| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[70]) |
| 58 | 9994 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 10433 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 10073 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 10112 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 9266 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 9820 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 64 | 10097 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 65 | 9115 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 66 | 10411 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 67 | 9678 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 68 | 10408 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 69 | 10153 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 70 | 10368 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 71 | 10581 | 10580.1668 | 10065.8546 | 11094.479 | 0.4987 | 0.7906 | 0.7125 | 0.7906 |
| 72 | 10597 | 10135.8388 | 9614.9348 | 10656.7428 | 0.0414 | 0.047 | 0.5935 | 0.1912 |
| 73 | 10680 | 10300.341 | 9781.0676 | 10819.6144 | 0.0759 | 0.1314 | 0.7614 | 0.3992 |
| 74 | 9738 | 9453.9151 | 8915.0276 | 9992.8026 | 0.1507 | 0 | 0.7528 | 4e-04 |
| 75 | 9556 | 9938.221 | 9395.6895 | 10480.7526 | 0.0837 | 0.7653 | 0.6653 | 0.0603 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 71 | 0.0248 | 1e-04 | 0 | 0.6942 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | 0.0262 | 0.0455 | 0.0228 | 212669.676 | 106335.1851 | 326.0908 |
| 73 | 0.0257 | 0.0369 | 0.0275 | 144140.9444 | 118937.1048 | 344.8726 |
| 74 | 0.0291 | 0.03 | 0.0281 | 80704.2345 | 109378.8873 | 330.7248 |
| 75 | 0.0279 | -0.0385 | 0.0302 | 146092.9309 | 116721.696 | 341.6456 |
