1059438787151-1.81316636104391
69259262.864144000645-13.4827969078819-3.86414400064478-0.971152454590707
70229237.987998025549-21.3451248480736-8.98799802554894-0.618439130039766
71203221.776534266057-17.8025580599132-18.77653426605710.278695615816253
72229217.83133395417-8.2381076658837811.16866604583010.752599562783404
73242227.4461078352864.0869255881863414.55389216471420.969613430477432
74233242.22265879954811.4614658068697-9.222658799547780.579793650830936
75267248.0586805075937.5859828313982718.9413194924074-0.304736242385244
76269270.06274035310717.5160489371394-1.0627403531070.781538064972783
77270289.2680281122418.6805039861357-19.268028112240.0916575211182352
78315320.72511213255727.4905293504246-5.725112132557440.692919021024084
79364346.50754604642726.313440644783817.4924539535731-0.0925430367470634
80347338.4253932196662.62199038833968.57460678033424-1.86297272427899
81312316.251376113611-14.4569497372485-4.25137611361089-1.34330082547724
82274286.788003979009-24.793972123516-12.7880039790085-0.813141484254018
83237259.786022560842-26.3151003606872-22.7860225608421-0.119674264683424
84278263.971830020167-5.2972399486177714.02816997983341.65369873500406
85284269.6310482151592.2535427222198414.3689517848410.593932715736321
86277281.202263723248.67075563289534-4.202263723239590.504544372195241
87317299.7308950612815.452954808958717.26910493872030.533333516319354
88313316.1711981668416.1321142125022-3.171198166839790.0534442892691767
89318341.80760102236122.6742158800429-23.80760102236120.514881745871129
90374378.13289846916532.0737565351998-4.132898469164810.739353075257173
91413391.039471762918.881884187809821.9605282371004-1.03722960494736
92405391.7671611386226.3937230570421113.2328388613775-0.981972173597046
93355361.650640664844-18.717154079343-6.6506406648438-1.97499305144191
94306321.59211114219-33.3961938567126-15.5921111421904-1.15474555931164
95271299.153926765405-25.8576141823221-28.15392676540510.593114401351366
96306290.600191435491-13.950158600627715.39980856450930.936828390704866
97315297.6699152617970.51474316412381217.33008473820341.13768921771002
98301305.7441961582345.7137526633537-4.744196158233830.408777486948166
99356333.32473433693520.740138985668822.67526566306541.18168425406642
100348356.38028875014722.331017073623-8.38028875014670.125176903354863
101355384.1038953569726.0381952079956-29.10389535696980.291738768936356
102422420.4264004521633.11050054482021.573599547840150.556322867990407
103465441.65920466647424.945143102085823.3407953335259-0.64205262308191
104467445.99038451759910.78146177842321.0096154824007-1.11371038485077
105404413.091180244107-19.223204556117-9.09118024410742-2.35985669806968
106347369.442694309194-36.0018416594773-22.4426943091935-1.31994490184093
107305336.290824055655-34.0436240664922-31.29082405565480.154069458978262
108336321.17915063496-21.031945658251714.82084936503971.02365809199569
109340319.850400841152-7.4906190847398220.14959915884841.0649971188202
110318325.7568371738571.71163900537227-7.756837173856730.723556807504905
111362337.5806201396148.6528685335239424.41937986038640.54587772899519
112348357.24028175939116.2074123856426-9.240281759391320.594384474847501
113363393.34219281144129.8683089320385-30.34219281144091.07497978917962
114435431.40989910132635.50028542133453.590100898673530.443033392001812
115491463.31511856550233.031546076121927.6848814344985-0.194129270492053
116505474.80223004584518.244478793806830.1977699541553-1.16273059423895
117404421.535325279433-30.8219297487151-17.5353252794327-3.85901419759513
118359380.99480720903-37.4903232507064-21.9948072090305-0.524595696077299
119310346.021618547459-35.7627448912117-36.02161854745860.135923470791248
120337323.921013559424-26.383581385304413.07898644057570.73785564242991
121360333.581308531236-1.6407365962274126.41869146876441.94592240407478
122342348.3141792529719.5934396525968-6.314179252971220.883344197360704
123406379.52137372537124.414516556565526.47862627462861.16559308613585
124396411.72348470761829.754228985163-15.72348470761790.420104262044942
125420453.46498611901537.9767627008591-33.46498611901490.646998884290789
126472475.83989133248127.2717895672208-3.83989133248137-0.842101867842627
127548511.08430118093332.74096592581336.91569881906660.430083644751462
128559513.77231231674812.134769733698745.2276876832525-1.62031283963183
129463484.887484836084-15.9812544172692-21.8874848360842-2.21127693649818
130407434.772380868598-39.3777203253822-27.7723808685984-1.84057629427597
131362399.052454501808-36.8698777955172-37.05245450180830.197312257950715
132405394.108973468278-14.975134040616110.8910265317221.72240899636698
133417392.651627925518-5.7055368381269524.34837207448210.729006206791144
134391400.3296221743543.46767288200117-9.329622174353920.721305956545608
135419397.659648695434-0.73705414546217621.3403513045659-0.330682248078826
136461463.90150383072545.1453729183064-2.901503830725213.6096943596679
137472507.01034320500543.7498094321035-35.0103432050047-0.10980659504988
138535544.98510868352539.7913311727301-9.98510868352463-0.311391746418485
139622578.22516927300435.301544912251743.7748307269963-0.353075972268574
140606560.141515811457-1.2683797393288345.8584841885432-2.87561505436129
141508524.107097091264-25.07557550519-16.1070970912635-1.8723886851193
142461490.451015896253-30.9513322458369-29.451015896253-0.462236883917879
143390440.893259884215-43.6959853911942-50.8932598842149-1.00271204457785
144432417.761720495574-29.606826900789614.23827950442641.1083395199924



Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ;
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ;
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
nx <- length(x)
x <- ts(x,frequency=par1)
m <- StructTS(x,type='BSM')
m$coef
m$fitted
m$resid
mylevel <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'level'])
myslope <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'slope'])
myseas <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'sea'])
myresid <- as.numeric(m$resid)
myfit <- mylevel+myseas
mylagmax <- nx/2
bitmap(file='test2.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(x),lag.max = mylagmax,main='Observed')
acf(mylevel,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Level')
acf(myseas,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Seasonal')
acf(myresid,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
spectrum(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
spectrum(mylevel,main='Level')
spectrum(myseas,main='Seasonal')
spectrum(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
cpgram(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
cpgram(mylevel,main='Level')
cpgram(myseas,main='Seasonal')
cpgram(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(as.numeric(m$resid),main='Standardized Residuals',ylab='Residuals',xlab='time',type='b')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test5.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
hist(m$resid,main='Residual Histogram')
plot(density(m$resid),main='Residual Kernel Density')
qqnorm(m$resid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(m$resid)
plot(m$resid^2, myfit^2,main='Sq.Resid vs. Sq.Fit',xlab='Squared residuals',ylab='Squared Fit')
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Structural Time Series Model',6,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Slope',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Seasonal',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Stand. Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,mylevel[i])
a<-table.element(a,myslope[i])
a<-table.element(a,myseas[i])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')