| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 617 | 617 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 614 | 616.396948732601 | 0.00890096864893301 | -1.891027350527 | -0.0478157372022405 |
| 3 | 647 | 627.190243157795 | 0.988799371667717 | 16.4988964287048 | 0.382687229398689 |
| 4 | 580 | 614.287443148953 | -0.285014674369316 | -30.1047759730002 | -0.509321993981433 |
| 5 | 614 | 611.052513207032 | -0.517188083639074 | 4.01836929610002 | -0.125858378781982 |
| 6 | 636 | 617.095805249424 | -0.0968938084027448 | 16.1823525223894 | 0.309684842310729 |
| 7 | 388 | 556.688372454532 | -3.25890144376803 | -141.807181140932 | -3.00047629060688 |
| 8 | 356 | 484.168635668645 | -6.34923320265839 | -96.1860756932912 | -3.5336406521513 |
| 9 | 639 | 501.730933047395 | -5.39618671692589 | 126.039450272311 | 1.23422113670108 |
| 10 | 753 | 572.877842257336 | -2.55713008745794 | 143.893377683007 | 3.97125712311492 |
| 11 | 611 | 604.928226478024 | -1.32930621637036 | -10.3653014423345 | 1.7993577757283 |
| 12 | 639 | 623.869406826468 | -0.630563446952106 | 5.48850378759746 | 1.05477702174818 |
| 13 | 630 | 630.227957009343 | -0.735261174720945 | -3.83087954982516 | 0.406114330056758 |
| 14 | 586 | 622.333120717455 | -0.772652073471867 | -32.8600901381475 | -0.391537436587837 |
| 15 | 695 | 631.271094180582 | -0.493456770922537 | 59.6026960306092 | 0.475572215608298 |
| 16 | 552 | 617.469921422483 | -1.02893506409475 | -60.178976522652 | -0.623305304405177 |
| 17 | 619 | 605.959756167769 | -1.48080614654193 | 17.225876875216 | -0.496596256418881 |
| 18 | 681 | 600.514123624059 | -1.64515347641797 | 82.121535601141 | -0.193503833455735 |
| 19 | 421 | 578.809469677255 | -2.40793386360839 | -149.261998295292 | -1.00540932848966 |
| 20 | 307 | 538.275197147396 | -3.7189679603951 | -214.643278985922 | -1.94607281010152 |
| 21 | 754 | 564.929038195097 | -2.77412246155011 | 175.620982830004 | 1.56734874434369 |
| 22 | 690 | 574.695107710029 | -2.42181274490761 | 109.700224624738 | 0.651027554615342 |
| 23 | 644 | 600.822188820922 | -1.71287958758406 | 30.3380237833078 | 1.4872360669258 |
| 24 | 643 | 617.896973213422 | -1.3263238867723 | 16.5964602212265 | 0.982912835246338 |
| 25 | 608 | 619.547624844118 | -1.28311665010783 | -12.9140537498383 | 0.157776553581981 |
| 26 | 651 | 635.459325224944 | -0.99122574206708 | 7.75209318674066 | 0.900349344795639 |
| 27 | 691 | 634.395520823291 | -0.992904593430529 | 56.6362310909283 | -0.00369172551485322 |
| 28 | 627 | 643.501262093642 | -0.706503154503003 | -20.7933596169715 | 0.502901601247424 |
| 29 | 634 | 634.86330463356 | -0.953749781277541 | 2.47674078398756 | -0.393398703641176 |
| 30 | 731 | 629.622652108229 | -1.09007578366578 | 103.194432087379 | -0.214324542999388 |
| 31 | 475 | 622.756050427791 | -1.26892259476824 | -145.275710478281 | -0.292197917486537 |
| 32 | 337 | 610.660231483562 | -1.58637658914867 | -268.952011920509 | -0.553355122994409 |
