| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 646285.749 | 542758.711 | 758843.7675 | 0.2606 | 2e-04 | 0.6239 | 2e-04 |
| 62 | 847224 | 892648.7253 | 769358.776 | 1025097.1056 | 0.2507 | 0.999 | 0.1831 | 0.7319 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1146666.358 | 1006320.3197 | 1296170.8272 | 0.1679 | 1 | 0.4286 | 0.9999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1538151.3036 | 1374879.0823 | 1710581.9557 | 0.3933 | 1 | 0.941 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1547099.21 | 1383339.4746 | 1720017.3763 | 0.3115 | 0.6449 | 0.0973 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1567869.7062 | 1402983.7256 | 1741914.1177 | 0.2491 | 0.7649 | 0.793 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2916141.9229 | 2689605.2183 | 3151837.0584 | 0.3374 | 1 | 0.4912 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2729408.1799 | 2510393.5843 | 2957581.2064 | 0.307 | 0.1209 | 0.3455 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1431116.1236 | 1273789.3287 | 1597601.3495 | 0.3209 | 0 | 0.6116 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1385991.1479 | 1231237.3527 | 1549903.3739 | 0.4073 | 0.4733 | 0.5749 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 986842.9527 | 856975.6511 | 1125868.6852 | 0.2838 | 0 | 0.6235 | 0.9724 |
| 72 | 859626 | 893459.4292 | 770111.4276 | 1025965.8616 | 0.3084 | 0.2172 | 0.7357 | 0.7357 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0889 | 0.057 | 0 | 1356614713.1132 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0757 | -0.0509 | 0.0539 | 2063405671.7462 | 1710010192.4297 | 41352.2695 |
| 63 | 0.0665 | -0.064 | 0.0573 | 5389080659.1261 | 2936367014.6618 | 54188.2553 |
| 64 | 0.0572 | -0.0155 | 0.0468 | 567645090.5254 | 2344186533.6277 | 48416.8001 |
| 65 | 0.057 | -0.028 | 0.0431 | 1880541441.2845 | 2251457515.1591 | 47449.526 |
| 66 | 0.0566 | -0.0384 | 0.0423 | 3618949618.9463 | 2479372865.7903 | 49793.3014 |
| 67 | 0.0412 | -0.0173 | 0.0387 | 2544589355.131 | 2488689507.1247 | 49886.7669 |
| 68 | 0.0427 | 0.0215 | 0.0366 | 3448017270.6417 | 2608605477.5643 | 51074.5091 |
| 69 | 0.0594 | -0.0276 | 0.0356 | 1561840173.2819 | 2492298221.5329 | 49922.9228 |
| 70 | 0.0603 | -0.0142 | 0.0334 | 384675569.2229 | 2281535956.3019 | 47765.4264 |
| 71 | 0.0719 | -0.0411 | 0.0341 | 1644136467.5798 | 2223590548.2363 | 47154.9631 |
| 72 | 0.0757 | -0.0379 | 0.0344 | 1144700928.1584 | 2133683079.8964 | 46191.8075 |
