Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
47	7874	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8647	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	7792	8699.1859	7295.8696	10102.5022	0.1026	0.5291	0.5291	0.5291
50	6957	8695.945	6612.4018	10779.4881	0.0509	0.8024	0.8024	0.5184
51	7726	8688.4421	6074.2523	11302.6319	0.2353	0.9029	0.9029	0.5124
52	8106	8680.6114	5610.6351	11750.5878	0.3569	0.7289	0.7289	0.5086
53	8890	8672.7556	5192.578	12152.9332	0.4513	0.6252	0.6252	0.5058
54	9299	8664.8978	4805.5597	12524.2359	0.3737	0.4545	0.4545	0.5036
55	10625	8657.0399	4441.2	12872.8798	0.1801	0.3827	0.3827	0.5019
56	9302	8649.182	4094.1757	13204.1883	0.3894	0.1976	0.1976	0.5004
57	8314	8641.324	3760.8713	13521.7768	0.4477	0.3954	0.3954	0.4991
58	8850	8633.4661	3438.7076	13828.2246	0.4674	0.548	0.548	0.498
59	8265	8625.6082	3125.7742	14125.4422	0.4489	0.4681	0.4681	0.497
60	8796	8617.7502	2820.6137	14414.8868	0.476	0.5475	0.5475	0.4961
61	7836	8609.8923	2522.0872	14697.6974	0.4016	0.4761	0.4761	0.4952
62	6892	8602.0344	2229.2869	14974.7819	0.2995	0.5931	0.5931	0.4945
63	7791	8594.1764	1941.4769	15246.8759	0.4065	0.692	0.692	0.4938
64	8129	8586.3185	1658.0524	15514.5846	0.4485	0.589	0.589	0.4932
65	9115	8578.4606	1378.5097	15778.4114	0.4419	0.5487	0.5487	0.4926
66	9434	8570.6026	1102.4253	16038.78	0.4104	0.4432	0.4432	0.492
67	10484	8562.7447	829.4391	16296.0503	0.3132	0.4126	0.4126	0.4915
68	9827	8554.8867	559.2431	16550.5304	0.3776	0.3181	0.3181	0.491
69	9110	8547.0288	291.5712	16802.4864	0.4468	0.3806	0.3806	0.4905
70	9070	8539.1709	26.1923	17052.1494	0.4514	0.4477	0.4477	0.4901
71	8633	8531.3129	-237.0956	17299.7215	0.4909	0.4521	0.4521	0.4897
72	9240	8523.455	-498.4701	17545.3801	0.4381	0.4905	0.4905	0.4893

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0823	-0.1043	0	822986.2023	0	0
50	0.1222	-0.2	0.1521	3023929.6517	1923457.927	1386.8879
51	0.1535	-0.1108	0.1383	926294.7447	1591070.1995	1261.3763
52	0.1804	-0.0662	0.1203	330178.3044	1275847.2258	1129.5341
53	0.2047	0.025	0.1013	47195.1286	1030116.8063	1014.9467
54	0.2272	0.0732	0.0966	402085.5649	925444.9328	962.0005
55	0.2485	0.2273	0.1153	3872866.9361	1346505.219	1160.3901
56	0.2687	0.0755	0.1103	426171.3797	1231463.489	1109.7132
57	0.2882	-0.0379	0.1022	107141.0241	1106538.7707	1051.9215
58	0.307	0.0251	0.0945	46886.9299	1000573.5866	1000.2868
59	0.3253	-0.0418	0.0897	130038.2484	921434.0104	959.9135
60	0.3432	0.0207	0.084	31772.9807	847295.5913	920.4866
61	0.3608	-0.0899	0.0844	598909.2828	828188.9522	910.0489
62	0.378	-0.1988	0.0926	2924217.5081	977905.2776	988.8909
63	0.3949	-0.0935	0.0927	645092.3672	955717.7502	977.6082
64	0.4117	-0.0533	0.0902	209140.1996	909056.6533	953.4446
65	0.4282	0.0625	0.0886	287874.5784	872516.5313	934.0859
66	0.4446	0.1007	0.0892	745455.0401	865457.5595	930.2997
67	0.4608	0.2244	0.0964	3691221.9961	1014182.0036	1007.066
68	0.4769	0.1487	0.099	1618272.1287	1044386.5098	1021.9523
69	0.4928	0.0659	0.0974	316936.5589	1009746.036	1004.8612
70	0.5086	0.0622	0.0958	281779.5586	976656.6506	988.2594
71	0.5244	0.0119	0.0921	10340.258	934642.8944	966.7693
72	0.54	0.0841	0.0918	513436.7288	917092.6375	957.6495