| 33 | 803 | 616.649766676177 | -1.37937745859655 | 183.023518940958 | 0.390011587357417 |
| 34 | 722 | 624.075948221698 | -1.15750520267233 | 94.0318320043368 | 0.455304881421709 |
| 35 | 590 | 614.189819336165 | -1.3588353179437 | -20.3148191596394 | -0.452515251056171 |
| 36 | 724 | 636.349784302915 | -0.861929286871881 | 77.1765557941437 | 1.22173670849044 |
| 37 | 627 | 646.455731141829 | -0.643500528079492 | -24.347351654675 | 0.570315950983073 |
| 38 | 696 | 659.877515841653 | -0.353259535196235 | 29.8835954563089 | 0.727765939220656 |
| 39 | 825 | 691.571617843779 | 0.373423025537755 | 119.381049661517 | 1.64186871172429 |
| 40 | 677 | 699.810530488554 | 0.568995157869173 | -26.2178870870809 | 0.399418529290393 |
| 41 | 656 | 689.014861660319 | 0.268732304605766 | -28.1210227508812 | -0.575120311520569 |
| 42 | 785 | 682.804206257091 | 0.0931880537620652 | 104.987924410301 | -0.328536257971555 |
| 43 | 412 | 648.711879263477 | -0.828645465048698 | -221.907732692298 | -1.74176754121474 |
| 44 | 352 | 634.70362683184 | -1.17473993777091 | -276.961156435124 | -0.674976305704194 |
| 45 | 839 | 638.039638391325 | -1.06101759367494 | 198.984464813981 | 0.231950298533754 |
| 46 | 729 | 639.380513400531 | -1.00330426497932 | 88.5632647280933 | 0.12383901198177 |
| 47 | 696 | 665.295841033245 | -0.386876004800131 | 18.836736883735 | 1.39013304852739 |
| 48 | 641 | 651.819263132602 | -0.675218594038216 | -5.04038640399405 | -0.676545743731482 |
| 49 | 695 | 670.319478108813 | -0.260201923073511 | 16.2155744411849 | 0.990801527802938 |
| 50 | 638 | 665.389409143113 | -0.36258189017876 | -25.3331312126518 | -0.240739837222771 |
| 51 | 762 | 657.294380763797 | -0.538188223089132 | 108.094394177333 | -0.397055699222239 |
| 52 | 635 | 651.13078541884 | -0.671219416974191 | -13.6776324998709 | -0.287771542225097 |
| 53 | 721 | 668.78583262851 | -0.223798474251317 | 44.2467786875701 | 0.93570223097239 |
| 54 | 854 | 686.320189368949 | 0.217124722183577 | 159.961779656323 | 0.907050019193713 |
| 55 | 418 | 678.073683887681 | 0.00672973108188715 | -256.388380943118 | -0.433153105252573 |
| 56 | 367 | 669.552100742591 | -0.20275529662311 | -298.828182170128 | -0.437525965667165 |
| 57 | 824 | 658.836298315134 | -0.455622554619185 | 169.766769853424 | -0.540485167194174 |
| 58 | 687 | 645.244652197097 | -0.763683849808934 | 47.5190162505574 | -0.676339655547964 |
| 59 | 601 | 624.541961778014 | -1.22000669844807 | -14.7811404587534 | -1.02754087691151 |
| 60 | 676 | 635.390232881339 | -0.948801096759488 | 35.3035289438055 | 0.622172317079824 |
| 61 | 740 | 658.548853215149 | -0.411112943592857 | 70.8529877764049 | 1.24253267435881 |
| 62 | 691 | 678.148922410464 | 0.0374138587148092 | 4.06399498244345 | 1.03030995753339 |
| 63 | 683 | 658.849470280066 | -0.40230940775606 | 32.6243754546827 | -0.993915817436151 |
| 64 | 594 | 645.011463258622 | -0.713389929686892 | -45.1364106211146 | -0.689446747515643 |
