| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0306414050313823 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1107897 | 1090892 | 17005 |
| 4 | 1555964 | 1326183.05709256 | 229780.942907441 |
| 5 | 1671159 | 1781290.86803268 | -110131.868032678 |
| 6 | 1493308 | 1893111.27285743 | -399803.272857426 |
| 7 | 2957796 | 1703009.73884093 | 1254786.26115907 |
| 8 | 2638691 | 3205946.15289692 | -567255.152896919 |
| 9 | 1305669 | 2869459.65800087 | -1563790.65800087 |
| 10 | 1280496 | 1488520.91506477 | -208024.915064769 |
| 11 | 921900 | 1456973.73938565 | -535073.739385651 |
| 12 | 867888 | 1081982.32821548 | -214094.328215479 |
| 13 | 652586 | 1021410.17718971 | -368824.177189707 |
| 14 | 913831 | 794806.88619107 | 119024.11380893 |
| 15 | 1108544 | 1059698.95227079 | 48845.0477292088 |
| 16 | 1555827 | 1255908.63316204 | 299918.366837961 |
| 17 | 1699283 | 1712381.55331667 | -13098.5533166716 |
| 18 | 1509458 | 1855436.19523917 | -345978.19523917 |
| 19 | 3268975 | 1655009.93722682 | 1613965.06277318 |
| 20 | 2425016 | 3463981.09442175 | -1038965.09442175 |
| 21 | 1312703 | 2588186.74415011 | -1275483.74415011 |
| 22 | 1365498 | 1436791.13013466 | -71293.130134661 |
| 23 | 934453 | 1487401.60845825 | -552948.60845825 |
| 24 | 775019 | 1039413.48618494 | -264394.486184941 |
| 25 | 651142 | 871878.067645684 | -220736.067645684 |
| 26 | 843192 | 741237.404391918 | 101954.595608082 |
| 27 | 1146766 | 936411.436450756 | 210354.563549244 |
| 28 | 1652601 | 1246430.99583267 | 406170.004167332 |
| 29 | 1465906 | 1764711.61544196 | -298805.615441958 |
| 30 | 1652734 | 1568860.79155355 | 83873.2084464508 |
| 31 | 2922334 | 1758258.78450484 | 1164075.21549516 |
| 32 | 2702805 | 3063527.68466982 | -360722.684669819 |
| 33 | 1458956 | 2832945.63478484 | -1373989.63478484 |
| 34 | 1410363 | 1546995.66187648 | -136632.661876481 |
| 35 | 1019279 | 1494216.04514341 | -474937.045143407 |
| 36 | 936574 | 1088579.30677876 | -152005.30677876 |
| 37 | 708917 | 1001216.65060683 | -292299.650606833 |
| 38 | 885295 | 764603.178622057 | 120691.821377943 |
| 39 | 1099663 | 944679.345604874 | 154983.654395126 |
| 40 | 1576220 | 1163796.26253244 | 412423.737467561 |
| 41 | 1487870 | 1652990.50531674 | -165120.505316739 |
| 42 | 1488635 | 1559580.98103434 | -70945.9810343422 |
| 43 | 2882530 | 1558172.09649412 | 1324357.90350588 |
| 44 | 2677026 | 2992647.28342196 | -315621.283421956 |
| 45 | 1404398 | 2777472.2038401 | -1373074.2038401 |
| 46 | 1344370 | 1462771.28102209 | -118401.281022092 |
| 47 | 936865 | 1399115.29941406 | -462250.29941406 |
| 48 | 872705 | 977446.300763836 | -104741.300763836 |
| 49 | 628151 | 910076.880143617 | -281925.880143617 |
| 50 | 953712 | 656884.275061308 | 296827.724938692 |
| 51 | 1160384 | 991540.493605698 | 168843.506394302 |
| 52 | 1400618 | 1203386.09587204 | 197231.904127956 |
| 53 | 1661511 | 1449663.55853154 | 211847.44146846 |
| 54 | 1495347 | 1717047.86179044 | -221700.861790437 |
| 55 | 2918786 | 1544090.63588851 | 1374695.36411149 |
| 56 | 2775677 | 3009652.23333501 | -233975.233335014 |
| 57 | 1407026 | 2859373.90344308 | -1452347.90344308 |
| 58 | 1370199 | 1446220.9230872 | -76021.9230872048 |
| 59 | 964526 | 1407064.50455063 | -442538.504550625 |
| 60 | 850851 | 987831.502990707 | -136980.502990707 |
| 61 | 683118 | 869959.227917166 | -186841.227917166 |
| 62 | 847224 | 696501.150175996 | 150722.849824004 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 865225.510064937 | 208030.489935063 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1097631.85656591 | 416694.143434086 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1551469.95058908 | -47735.9505890831 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1539415.25399252 | -31703.2539925249 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 1542421.82174613 | 1323276.17825387 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2940954.86309238 | -152826.863092384 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 2858702.03328069 | -1467106.03328069 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1417215.84309096 | -50837.8430909561 |
| 71 | 946295 | 1390440.10014988 | -444145.100149884 |
| 72 | 859626 | 956747.870243488 | -97121.8702434878 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 867102.919679952 | -373606.08577658 | 2107811.92513648 |
| 74 | 874579.839359903 | -907132.596757681 | 2656292.27547749 |
| 75 | 882056.759039855 | -1333414.22952592 | 3097527.74760563 |
| 76 | 889533.678719807 | -1707327.29551309 | 3486394.6529527 |
| 77 | 897010.598399759 | -2049769.9252835 | 3843791.12208302 |
| 78 | 904487.51807971 | -2371285.35282622 | 4180260.38898564 |
| 79 | 911964.437759662 | -2678034.84570795 | 4501963.72122727 |
| 80 | 919441.357439614 | -2973966.77813445 | 4812849.49301367 |
| 81 | 926918.277119565 | -3261777.78026196 | 5115614.33450109 |
| 82 | 934395.196799517 | -3543397.64153019 | 5412188.03512923 |
| 83 | 941872.116479469 | -3820257.62036785 | 5704001.85332679 |
| 84 | 949349.03615942 | -4093449.59541619 | 5992147.66773503 |
