| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 677593.9516 | 477664.7433 | 877523.1598 | 0.4784 | 0.0447 | 0.6861 | 0.0447 |
| 62 | 847224 | 923243.3426 | 718346.341 | 1128140.3441 | 0.2336 | 0.9892 | 0.3854 | 0.7557 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1144051.9999 | 936258.4565 | 1351845.5433 | 0.2521 | 0.9974 | 0.4388 | 0.9972 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1474504.3731 | 1266596.2115 | 1682412.5347 | 0.3537 | 0.9999 | 0.757 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1597414.1874 | 1389302.1183 | 1805526.2564 | 0.1888 | 0.783 | 0.273 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1497268.9168 | 1289193.1214 | 1705344.7122 | 0.4608 | 0.4757 | 0.5072 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2909300.2085 | 2701196.5059 | 3117403.911 | 0.3407 | 1 | 0.4644 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2740943.4733 | 2532850.0861 | 2949036.8605 | 0.3284 | 0.12 | 0.3718 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1410926.281 | 1202827.7034 | 1619024.8585 | 0.4278 | 0 | 0.5147 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1364744.7206 | 1156648.404 | 1572841.0373 | 0.4939 | 0.4002 | 0.4795 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 958355.7317 | 750258.3643 | 1166453.0991 | 0.4548 | 1e-04 | 0.4768 | 0.8444 |
| 72 | 859626 | 864545.6976 | 656448.8043 | 1072642.591 | 0.4815 | 0.2207 | 0.5513 | 0.5513 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1505 | 0.0082 | 0 | 30515110.871 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1132 | -0.0823 | 0.0452 | 5778940441.9743 | 2904727776.4226 | 53895.5265 |
| 63 | 0.0927 | -0.0619 | 0.0508 | 5012073598.0922 | 3607176383.6458 | 60059.7734 |
| 64 | 0.0719 | 0.027 | 0.0448 | 1585761970.2095 | 3101822780.2867 | 55694.0103 |
| 65 | 0.0665 | -0.0586 | 0.0476 | 8775977502.6176 | 4236653724.7529 | 65089.5823 |
| 66 | 0.0709 | 0.007 | 0.0408 | 109057986.5718 | 3548721101.7227 | 59571.1432 |
| 67 | 0.0365 | -0.015 | 0.0371 | 1901152582.0272 | 3313354170.3376 | 57561.7422 |
| 68 | 0.0387 | 0.0172 | 0.0347 | 2226379557.7029 | 3177482343.7583 | 56369.1613 |
| 69 | 0.0753 | -0.0137 | 0.0323 | 373659763.0223 | 2865946501.4543 | 53534.5356 |
| 70 | 0.0778 | 0.0012 | 0.0292 | 2667601.4446 | 2579618611.4533 | 50789.946 |
| 71 | 0.1108 | -0.0126 | 0.0277 | 145461249.1108 | 2358331578.5131 | 48562.6562 |
| 72 | 0.1228 | -0.0057 | 0.0259 | 24203424.7239 | 2163820899.0307 | 46516.8883 |
