| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 656225.5091 | 602504.4943 | 716343.6202 | 0.1903 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 885791.0594 | 806852.2978 | 975071.4875 | 0.1986 | 1 | 0.068 | 0.7785 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1154768.3822 | 1043881.9823 | 1281468.0814 | 0.1037 | 1 | 0.4654 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1580763.2662 | 1415023.3283 | 1772652.3536 | 0.2487 | 1 | 0.9671 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1536532.0807 | 1376700.7878 | 1721350.3471 | 0.364 | 0.5931 | 0.0925 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1599914.6616 | 1431602.19 | 1794885.6318 | 0.177 | 0.8332 | 0.8534 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2950873.6186 | 2583071.872 | 3389768.342 | 0.3518 | 1 | 0.557 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2751767.0974 | 2415313.0586 | 3151783.6305 | 0.4293 | 0.2883 | 0.4534 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1450630.0948 | 1302140.2329 | 1621907.1662 | 0.2497 | 0 | 0.6911 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1403400.5861 | 1261068.7734 | 1567342.9083 | 0.329 | 0.5561 | 0.6543 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 1000971.221 | 908640.0431 | 1105880.3577 | 0.1535 | 0 | 0.752 | 0.9975 |
| 72 | 859626 | 910294.0652 | 828544.6482 | 1002847.0585 | 0.1416 | 0.2229 | 0.896 | 0.896 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0467 | 0.041 | 0 | 723206068.8828 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0514 | -0.0435 | 0.0423 | 1487418068.6912 | 1105312068.787 | 33246.2339 |
| 63 | 0.056 | -0.0706 | 0.0517 | 6644268454.1973 | 2951630863.9238 | 54328.9137 |
| 64 | 0.0619 | -0.042 | 0.0493 | 4413910335.0114 | 3317200731.6957 | 57595.145 |
| 65 | 0.0614 | -0.0213 | 0.0437 | 1075714100.7801 | 2868903405.5126 | 53562.1453 |
| 66 | 0.0622 | -0.0576 | 0.046 | 8501330803.6119 | 3807641305.1958 | 61706.0881 |
| 67 | 0.0759 | -0.0289 | 0.0436 | 7254886000.6919 | 4300104833.1238 | 65575.1846 |
| 68 | 0.0742 | 0.0132 | 0.0398 | 1322115235.3005 | 3927856133.3959 | 62672.6107 |
| 69 | 0.0602 | -0.0407 | 0.0399 | 3485024345.6034 | 3878652601.4189 | 62278.8295 |
| 70 | 0.0596 | -0.0264 | 0.0385 | 1370671881.9425 | 3627854529.4713 | 60231.6738 |
| 71 | 0.0535 | -0.0546 | 0.04 | 2989489139.8028 | 3569821312.2287 | 59747.9817 |
| 72 | 0.0519 | -0.0557 | 0.0413 | 2567252826.2202 | 3486273938.3947 | 59044.6775 |
