| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ma1 | sar1 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.8936 | -0.7557 | 0.4061 | -0.8837 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (2e-04 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.9239 | -0.785 | 0 | -0.5338 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -1381.38076267874 |
| 8725.76438062521 |
| -1449.55961088549 |
| 2522.52758054866 |
| -66.3901934982254 |
| -84.7815230741787 |
| -1760.96211435527 |
| 5457.90675924533 |
| -1504.82411543303 |
| 2807.83760210673 |
| -1583.0990686837 |
| 629.77117411036 |
| 1457.2790219659 |
| -3310.33006250992 |
| 4194.99026356689 |
| 3635.327564965 |
| -1241.03431778199 |
| 3228.58315864446 |
| -1521.25568315477 |
| 1947.57977968499 |
| 382.178683571891 |
| -1820.0858885391 |
| 3702.57695154211 |
| 6136.16172340672 |
| 2451.30415337794 |
| 6377.90691125816 |
| -322.372606622087 |
| 942.184358133402 |
| 2940.71159711034 |
| 243.906510230233 |
| 3709.90907905325 |
| 3347.54077536099 |
| 3211.8940599993 |
| -7857.21905167835 |
| -390.517259651727 |
| -6300.79176240075 |
| -807.229399788868 |
| -3433.45086862743 |
| -3163.78796161745 |
| -3087.63190971803 |
| -1471.94544979318 |
| -3540.70422476145 |
| -7109.5137878244 |
| 4925.68063944181 |
| -3127.77613864169 |
| -3056.2396882846 |
| -7660.93028611817 |
| 131.955580524671 |
| 1894.64486008738 |
| 2040.02195455948 |
| -2225.53518159039 |
| 2109.18023699509 |
| -2615.20821961726 |
| 683.862080407197 |
| 3977.15035409951 |
| 4405.3870022809 |
| 2152.59805835939 |
| 2663.74933421667 |
| -7625.74185214993 |
| 1482.77742269288 |
| 4000.36113194259 |
| -8838.1887680753 |
| -4814.07783349223 |
| -1004.80471653775 |
| -6801.12067340637 |
| -8703.35798566296 |
| 4203.53952235642 |
| 3489.84427192284 |
| -7808.20013645524 |
| -10658.869341498 |
| 2561.6969120227 |
| -1825.21013352384 |
| -1472.39675984208 |
| 7920.73263689687 |
| 6665.71227153869 |
| 711.473003875776 |
| -406.722117077308 |
| 8934.34779787205 |
| -6792.87691100221 |
| -691.517577649364 |
| 441.969487658507 |
| -9243.19869716509 |
| -4657.0311755141 |
| 1343.48279294196 |
| -3647.79448761982 |
| 3353.10876789688 |
| -933.688483941669 |
| -3648.91681315237 |
| -319.391869579483 |
| -7007.50830049806 |
| 983.865703921912 |
| 13334.9128781464 |
| -8821.90062067085 |
| -13413.8176895026 |
| -3719.73847657745 |
| 2621.16445786506 |
| 4995.1134485306 |
| -1199.66315046473 |
| 2855.19674507193 |
| -1960.01102068018 |
| 3480.59408291463 |
| -39.5415836570366 |
| -1351.78074028221 |
| 3680.45287227204 |
| -9050.61034384971 |
| 618.974617581758 |
| -4153.38179866033 |
| -3279.07021161967 |
| 1578.70665823681 |
| -485.069826804772 |
| -4966.56734456184 |
| 8361.88848038811 |
| -3379.71923585842 |
| 494.641052950089 |
| -252.812061464214 |
| 8850.25794246837 |
| -5803.11598304265 |
| 293.877915261752 |
| -6205.73569117924 |
| -5195.50834271279 |
| 7725.47864490364 |
| 4136.94894422966 |
| 3967.60178518318 |
| 1599.67611167082 |
| 5312.12261215519 |
| -4231.04178737228 |
| 1817.49836009392 |
| -2342.55006161158 |
| 16814.6768854588 |
| 1922.82997064353 |
| -18398.4636907271 |
| 272.033132290924 |
| 980.226214629152 |
| 6673.83366856149 |
| 7724.75891057967 |
| -4054.37941481215 |
| 1298.2246855899 |
| 2794.28916873997 |
| 7788.36669197525 |
| -18161.1281850085 |
| 1040.85845079469 |
| 7388.99868858044 |
| 12298.0851328815 |
| -1056.67927400451 |
| 1469.76114204905 |
| 958.499974477759 |
| -397.504591064955 |
| 6479.06627631223 |
| -2053.27776991252 |
| 4586.84563166599 |
| 3524.56177918388 |
| -7303.05977064404 |
| 2058.22516095973 |
| -5494.14610143167 |
| -6805.04145028439 |
| 4981.77657652801 |
| 2673.02598644731 |
| 3017.19046698986 |
| 3156.53219736094 |
| -8391.57777781009 |
| 2361.29058154384 |
| 3194.06597745782 |
| -7573.96910651366 |
| 2213.64285204243 |
| 6336.06242559245 |
| 10097.6364436799 |
| -3148.00128001433 |
| -5459.39738647125 |
| -10331.9791286916 |
| 3807.82696050446 |
| 3849.83398937759 |
| -1685.28528450654 |
| 2814.88387803892 |
| -1760.30868047867 |
| -558.05294613939 |
| -10260.9445166403 |
| 2982.67302959901 |
| -8902.98224921826 |
| 1133.74481064168 |
| 1044.31975483413 |
| -1532.64394614621 |
| 2067.45260411847 |
| -1481.81561429415 |
| 5350.11995988996 |
| 6358.04749720253 |
| -1492.99931063897 |
| -6259.83766954864 |
| -6756.35076905917 |
| -1458.61997267997 |
| -17298.3206431889 |
| -2431.05802448957 |
| -7270.88205382671 |
| 8405.70588036938 |
| -4398.45167360888 |
| -3934.09857660434 |
| 4479.72272670141 |
| -7498.11761319958 |
| -9643.29805151048 |
| 10999.7064119776 |
| -549.843580742564 |
| -15453.5802813834 |
| 11601.5036389711 |
| 3232.88212515129 |
| 8626.52415297628 |
| 84.7005326329596 |
| -532.292762973949 |
| -1045.71884934749 |
| 4712.84178649262 |
| -9649.15782558302 |
| 15354.6784074709 |
| -5189.88186052655 |
| -8043.27291045525 |
| -473.209982402264 |
| 3116.87357395376 |
| 12393.4278966434 |
| 9605.44858386455 |
| 7116.74231552636 |
| 9023.22600536196 |
| 12505.581212124 |
| -289.346862411452 |
| -2585.29451425876 |
| 4783.67892918887 |
| -5702.89305255095 |
| -3249.70073950946 |
| -6648.73221518142 |
| -4348.94043349787 |
| 2557.62785763187 |
| 8411.74601211859 |
| -3979.54530046706 |
| -5422.04949991136 |
| -8104.70377508022 |
| -7374.30275765271 |
| -849.769204932781 |
| 2833.47496845127 |
| 6070.4661041012 |
| -8537.33126112133 |
| -4501.48848562633 |
| -5658.63484043161 |
| -2036.82304836925 |
| -5770.13428129153 |
| 3388.52732116696 |
