| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.071392519971865 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 614 | 617 | -3 |
| 3 | 647 | 616.785822440084 | 30.2141775599156 |
| 4 | 580 | 618.942888714964 | -38.9428887149642 |
| 5 | 614 | 616.162657754619 | -2.16265775461898 |
| 6 | 636 | 616.00826016768 | 19.9917398323199 |
| 7 | 388 | 617.435520852931 | -229.435520852931 |
| 8 | 356 | 601.055540848183 | -245.055540848183 |
| 9 | 639 | 583.560408253963 | 55.439591746037 |
| 10 | 753 | 587.518380414924 | 165.481619585076 |
| 11 | 611 | 599.332530246128 | 11.667469753872 |
| 12 | 639 | 600.165500313552 | 38.8344996864475 |
| 13 | 630 | 602.937993108015 | 27.0620068919854 |
| 14 | 586 | 604.870017975529 | -18.8700179755293 |
| 15 | 695 | 603.522839840342 | 91.4771601596581 |
| 16 | 552 | 610.05362482401 | -58.0536248240098 |
| 17 | 619 | 605.909030254323 | 13.0909697456774 |
| 18 | 681 | 606.843627573342 | 74.1563724266581 |
| 19 | 421 | 612.137837872853 | -191.137837872853 |
| 20 | 307 | 598.492025965136 | -291.492025965136 |
| 21 | 754 | 577.681675679781 | 176.318324320219 |
| 22 | 690 | 590.269485170218 | 99.730514829782 |
| 23 | 644 | 597.389497942008 | 46.6105020579924 |
| 24 | 643 | 600.717139141081 | 42.2828608589185 |
| 25 | 608 | 603.735819129419 | 4.26418087058062 |
| 26 | 651 | 604.040249747386 | 46.9597502526141 |
| 27 | 691 | 607.392824655169 | 83.6071753448306 |
| 28 | 627 | 613.361751590766 | 13.6382484092336 |
| 29 | 634 | 614.335420512704 | 19.6645794872961 |
| 30 | 731 | 615.739324396489 | 115.260675603511 |
| 31 | 475 | 623.968074481483 | -148.968074481483 |
| 32 | 337 | 613.332868248894 | -276.332868248894 |
| 33 | 803 | 593.604768433552 | 209.395231566448 |
| 34 | 722 | 608.554021685173 | 113.445978314827 |
| 35 | 590 | 616.653215957742 | -26.6532159577418 |
| 36 | 724 | 614.750375705164 | 109.249624294836 |
| 37 | 627 | 622.549981689552 | 4.45001831044794 |
| 38 | 696 | 622.867679710656 | 73.1323202893441 |
| 39 | 825 | 628.088780347502 | 196.911219652498 |
| 40 | 677 | 642.146768529227 | 34.853231470773 |
| 41 | 656 | 644.635028553088 | 11.3649714469118 |
| 42 | 785 | 645.446402504092 | 139.553597495908 |
| 43 | 412 | 655.409485500464 | -243.409485500464 |
| 44 | 352 | 638.031868945531 | -286.031868945531 |
| 45 | 839 | 617.611333029247 | 221.388666970753 |
| 46 | 729 | 633.416827857501 | 95.5831721424989 |
| 47 | 696 | 640.240751383659 | 55.7592486163413 |
| 48 | 641 | 644.221544654117 | -3.221544654117 |
| 49 | 695 | 643.991550463058 | 51.0084495369423 |
| 50 | 638 | 647.633172215358 | -9.63317221535772 |
| 51 | 762 | 646.94543577558 | 115.05456422442 |
| 52 | 635 | 655.159471049826 | -20.1594710498264 |
| 53 | 721 | 653.720235610279 | 67.2797643897206 |
| 54 | 854 | 658.523507533175 | 195.476492466825 |
| 55 | 418 | 672.479066925643 | -254.479066925643 |
| 56 | 367 | 654.311165057732 | -287.311165057732 |
| 57 | 824 | 633.799296968208 | 190.200703031792 |
| 58 | 687 | 647.378204458068 | 39.6217955419316 |
| 59 | 601 | 650.206904287617 | -49.2069042876169 |
| 60 | 676 | 646.69389939051 | 29.3061006094904 |
| 61 | 740 | 648.78613576357 | 91.2138642364299 |
| 62 | 691 | 655.29812338778 | 35.7018766122196 |
| 63 | 683 | 657.846970326851 | 25.1530296731487 |
| 64 | 594 | 659.642708500145 | -65.6427085001445 |
| 65 | 729 | 654.956310122541 | 74.0436898774593 |
| 66 | 731 | 660.242475730908 | 70.7575242690922 |
| 67 | 386 | 665.294033695449 | -279.294033695449 |
| 68 | 331 | 645.354528816824 | -314.354528816824 |
| 69 | 706 | 622.911966840022 | 83.0880331599776 |
| 70 | 715 | 628.843830906819 | 86.1561690931809 |
| 71 | 657 | 634.994736929503 | 22.0052630704967 |
| 72 | 653 | 636.56574811275 | 16.4342518872501 |
| 73 | 642 | 637.739030768833 | 4.26096923116688 |