| 65 | 729 | 652.556970942269 | -0.519155926598893 | 72.8369874091147 | 0.423393794567555 |
| 66 | 731 | 630.578585419439 | -1.02861777507381 | 109.78793670886 | -1.10013191759581 |
| 67 | 386 | 623.690526217857 | -1.16798317756228 | -235.131198994969 | -0.30062963145936 |
| 68 | 331 | 619.234799318318 | -1.24578102221594 | -286.796934974138 | -0.168872965174067 |
| 69 | 706 | 593.628522452172 | -1.8163759182738 | 123.039563781353 | -1.25257958389931 |
| 70 | 715 | 603.142471643723 | -1.55431091765223 | 106.890240519421 | 0.58304835257454 |
| 71 | 657 | 627.068634670337 | -0.972049696644329 | 18.7522309409245 | 1.31185084565462 |
| 72 | 653 | 635.849959399351 | -0.751147810267055 | 12.8693566862222 | 0.502250181709027 |
| 73 | 642 | 622.789793944422 | -1.02887325633041 | 24.6121911279761 | -0.633773365128728 |
| 74 | 643 | 617.574805413057 | -1.12349117090786 | 27.2613602603735 | -0.215432445722073 |
| 75 | 718 | 629.489808993336 | -0.826971112772872 | 82.7961846101153 | 0.670507476225659 |
| 76 | 654 | 648.607118256558 | -0.36970969291511 | -3.33902258960373 | 1.02486973762547 |
| 77 | 632 | 626.083745781222 | -0.881438386831149 | 15.608611994365 | -1.13786608711072 |
| 78 | 731 | 616.355660382818 | -1.08678884008922 | 118.513957161156 | -0.454363881296937 |
| 79 | 392 | 614.178565361593 | -1.11213131856399 | -221.701527325656 | -0.0560161946260732 |
| 80 | 344 | 615.109949159825 | -1.06473475505882 | -272.004548558029 | 0.105042464596498 |
| 81 | 792 | 633.140521556858 | -0.623962171472875 | 150.494653404985 | 0.982058119237524 |
| 82 | 852 | 670.84068903577 | 0.255276391268461 | 164.361833347732 | 1.97178615359184 |
| 83 | 649 | 671.750163385291 | 0.27019631271364 | -23.0370105776445 | 0.0336675238157037 |
| 84 | 629 | 656.296494317658 | -0.086826917573852 | -20.4006774519593 | -0.809300247597123 |
| 85 | 685 | 653.956676017864 | -0.137879073788527 | 32.0313722968662 | -0.115954314634382 |
| 86 | 617 | 640.418173632288 | -0.441701783390005 | -17.5427119445219 | -0.689537008876856 |
| 87 | 715 | 635.891177447453 | -0.534567910479636 | 80.8992928634637 | -0.210140917687362 |
| 88 | 715 | 650.40038193176 | -0.19134042511494 | 58.0092681768361 | 0.773562186664446 |
| 89 | 629 | 644.190666570959 | -0.32913763481526 | -12.5550320216268 | -0.309398759602097 |
| 90 | 916 | 682.42042619619 | 0.555871017528162 | 216.695528486235 | 1.98219008580916 |
| 91 | 531 | 714.384389917127 | 1.27733897291719 | -197.138624202137 | 1.61480134695767 |
| 92 | 357 | 709.072175808654 | 1.12610511911945 | -349.185748819648 | -0.338870856568365 |
| 93 | 917 | 728.762298339269 | 1.55121623301393 | 180.103599868715 | 0.954900475007578 |
| 94 | 828 | 716.704167144778 | 1.24047453162402 | 117.260626367323 | -0.700185467991448 |
| 95 | 708 | 713.926151765718 | 1.14898544999 | -4.16454604836011 | -0.206775382576611 |
| 96 | 858 | 753.414735058963 | 2.01993886889016 | 87.7763601088179 | 1.97292428250352 |
| 97 | 775 | 760.669570293483 | 2.13872844742617 | 12.035336299754 | 0.269378334125676 |
