| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[354]) |
| 342 | 765.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 343 | 757.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 344 | 732.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 345 | 702.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 346 | 683.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 347 | 709.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 348 | 702.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 349 | 784.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 350 | 810.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 351 | 755.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 352 | 656.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 353 | 615.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 354 | 745.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 355 | 694.1 | 704.6005 | 582.8458 | 868.9085 | 0.4502 | 0.3137 | 0.2632 | 0.3137 |
| 356 | 675.7 | 649.0228 | 500.3997 | 875.2161 | 0.4086 | 0.348 | 0.2355 | 0.2021 |
| 357 | 643.7 | 626.8502 | 451.9203 | 927.1496 | 0.4562 | 0.3749 | 0.3105 | 0.2197 |
| 358 | 622.1 | 600.5324 | 411.8822 | 956.1395 | 0.4527 | 0.406 | 0.3241 | 0.2125 |
| 359 | 634.6 | 627.888 | 406.5433 | 1095.0063 | 0.4888 | 0.5097 | 0.366 | 0.3111 |
| 360 | 588 | 624.5717 | 387.6188 | 1170.0082 | 0.4477 | 0.4856 | 0.3901 | 0.3322 |
| 361 | 689.7 | 744.5182 | 426.4663 | 1616.2025 | 0.451 | 0.6376 | 0.4639 | 0.4993 |
| 362 | 673.9 | 761.1913 | 417.5246 | 1802.8793 | 0.4348 | 0.5535 | 0.4627 | 0.5119 |
| 363 | 647.9 | 711.5453 | 383.8558 | 1745.336 | 0.452 | 0.5284 | 0.4667 | 0.4745 |
| 364 | 568.8 | 633.3169 | 341.7241 | 1552.772 | 0.4453 | 0.4876 | 0.48 | 0.4057 |
| 365 | 545.7 | 588.6918 | 315.0582 | 1468.9081 | 0.4619 | 0.5177 | 0.4766 | 0.3636 |
| 366 | 632.6 | 752.5353 | 365.5352 | 2355.9205 | 0.4417 | 0.5998 | 0.5035 | 0.5035 |
| 367 | 643.8 | 709.0153 | 336.881 | 2350.1706 | 0.469 | 0.5364 | 0.5071 | 0.4827 |
| 368 | 593.1 | 653.989 | 307.0789 | 2237.3933 | 0.47 | 0.505 | 0.4893 | 0.455 |
| 369 | 579.7 | 631.292 | 289.2199 | 2311.5762 | 0.476 | 0.5178 | 0.4942 | 0.4471 |
| 370 | 546 | 604.1566 | 271.6189 | 2335.6107 | 0.4738 | 0.511 | 0.4919 | 0.4365 |
| 371 | 562.9 | 635.2332 | 272.1051 | 2850.2749 | 0.4745 | 0.5315 | 0.5002 | 0.4612 |
| 372 | 572.5 | 632.1343 | 263.2565 | 3115.8879 | 0.4812 | 0.5218 | 0.5139 | 0.4644 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 355 | 0.119 | -0.0149 | 0 | 110.2605 | 0 | 0 |
| 356 | 0.1778 | 0.0411 | 0.028 | 711.6752 | 410.9679 | 20.2723 |
| 357 | 0.2444 | 0.0269 | 0.0276 | 283.915 | 368.6169 | 19.1994 |
| 358 | 0.3021 | 0.0359 | 0.0297 | 465.1634 | 392.7535 | 19.818 |
| 359 | 0.3796 | 0.0107 | 0.0259 | 45.0503 | 323.2129 | 17.9781 |
| 360 | 0.4456 | -0.0586 | 0.0313 | 1337.487 | 492.2586 | 22.1869 |
| 361 | 0.5973 | -0.0736 | 0.0374 | 3005.0372 | 851.2269 | 29.1758 |
| 362 | 0.6982 | -0.1147 | 0.047 | 7619.771 | 1697.2949 | 41.1982 |
| 363 | 0.7413 | -0.0894 | 0.0518 | 4050.7243 | 1958.7871 | 44.2582 |
| 364 | 0.7407 | -0.1019 | 0.0568 | 4162.4293 | 2179.1513 | 46.6814 |
| 365 | 0.7629 | -0.073 | 0.0582 | 1848.2965 | 2149.0736 | 46.3581 |
| 366 | 1.0871 | -0.1594 | 0.0667 | 14384.4764 | 3168.6905 | 56.2911 |
| 367 | 1.181 | -0.092 | 0.0686 | 4253.0356 | 3252.1017 | 57.0272 |
| 368 | 1.2353 | -0.0931 | 0.0704 | 3707.4736 | 3284.6282 | 57.3117 |
| 369 | 1.358 | -0.0817 | 0.0711 | 2661.7377 | 3243.1022 | 56.9482 |
| 370 | 1.4622 | -0.0963 | 0.0727 | 3382.1901 | 3251.7952 | 57.0245 |
| 371 | 1.7791 | -0.1139 | 0.0751 | 5232.0949 | 3368.2834 | 58.0369 |
| 372 | 2.0047 | -0.0943 | 0.0762 | 3556.2456 | 3378.7257 | 58.1268 |