| 74 | 643 | 638.043232099769 | 4.95676790023128 |
| 75 | 718 | 638.397108251082 | 79.6028917489181 |
| 76 | 654 | 644.080159290085 | 9.91984070991521 |
| 77 | 632 | 644.788361716085 | -12.7883617160851 |
| 78 | 731 | 643.875368346862 | 87.124631653138 |
| 79 | 392 | 650.0954153522 | -258.0954153522 |
| 80 | 344 | 631.669333257021 | -287.669333257021 |
| 81 | 792 | 611.131894637176 | 180.868105362824 |
| 82 | 852 | 624.044524461565 | 227.955475538435 |
| 83 | 649 | 640.318840301639 | 8.68115969836117 |
| 84 | 629 | 640.938610168783 | -11.938610168783 |
| 85 | 685 | 640.086282703872 | 44.9137172961281 |
| 86 | 617 | 643.292786162946 | -26.2927861629464 |
| 87 | 715 | 641.415677901692 | 73.5843220983077 |
| 88 | 715 | 646.669048086712 | 68.3309519132881 |
| 89 | 629 | 651.547366935878 | -22.5473669358779 |
| 90 | 916 | 649.937653591595 | 266.062346408405 |
| 91 | 531 | 668.932514971318 | -137.932514971318 |
| 92 | 357 | 659.085165141459 | -302.085165141459 |
| 93 | 917 | 637.518543955893 | 279.481456044107 |
| 94 | 828 | 657.471429388288 | 170.528570611712 |
| 95 | 708 | 669.645893771458 | 38.3541062285418 |
| 96 | 858 | 672.384090066382 | 185.615909933618 |
| 97 | 775 | 685.635677623414 | 89.3643223765858 |
| 98 | 785 | 692.015621793457 | 92.9843782065433 |
| 99 | 1006 | 698.654010871639 | 307.345989128361 |
| 100 | 789 | 720.596215538758 | 68.4037844612421 |
| 101 | 734 | 725.479734087058 | 8.5202659129418 |
| 102 | 906 | 726.088017341414 | 179.911982658586 |
| 103 | 532 | 738.932387156544 | -206.932387156544 |
| 104 | 387 | 724.158962573645 | -337.158962573645 |
| 105 | 991 | 700.088334604413 | 290.911665395587 |
| 106 | 841 | 720.857251486216 | 120.142748513784 |
| 107 | 892 | 729.434545058961 | 162.565454941039 |
| 108 | 782 | 741.040502547574 | 40.9594974524256 |
| 109 | 811 | 743.964704287484 | 67.0352957125158 |
| 110 | 792 | 748.75052297546 | 43.2494770245402 |
| 111 | 978 | 751.838212127707 | 226.161787872293 |
| 112 | 773 | 767.984472085252 | 5.01552791474762 |
| 113 | 796 | 768.342543262075 | 27.6574567379246 |
| 114 | 946 | 770.317078794609 | 175.682921205391 |
| 115 | 594 | 782.85952525548 | -188.85952525548 |
| 116 | 438 | 769.376367826801 | -331.376367826801 |
| 117 | 1023 | 745.718573868522 | 277.281426131478 |
| 118 | 868 | 765.514393621441 | 102.485606378559 |
| 119 | 791 | 772.831099321651 | 18.1689006783489 |
| 120 | 760 | 774.128222926197 | -14.1282229261969 |
| 121 | 779 | 773.119573488771 | 5.88042651122851 |
| 122 | 852 | 773.539391955917 | 78.4606080440825 |
| 123 | 1001 | 779.140892482709 | 221.859107517291 |
| 124 | 734 | 794.979973247078 | -60.9799732470776 |
| 125 | 996 | 790.626459289152 | 205.373540710848 |
| 126 | 869 | 805.288593896044 | 63.7114061039563 |
| 127 | 599 | 809.837111728756 | -210.837111728756 |
| 128 | 426 | 794.78491901885 | -368.78491901885 |
| 129 | 1138 | 768.456434322475 | 369.543565677525 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 130 | 794.839080715582 | 495.134325515679 | 1094.54383591548 |
| 131 | 794.839080715582 | 494.371514900332 | 1095.30664653083 |
| 132 | 794.839080715582 | 493.610635968992 | 1096.06752546217 |
| 133 | 794.839080715582 | 492.851674120609 | 1096.82648731055 |
| 134 | 794.839080715582 | 492.094614937154 | 1097.58354649401 |
| 135 | 794.839080715582 | 491.339444180423 | 1098.33871725074 |
| 136 | 794.839080715582 | 490.586147788911 | 1099.09201364225 |
| 137 | 794.839080715582 | 489.834711874758 | 1099.84344955641 |
| 138 | 794.839080715582 | 489.085122720763 | 1100.5930387104 |
| 139 | 794.839080715582 | 488.337366777461 | 1101.3407946537 |
| 140 | 794.839080715582 | 487.591430660267 | 1102.0867307709 |
| 141 | 794.839080715582 | 486.847301146676 | 1102.83086028449 |