| 98 | 785 | 775.784547817052 | 2.43321800613567 | 3.52695931173405 | 0.667669645661045 |
| 99 | 1006 | 823.180944312963 | 3.45477034038179 | 163.111747552007 | 2.31315058939381 |
| 100 | 789 | 818.704725262574 | 3.27428187951039 | -26.2292848939256 | -0.407949027305529 |
| 101 | 734 | 811.408519323328 | 3.03332576967954 | -72.777161323887 | -0.543658038237308 |
| 102 | 906 | 786.499903280309 | 2.39562034203717 | 131.741770434519 | -1.43706067323715 |
| 103 | 532 | 767.043548859095 | 1.89667799498837 | -225.46961278102 | -1.12391175036914 |
| 104 | 387 | 758.265047447665 | 1.65302033209761 | -366.587439083686 | -0.549113734761044 |
| 105 | 991 | 769.352342045315 | 1.86813573176179 | 217.513186035759 | 0.485341329755778 |
| 106 | 841 | 765.900393301626 | 1.74699798375018 | 77.431397184117 | -0.273717249559393 |
| 107 | 892 | 807.588673359281 | 2.65518046027041 | 66.903272236906 | 2.05511868752737 |
| 108 | 782 | 795.704020686364 | 2.32493928248099 | -7.33019581179452 | -0.748151024725141 |
| 109 | 811 | 800.115960063495 | 2.37231297565877 | 9.96915653146355 | 0.107386581560853 |
| 110 | 792 | 805.718933257002 | 2.44564568899636 | -15.135104349632 | 0.166226549711124 |
| 111 | 978 | 806.153981274869 | 2.39998602408205 | 172.727300476326 | -0.103443856329518 |
| 112 | 773 | 799.782679124293 | 2.20064649229407 | -22.9384193335597 | -0.451243979763858 |
| 113 | 796 | 808.775932967867 | 2.35513726672981 | -15.7527567721448 | 0.34943119055041 |
| 114 | 946 | 809.27798045616 | 2.31296621707854 | 137.534097875067 | -0.0953266757550031 |
| 115 | 594 | 812.546637726663 | 2.33472024336827 | -218.965454837899 | 0.0491637223581623 |
| 116 | 438 | 815.484437539866 | 2.34844595498619 | -377.748741227854 | 0.0310257634298077 |
| 117 | 1023 | 817.148721436774 | 2.33288210859006 | 206.151137627275 | -0.0351990909533197 |
| 118 | 868 | 818.33253416863 | 2.30675933691464 | 50.1711213131559 | -0.0591208908002539 |
| 119 | 791 | 793.759022970051 | 1.69608307479104 | 9.0236476482974 | -1.38307096371418 |
| 120 | 760 | 781.884673009157 | 1.38795466238606 | -15.9360412844368 | -0.698252925244049 |
| 121 | 779 | 776.340857466041 | 1.23061261672113 | 5.69771812721296 | -0.356667091303312 |
| 122 | 852 | 797.198340696547 | 1.6760960307883 | 46.1982786277265 | 1.00986194939656 |
| 123 | 1001 | 810.276964593516 | 1.9349548363357 | 185.724949861748 | 0.586676627365458 |
| 124 | 734 | 802.461081172215 | 1.71351936507933 | -64.1871643782699 | -0.501678056263236 |
| 125 | 996 | 852.93734746923 | 2.8212873761533 | 121.690078534423 | 2.50876743048148 |
| 126 | 869 | 837.2711439159 | 2.40118107101236 | 39.8317270824654 | -0.951144011058335 |
| 127 | 599 | 828.532771915501 | 2.14801668354301 | -224.650404355088 | -0.573112339381727 |
| 128 | 426 | 819.181658249753 | 1.88669505478303 | -388.141579195354 | -0.591624722927034 |
| 129 | 1138 | 842.332870895072 | 2.36983533521371 | 286.346574099326 | 1.09407861571289 |
