| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 649633.6661 | 587959.7936 | 717776.8017 | 0.1677 | 0 | 0.7317 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 881373.695 | 797695.3097 | 973829.9582 | 0.2345 | 1 | 0.0626 | 0.7412 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1142716.3241 | 1033105.8001 | 1263956.3125 | 0.1307 | 1 | 0.3876 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1550647.4846 | 1397826.0254 | 1720176.6014 | 0.3373 | 1 | 0.9586 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1521716.21 | 1369612.1127 | 1690712.4304 | 0.4174 | 0.5342 | 0.0525 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1573627.0975 | 1416333.5733 | 1748389.1427 | 0.2299 | 0.7834 | 0.81 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2908687.6264 | 2617683.8254 | 3232041.863 | 0.3972 | 1 | 0.4756 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2721535.7572 | 2448040.3933 | 3025586.0557 | 0.3339 | 0.1764 | 0.3635 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1434214.5098 | 1290084.3514 | 1594447.1057 | 0.3011 | 0 | 0.6303 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1387736.3092 | 1248235.479 | 1542827.5323 | 0.3936 | 0.4805 | 0.5877 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 989283.1534 | 889834.8291 | 1099845.8654 | 0.223 | 0 | 0.6696 | 0.9929 |
| 72 | 859626 | 900038.4174 | 809544.8034 | 1000647.7089 | 0.2156 | 0.1838 | 0.831 | 0.831 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0535 | 0.0515 | 0 | 1121200615.242 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0535 | -0.0387 | 0.0451 | 1166201665.2585 | 1143701140.2502 | 33818.6508 |
| 63 | 0.0541 | -0.0608 | 0.0504 | 4824736629.1082 | 2370712969.8696 | 48689.9679 |
| 64 | 0.0558 | -0.0234 | 0.0436 | 1319250246.4911 | 2107847289.025 | 45911.2981 |
| 65 | 0.0567 | -0.0118 | 0.0373 | 323359876.2558 | 1750949806.4711 | 41844.3521 |
| 66 | 0.0567 | -0.0419 | 0.038 | 4344800078.1819 | 2183258185.0896 | 46725.3484 |
| 67 | 0.0567 | -0.0148 | 0.0347 | 1848107976.8953 | 2135379583.919 | 46210.1675 |
| 68 | 0.057 | 0.0245 | 0.0334 | 4434526801.1922 | 2422772986.0781 | 49221.6719 |
| 69 | 0.057 | -0.0297 | 0.033 | 1816337377.831 | 2355391251.8284 | 48532.3732 |
| 70 | 0.057 | -0.0154 | 0.0313 | 456177371.684 | 2165469863.814 | 46534.6093 |
| 71 | 0.057 | -0.0435 | 0.0324 | 1847981336.4783 | 2136607270.4198 | 46223.4494 |
| 72 | 0.057 | -0.0449 | 0.0334 | 1633163482.7138 | 2094653621.4443 | 45767.386 |
